Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Running back position primer

Will the running backs position be able to stop the bleeding? In recent years, a handful of first-rounders have turned to busts while some second- and

Will the running backs position be able to stop the bleeding? In recent years, a handful of first-rounders have turned to busts while some second- and third-rounders increased their value. This makes the first round of the draft very tricky, especially if you draw a late-first round pick. Last season was worse than usual, as nearly half of the first-round running backs stumbled across the finish line.

FANTASY FOOTBALL POSITION RANKINGS AND PROJECTIONS:

• TOP 300
• QB
• RB
• WR
• TE
• K
• DST

Should owners avoid a running back in the first round, or do you stand firm and try to make the best out of a bad situation, grabbing the best running back available, even if that means waiting to get an elite receiver or quarterback? The problem, for the most part, is that teams are splitting up duties with their running backs,which hurts their fantasy value in most formats.

There were only two running backs (Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch) with 300 or more carries last season, compared to an average of five over the previous five years. It makes sense that running backs, while a fragile position, is a group that everyone wants to dip into early, since there are so few featured backs with ample scoring opportunities and relatively few injury concerns.

POSITION PRIMERS: 
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

There will likely be 18-20 running backs drafted by the end of the third round -- that’s more than half of the 36 draft spots in a 12-team league.

You’ll hear some experts extol the virtues of drafting two wide receivers early on, claiming they’re more reliable than running backs. The problem is if most running backs are selected in the first two rounds, then you’ll be left with damaged goods or what-if running backs in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. Roll the dice if you wish, but understand that early-round gambles can put you into a deep hole from which your late-round sleepers can’t save you.

Elite

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs -- One of the backs who amassed 300 carries last season, Charles thrived in new head coach Andy Reid’s offense. He was a workhorse both as a runner and pass catcher, and he has a chance to duplicate that effort in 2014. For those considering LeSean McCoy with their first overall pick instead, they will be happy to know that over the past 10 years or so, the second running back chosen has outscored the first running back about 50-percent of the time. The Chiefs want to give the ball more to Knile Davis, the second-year tailback out of Arkansas, which could mean fewer carries for Charles. The Chiefs’ schedule starts off fairly easy in the first half of the season, but it gets more difficult as the season progresses.

Reach

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos -- Plenty has been made about Ball taking over as the starting tailback in Denver, but it remains shocking that he is a first-round draft pick in many mocks. Knowshon Moreno had a top-five fantasy season for a running back last year, and his exit to Miami opens a huge opportunity in Peyton Manning’s offense. But let’s not forget that the Broncos have famously juggled running backs in John Fox’s tenure. Ever since Fox got to Denver, after killing fantasy owners with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina for years, the Broncos have had a tough time starting the season with the same running back they end up with at the end. Remember when Ronnie Hillman was a great pick in 2012? I like Ball – just not as a first-rounder or even an early second-rounder. I’ll most likely not own him in 2014 because of that.

Steal

Shane Vereen, New England Patriots -- Who doesn’t love a running back with great hands, excellent speed and the ability to score from all over the field – in Tom Brady’s offense? Stevan Ridley is expected to be the starting tailback for New England, but his short leash is probably at its shortest after major fumble issues last year. Vereen broke a small bone in his wrist during the first game of the season last year, a week when he was the only running back to rush for more than 100 yards. He sat out eight games, and while he’s still dealing with wrist issues, he has played through tough injuries in the past. Some see rookie James White as a big threat to steal touches, but considering LeGarrette Blount is now in Pittsburgh, there are still plenty of touches to go around.

Injury-Risk

Arian Foster, Houston Texans -- Back injuries and running backs are rarely a good marriage, and the Texans’ best player enters 2014 reportedly in good health. His injury cost owners that gambled on him last year, as he missed the final nine games. New head coach Bill O’Brien will lean on the running game, which makes a healthy Foster even more integral. While I still like him as a top-10 running back, I like his backup, Andre Brown, as a late-round handcuff even better.

Rookie

Bishop Sankey, Tennesee Titans -- The rookie out of Washington is expected to be both the first rookie drafted in fantasy leagues – and the first Tennessee Titans player. He’s a well-rounded back with good hands, but he’s stepping into an interesting situation with a new head coach in Ken Whisenhunt. It’s tough to justify a fourth-round pick on Sankey when there are other backs, like Vereen, Ryan Mathews and Rashad Jennings available. Getting him in the fifth or sixth round is a good thing, however.

Running back tier explanations

All stats below represent projections for the 2014 season.

First Tier --This first group is stacked with the best players in fantasy football, each of whom are not only featured backs, but they’re also the players the rest of the team has been built around. All four have done it before, year after year, and only an untimely injury will cause them to bust.

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,350	11	65	600	5	6	$60

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,450	10	55	515	3	9	$59

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,150	9	62	525	3	9	$55

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,285	12	35	230	2	10	$53

Second Tier -- Four different second-year running backs proliferate this second tier, only one year after no running back was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft in over 40 years. These guys are still bell cows for their offense, but they have some smaller issues that should drive owners to consider taking elite wide receivers and Jimmy Graham over them.

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,250	11	40	280	2	9	$48

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,150	11	30	265	2	4	$46

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,200	8	50	450	1	12	$45

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,250	8	48	325	2	11	$42

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,150	8	45	310	2	4	$40

Rush YDs	Rush TDs	Rec	REC YDs	Rec TDs	BYE	Value
1,085	9	30	285	2	10	$38

Third Tier -- Whether it’s an injury history (C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews), shared duties (Reggie Bush) or one-note ability (Alfred Morris), this third tier is stacked with the best RB2s in the game.

Fourth Tier -- As we begin to hit the middle rounds of most fantasy drafts, we’re going to see a lot of running backs that are inexperienced as featured backs (Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Bishop Sankey) or running backs with some questions to answer (Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson).

Fifth Tier -- Many of these players are either running backs that will struggle to keep the No. 1 job (Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas) or ones that are very good older backups, with an eye on starting (Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Jackson).

Sixth Tier -- For the most part, these are backups in less favorable setups (Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram) and another stack of rookies looking for a crack to become starters (Terrance West, Devonta Freeman, Tre Mason).

Seventh Tier -- As we move outside of the top-50 running backs, we’re entering sleeper territory. There are some stellar handcuff options in this grouping, led by Knile Davis and Christine Michael.

Eighth Tier -- While many of these players are essentially backups (Bryce Brown, James White, Latavius Murray) behind their team’s running back duos, they’re still talented enough to serve as quality fantasy starters if the move up a level on the depth chart.

Ninth Tier -- When you look up “longshots” in the fantasy dictionary, you’ll see pictures of guys like Isaiah Crowell, the former SEC Freshman of the Year, and Marcus Lattimore, who suffered a horrific knee injury and still isn’t quite right.

Tenth Tier -- These players are essentially buried on the depth chart as their team’s third running back, but many in this group have exceptional speed. That means they could score from any distance – if they ever got enough snaps.

	PLAYER	TEAM	BYE	VALUE	RUSH YDs	RUSH TDs	RECS	REC YDS	REC TDs	TIER
1	Jamaal Charles	KC	6	$60	1,350	11	65	600	5	1
2	LeSean McCoy	PHI	7	$59	1,450	10	55	515	3	1
3	Matt Forte	CHI	9	$55	1,225	9	62	525	3	1
4	Adrian Peterson	MIN	10	$53	1,285	12	35	230	2	1
5	Eddie Lacy	GB	9	$48	1,250	11	40	280	2	2
6	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	4	$46	1,150	11	30	265	2	2
7	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	12	$45	1,200	8	50	450	1	2
8	DeMarco Murray	DAL	11	$42	1,175	8	48	325	2	2
9	Montee Ball	DEN	4	$40	1,150	8	45	310	2	2
10	Arian Foster	HOU	10	$38	1,085	9	30	285	2	2
11	Giovani Bernard	CIN	4	$36	1,025	5	50	415	4	3
12	Doug Martin	TB	7	$34	1,115	5	46	350	2	3
13	Alfred Morris	WAS	10	$32	1,300	10	10	85	0	3
14	Reggie Bush	DET	9	$28	975	5	55	425	3	3
15	C.J. Spiller	BUF	9	$26	1,050	6	40	350	2	3
16	Andre Ellington	ARI	4	$22	900	4	50	425	2	3
17	Ryan Mathews	SD	10	$20	1,075	6	20	165	1	3
18	Zac Stacy	STL	4	$19	1,025	7	20	115	1	3
19	Rashad Jennings	NYG	8	$17	925	6	33	255	1	4
20	Shane Vereen	NE	10	$16	675	3	65	625	4	4
21	Toby Gerhart	JAC	11	$14	900	6	30	245	1	4
22	Frank Gore	SF	8	$12	985	6	20	140	1	4
23	Ben Tate	CLE	4	$12	845	5	24	230	1	4
24	Joique Bell	DET	9	$11	680	5	48	490	1	4
25	Chris Johnson	NYJ	11	$11	905	5	36	255	1	4
26	Bishop Sankey	TEN	9	$10	820	7	25	180	1	4
27	Trent Richardson	IND	10	$10	875	5	40	240	1	4
28	Stevan Ridley	NE	10	$8	1,020	6	10	60	0	4
29	Ray Rice	BAL	11	$8	790	5	40	285	1	4
30	Steven Jackson	ATL	9	$7	880	5	30	175	1	5
31	Pierre Thomas	NO	6	$6	540	2	75	505	4	5
32	Lamar Miller	MIA	5	$5	820	4	32	265	1	5
33	Maurice Jones-Drew	OAK	5	$4	580	5	40	280	2	5
34	Danny Woodhead	SD	10	$4	380	2	65	595	4	5
35	Fred Jackson	BUF	9	$4	645	5	35	245	1	5
36	Bernard Pierce	BAL	11	$3	585	6	30	180	1	6
37	Darren Sproles	PHI	7	$3	180	1	80	680	4	6
38	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	12	$3	785	2	20	185	1	6
39	Knowshon Moreno	MIA	5	$3	615	4	32	230	1	6
40	Chris Ivory	NYJ	11	$3	735	6	4	20	0	6
41	Terrance West	CLE	4	$3	645	4	20	165	1	6
42	Devonta Freeman	ATL	9	$2	460	4	35	280	1	6
43	Tre Mason	STL	4	$2	480	5	24	185	1	6
44	Darren McFadden	OAK	5	$2	455	5	25	190	1	6
45	Jeremy Hill	CIN	4	$2	540	6	12	80	0	6
46	Mark Ingram	NO	6	$2	515	5	15	90	1	6
47	Andre Brown	HOU	10	$2	565	4	25	145	0	6
48	Carlos Hyde	SF	8	$2	410	4	30	180	2	7
49	Khiry Robinson	NO	6	$2	655	4	8	50	0	7
50	Christine Michael	SEA	4	$1	515	3	15	120	1	7
51	Shonn Greene	TEN	9	$1	470	5	8	60	0	7
52	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	12	$1	375	2	24	195	1	7
53	LeGarrette Blount	PIT	12	$1	420	4	4	35	0	7
54	Knile Davis	KC	6	$1	360	4	15	85	0	7
55	Donald Brown	SD	10	$1	380	3	18	140	0	7
56	Ahmad Bradshaw	IND	10	$1	345	3	15	95	1	7
57	Lance Dunbar	DAL	11	$0	310	3	12	125	1	8
58	Andre Williams	NYG	8	$0	330	3	6	40	2	8
59	Roy Helu	WAS	10	$0	190	2	40	295	1	8
60	Stepfan Taylor	ARI	4	$0	275	3	20	125	1	8
61	James Starks	GB	9	$0	380	3	12	80	0	8
62	C.J. Anderson	DEN	4	$0	415	2	16	95	0	8
63	Bryce Brown	BUF	9	$0	380	3	8	70	0	8
64	Latavius Murray	OAK	5	$0	360	2	10	85	1	8
65	Charles Sims	TB	7	$0	155	1	30	260	2	8
66	James White	NE	10	$0	260	2	18	150	1	8
67	Jordan Todman	JAC	11	$0	310	2	25	155	0	9
68	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	4	$0	290	2	10	115	1	9
69	Mike Tolbert	CAR	12	$0	260	2	23	140	1	9
70	Ka'Deem Carey	CHI	9	$0	250	2	30	135	1	9
71	Jacquizz Rodgers	ATL	9	$0	175	1	43	260	1	9
72	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	CIN	4	$0	345	3	5	20	0	9
73	Lache Seastrunk	WAS	10	$0	325	2	8	65	0	9
74	Marcus Lattimore	SF	8	$0	305	2	12	80	0	9
75	Marcel Reece	OAK	5	$0	220	1	24	240	0	9
76	Chris Polk	PHI	7	$0	260	1	15	165	0	9
77	Brandon Bolden	NE	10	$0	235	2	18	115	0	9
78	Robert Turbin	SEA	4	$0	250	2	12	90	0	9
79	Daniel Thomas	MIA	5	$0	235	2	12	95	0	9
80	Bobby Rainey	TB	7	$0	285	2	9	40	0	9
81	Denard Robinson	JAC	11	$0	245	1	5	35	1	10
82	Ryan Williams	DAL	11	$0	280	1	5	50	0	10
83	Joseph Randle	DAL	11	$0	180	2	15	85	0	10
84	Mike James	TB	7	$0	280	1	10	45	0	10
85	Jonathan Dwyer	ARI	4	$0	250	1	10	70	0	10
86	Storm Johnson	JAC	11	$0	165	0	13	105	0	10
87	Dri Archer	PIT	12	$0	90	0	13	115	1	10
88	Benny Cunningham	STL	4	$0	155	1	5	45	0	10
89	Bilal Powell	NYJ	11	$0	135	0	18	125	0	10
90	Travaris Cadet	NO	6	$0	150	1	6	45	0	10
91	Ronnie Hillman	DEN	4	$0	135	0	15	115	0	10
92	DuJuan Harris	GB		$0	180	1	13	85	0	10