NFL Strength of Schedule: Javonte Williams, Damien Harris Have Favorable Fantasy Matchups Among Running Backs

Here's a breakdown of fantasy points against for every team's schedule of opponents.

For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs overall last season. However, their defense was tougher at home (22.3 PPG allowed) than on the road (29.2 PPG allowed). Therefore, a road runner who faces the Steelers at Heinz Field receives 22.3 points. On the flip side, a back who faces Pittsburgh at home receives 29.2 points. This goes a step deeper than typical FPA analysis, which is based on a combined average of the home and road numbers. The bigger the overall point total per team, the easier the projected schedule.

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: QB | RB | WR | TE

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As you can see, the difference between the easiest schedule (Broncos – 24.5 PPG) and the toughest slate (Eagles – 22.2 PPG) is not significant (2.3 PPG). However, strength of schedule isn’t the be-all, end-all in determining a player’s value. Instead, it should be seen as a useful tool in making decisions between non-elite players with similar value. Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Harris, for example, will be listed in close proximity in most rankings, but Harris gets the edge since his schedule is easier.

I’ve also included a comparison between the FPA totals in 2020 and 2021 to find any increases or decreases in fantasy points allowed against a particular position. A total of three teams were tougher against runners by at least two points a game compared to 2020. On the flip side, 21 teams allowed one or fewer more points in 2021. This is notable, as most teams didn’t see a major change in points allowed the past two years.

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Notes

• Javonte Williams has seen his stock fall with the re-signing of Melvin Gordon, but the duo does have the most favorable schedule among running backs. That is due in large part to the fact that the Raiders and Chargers were among the six worst teams in the NFL against backs last season. The Chiefs weren’t great either, allowing the 13th-most points to runners. The Broncos also face the Jets, Texans and Seahawks in 2022.

• The top two rookie running backs, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker, are on teams that rank tied for 17th in terms of fantasy points allowed data. Hall remains the better of the two backs from a fantasy perspective, at least in seasonal formats, but that’s due to a projected starting role as a rookie. Walker could be in a committee with two other runners, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, in a worst-case scenario for his draft value.

• Damien Harris, who scored 15 touchdowns and was the RB14 last season, has the third-easiest schedule at his position heading into 2022. It includes two games against the Jets, who allowed the most points to backs, and games versus the Steelers, Lions, Bengals, Raiders and Vikings. Those teams were 11th or worse against backs in 2021.

• The Eagles runners have the toughest slate of games for 2022, but again there isn’t a huge difference between the best schedule and the worst at the position. It is notable though that Philadelphia ran the football more than any other team in the league last season. That should change, though, with the addition of star wideout A.J. Brown.

• Cordarrelle Patterson, who finished last season as the RB9, could be a potential bust candidate in 2022. The schedule won’t help change that notion, as Atlanta’s backs have the second-toughest slate. The team also added Tyler Allgeier in the draft, and reports suggest Patterson could be used more as a wide receiver compared to 2021. I’d consider Patterson a flex option in most leagues, but regression seems to be imminent.

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!