Patrick Mahomes Has Bad News and an Apology for Fantasy Managers

The Chiefs QB says offense will have a different star every week.

One of the biggest mysteries for fantasy managers heading into the 2022 NFL season is exactly how the Chiefs plan to replace the 159 targets that Tyreek Hill received last year. After trading Hill to the Dolphins in the offseason, Kansas City signed veterans Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and then drafted Skyy Moore. Of course, tight end Travis Kelce was targeted 134 times in 2021, so it’s a safe bet he’ll be the Chiefs’ top pass catcher this season.

Kelce caught 92 passes for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns last season, and there’s a good reason why he’s a high second-round pick in most fantasy drafts and occasionally a low first-rounder. But how should fantasy managers tackle the other Kansas City receivers? Quarterback Patrick Mahomes offered this clue:

I asked Patrick Mahomes about what will surprise people about the Chiefs' offense this year — he said it's going to a different player every week.

He then apologized to Chiefs fantasy owners everywhere.

— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) September 7, 2022

A different player every week? Good to see that Mahomes can at least sympathize with fantasy managers. Still, Mahomes has averaged 4,600 passing yards and 38 TD passes over the last four years, so there should be enough to go around.

Here’s a look at where the top options in the Chiefs’ passing attack are being taken based on average draft position at the National Fantasy Football Championship:

JuJu Smith-Schuster – 69.5 ADP, WR31
Skyy Moore – 129 ADP, WR 52
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 139.5 ADP, WR56
Mecole Hardman – 150 ADP, WR59

Two things to consider: The ADP data suggests that Smith-Schuster is clearly the best option among Chiefs receivers. Even with Kelce getting a majority of targets, it’s hard to imagine Mahomes’s No. 2 target being just the 31st-best fantasy receiver. Smith-Schuster should probably be going higher than this.

Hardman is the only player among this quartet who’s caught a pass from Mahomes in a regular-season game. Hardman had 59 receptions for 693 yards and two touchdowns last season. His receptions and yardage totals have increased each season, and that was with Hill in the picture. Hardman had six touchdowns as a rookie in 2019, and I’d expect him to surpass that number this season.

Conclusion: At their current ADPs, Smith-Schuster and Hardman are better fantasy values than Moore and Valdes-Scantling. Of course, if you have just one Chief on your fantasy roster, you want it to be Kelce.