Chicago Bears 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Cole Kmet Breakout

The Windy City tight end is in position to become a fantasy fixture.

Shawn Childs | Jun 16, 2022

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Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears bring in their fourth coaching staff over the past decade. The first question is whether Justin Fields is a franchise quarterback and if he can develop and add new dimensions to his game. RB David Montgomery struggled to make big plays last year, but was his regression a team issue or his lack of explosiveness? Their wide receiving corps doesn’t look like an edge on paper, and the Bears need TE Cole Kmet to make a step forward in his third season.

OFFENSE

With a running back quarterback added to the Bears’ offense, Chicago ran the ball 46.7% of the time. Their overall offense lacks star power while trending toward the bottom of the league in scoring.

QUARTERBACKS

Justin Fields – click here for fantasy projections

Other options: Trevor Siemian, Nathan Peterman

RUNNING BACKS

The rushing production for the Bears’ backs improved in back-to-back seasons with repeated success in scoring (11 touchdowns). They finished with 2,018 combined yards with 12 scores and 73 catches. Their running backs gained short yards per rush (4.0) and per catch (6.9).

David Montgomery – click here for fantasy projections

Khalil Herbert
Herbert has early-down potential and needs rhythm timing to excel through the line of scrimmage. When on the move, he flows to the hole with the vision and acceleration to reach the second level of the defense. Herbert gets in trouble when hitting road blocks due to his gearing and taking several steps to reach peak speed. His pass protection is below par with minimal early value in the passing game.

With Montgomery injured over four games, he gained 388 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches on 87 touches. Unfortunately, he barely touches the ball over his other 12 matchups (141 yards on 30 touches).

Fantasy outlook: Herbert played well enough last year to be the top handcuff at running back this season. His ADP (153) should make him an easy add for anyone drafting Montgomery. However, his role will be minimal without an injury.

Darrynton Evans
A hamstring injury cost Evans 11 games in his rookie season. He finished with only 81 combined yards with a touchdown and two catches on 16 touches. Last season, the Titans only gave him four touches with 18 yards and two catches.

Fantasy outlook: Evans brings plus speed and change of pace value. This season, he’ll compete for a bench role on the Bears. His first step is staying healthy.

Other options: Trestan Ebner, De’Montre Tuggle

WIDE RECEIVERS

The wide receiver output in 2021 came at three-year lows in catches (176), receiving yards (2,269), targets (306), and touchdowns (9). The only positive was a step up in yards per catch (12.89). Chicago needs to rebuild their offense and receiving structure, pointing to weak stats across the board again this season.

Darnell Mooney – click here for fantasy projections

Byron Pringle
The Chiefs gave Pringle his best opportunity (60 targets) in 2021, leading to 42 catches for 568 yards and five touchdowns. His best play came from Week 16 to Week 20 (6/75/2, 3/35, 5/56, 5/37/2, and 5/29/1). He only has 67 catches for 898 yards and seven touchdowns on 93 targets in his three seasons with Kansas City. Pringle will start the year at age 28, signing a one-year deal worth $4.1 million in mid-March.

Fantasy outlook: Even with growth last year, a fantasy drafter shouldn’t expect another year of progression in his stat after signing with Chicago. The change in offenses is negative, and he didn't make enough plays with the Chiefs to be considered a viable fantasy starter in 2022.

Velus Jones
When reviewing NFL draft picks, one of my pet peeves is drafting older players with their early selections. For example, Chicago added Jones (age 25) in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft after he showed improvement in 2021 at Tennessee (62/807/7). The Bears wanted a wideout with plus speed (low 4.3s in the 40-yard dash) to test defenses in the deep passing game and improve their return, but his window to develop and produce looks relatively short. Over five seasons in college, Jones had 120 catches for 1,434 yards and 12 touchdowns on 166 targets. His catch rate (72.3) came in better than expected, but he didn't make enough big plays (11.9 yards per catch).

Fantasy outlook: Jones will have minimal chances to catch the ball this year. He averaged 24.4 yards on his 122 kickoff returns in his career, with two scores. His first chance at returning punts came in 2021 (18/272 – 15.1 yards per return). Jones may be an upgrade to the Bears’ defense/special teams in the fantasy world.

Equanimeous St. Brown
Injuries at wide receiver helped St. Brown get meaningful snaps over the last 12 games of 2018 with the Packers. His best success came in Week 5 (3/89) and Week 16 (5/94) while failing to score. He finished with 21 catches for 328 yards on 36 targets.

St. Brown missed all of 2019 with a high ankle sprain while also sitting out nine games in 2020 with knee and concussion issues. Over the last two seasons, he only had 16 catches for 215 yards and one touchdown on 30 targets.

Fantasy outlook: St. Brown offers an edge in size (6’5” and 215 lbs), but he doesn’t bring enough to the table to be considered a fantasy player of value.

Other options: Tajae Sharpe, Dazz Newsome, Dante Pettis

TIGHT ENDS

The Bears’ tight ends received 25% of the team’s completions last season while also seeing an improvement in their yards per catch (10.4). They finished with three-year highs in catches (83) and receiving yards (862), with some value in scoring over the past two seasons (15 touchdowns).

Cole Kmet
Based on Chicago’s wide receiving options, Kmet has to be their second option in the passing game behind Darnell Mooney. After a quiet rookie season (28/243/2), he more than doubled his production in catches (60) and yards (612) while failing to find paydirt. His catch rate (64.5) should command more looks this year.

After a quiet first eight weeks (22/197 on 36 targets), Kmet posted three playable games (6/87, 8/65, and 6/71) over his final nine starts. The Bears gave him only 5.5 targets per game. Chicago did toss six touchdowns to their tight ends, suggesting that Kmet could be much better in this area in 2022.

Kmet had minimal chances over his first two years (2/14 and 15/162) at Notre Dame. His game pushed to an attractive NFL level over ten games (43/515/6) in 2019 despite missing the last two contests with a broken collarbone.

The Bears will look to get him in space with motion before the snap to help gain an earlier edge in pass patterns. Kmet will invite more scoring upside on delays or misdirection plays at the goal line when overlooked as a scoring threat.

Fantasy outlook: Based on team structure and potential growth, Kmet is in the mix to be a potential breakout tight end this season. He finished 20th in tight end scoring (121.20) in PPR leagues while drawing the 16th ranking in the early draft season of the NFFC with an ADP of 142. Kmet is on a path to catching 75 passes for 850 yards with five touchdowns, making him a top-six tight end.

Other options: Ryan Griffin, James O’Shaughnessy, Rysen John

KICKER

Cairo Santos
Over his two seasons with the Bears, Santos made 56 of his 62 field goals (90.3%) with two misses in his 65 extra-point tries. His leg doesn’t project well from long range (10-for-22 in his career from 50 yards or more).

Fantasy outlook: Chicago won't create enough scoring chance to make Santos's fantasy relevant in many games this year. At best, he would offer matchup value for a fantasy manager willing to micro-manage the kicking position.

COACHING

Chicago brought in Matt Eberflus to take over as their head coach. Over the last four seasons, he worked as the defensive coordinator for the Colts. Eberflus has been in the NFL since 2009, with most of his experience coming with the Cowboys (seven years).

The offense now lies in the hands of Luke Getsy. He earned his way up the coaching ranks in Green Bay as their quarterback's coach and passing game coordinator from 2019 to 2021. He has seven seasons of NFL coaching experience, all coming with the Packers.

The Bears slipped to 27th in points scored (311) and 24th in yards allowed. They’ve had a bottom-tier offense eight times over the past nine seasons.

Alan Williams gets his second chance in the NFL to run a defense (his first came with the Vikings in 2012 and 2013). He worked under Matt Eberflus in Indianapolis as their defensive backs coach for three seasons. Williams has been coaching in the NFL since 2001.

Over the past five years, Chicago ranked in the top 11 in the NFL in yards allowed each season. Despite finishing sixth in yards allowed in 2021, the Bears fell to 22nd points allowed (407), a third straight year of regression.

FREE AGENCY

Chicago lost three players off their defensive line (DT Justin Jones, DE Akiem Hicks, and DE Bilal Nichols) to free agency. WR Allen Robinson signed with the Rams, and G James Daniels landed on the Steelers. The top players added were DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, G Lucas Patrick, WR Byron Pringle, and QB Nick Foles.

DRAFT

The Bears didn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2022. They invested in CB Kyler Gordon and S Jaquan Brisker with their two selections in the second round. Improving the depth and upside of their offensive line led to four players added in the late rounds (T Braxton Jones – 5.25, G Zach Thomas – 6.7, C Doug Kramer – 6.29, and G Ja’Tyre Carter – 7.5). Chicago took a swing on two offensive players (WR Velus Jones – 3.7 and RB Trestan Ebner – 6.25). They also drafted two more defensive players (DE Dominique Robinson – 5.31 and CB Elijah Hicks – 7.33). Their final selection went to the kicking game (P Trenton Gill – 7.34).

OFFENSIVE LINE

Chicago jumped to 14th in rushing yards (2,018) with 124rushing touchdowns and 13 runs over 20 yards. Their ball carriers gained 4.2 yards per rush.

The Bears dipped to 25th in passing yards (3,635 yards) with only 16 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Their offensive line allowed 58 sacks with 40 completions over 20 yards.

This offensive line doesn’t have one proven player, and all positions except left tackle appear to be in transition. LT Teven Jenkins missed 11 games in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round in 2021. In his limited playing time, he struggled in all areas. As a result, the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

DEFENSE

The Bears fell to 24th in rushing yards allowed (2,127) with 14 touchdowns and 12 runs over 20 yards. Opponents rushed for 4.4 yards per carry.

Surprisingly, Chicago improved to third in passing yards allowed (3,257) despite allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (28th) with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Their defense finished with 49 sacks while giving up 48 catches over 20 yards.

Their defensive line will struggle to get to the quarterback while offering risk against the run. I can’t see DE Robert Quinn repeating his value in the pass rush (18.5 sacks). LB Roquan Smith will get plenty of tackles, but the lack of supporting cast around him drags his ability to make impact plays. When adding a weak pass rush, the Bears’ secondary doesn’t have the talent to rank highly in any areas in 2022. As a result, I don’t see any reason to roster this defense in fantasy leagues.

Published Jun 16, 2022

SHAWN CHILDS