NFL Strength of Schedule: Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams Have Favorable Fantasy Matchups Among Wide Receivers

Here's a breakdown of fantasy points against for every team's schedule of opponents.

The NFL has a strength of schedule formula that's very simple to understand ... take the opponents' records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage for all 17 opponents. In the world of fantasy football, we use a similar method. Instead of using team records, we use the number of fantasy points allowed (FPA) by defenses the previous season against a single position (both at home and on the road) and rank the teams/players according to the average.

For example, the Houston Texans allowed an average of 36 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers overall last season. However, their defense was tougher on the road (32.7 PPG allowed) than at home (38.2 PPG allowed). Therefore, a wideout who faces the Texans at home receives 38.2 points. On the flip side, a home receiver who faces Houston receives 32.7 points. This goes a step deeper than typical FPA analysis, which is based on a combined average of the home and road numbers. The bigger the overall point total per team, the easier the projected schedule for next season.

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: QB | RB | WR | TE

Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today network

As you can see, the difference between the easiest schedule (Cowboys – 36.5 PPG) and the toughest slate (Chiefs - 32 PPG) is significant (4.5 PPG). However, strength of schedule isn’t the be-all, end-all in determining a player’s value. Instead, it should be seen as a useful tool in making decisions between non-elite players with similar value. Hunter Renfrow and JuJu Smith-Schuster, for example, will be listed in close proximity in most rankings, but Renfrow has the edge since his slate is easier.

I’ve also included a comparison between the FPA point totals in 2020 and 2021 to find any increases or decreases in fantasy points allowed against a particular position. There was a pretty big difference at the top, as 14 teams allowed three or fewer points per game compared to 2020. So, wideouts scored slightly fewer points overall. On the flip side, 13 teams experienced a change of one or fewer points to the position.

For those fantasy managers who want to see a deeper breakdown into the wideouts, I have also added FPA totals for both receivers lined out wide and receivers in the slot.

Notes

• The three best teams in terms of schedules among wide receivers are all in the NFC East: Cowboys, Eagles and Giants. That’s due in large part to the fact that all three play the Commanders twice in addition to the AFC South. That division includes three teams (Titans, Jaguars, Texans) that were in the top nine in allowing the most points to receivers. The fourth team (Colts) allowed the 14th-most points to wideouts.

• The Bengals have one of the top wideout trios in the league in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and their 2022 schedule is a favorable one. While the Ravens (who they play twice) should improve, their defense did allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2021. Cincinnati also faces the NFC South, the Jets and Titans among their easier opponents for next season.

• Davante Adams will be playing in Las Vegas this season after a monumental trade, and he’ll benefit from a schedule that includes games against the Chiefs (twice), Cardinals, 49ers and the AFC South. The fantasy star will have more competition for targets in the Raiders’ pass attack than he had in Green Bay in recent years, but Adams does benefit from the schedule and the promise of some shootouts in the AFC West.

• The other big-name wideout who was moved this offseason was Tyreek Hill, who was traded to the Dolphins. I don’t love the move for his fantasy value, and the schedule won’t do him or Jaylen Waddle any favors. The Bills and Patriots allowed the fewest and the third-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, respectively, last season, and another foe, the Chargers, allowed the third fewest. Hill remains a top-10 wideout receiver in drafts but going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa plus the tough slate is a concern.

• Hill’s former team, Kansas City, has the toughest slate of games for wide receivers. The Chargers, Raiders and Broncos were among the eight toughest teams for wideouts to score on last season, not to mention games versus the Buccaneers and Bengals. This wouldn’t have mattered much in the past with Hill on the roster, but it could make the likes of Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore a bit less attractive.

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for all of the late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!