The Second-Guessing Can Stop (For Now) As the Ryder Cup is Almost Here

U.S. captain's pick Justin Thomas played well this week in a tuneup, so did pretty much the entire European team. Bring on Marco Simone.

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The Fortinet Championship, and to a lesser degree the BMW PGA Championship, were always going to be a mini-referendum on the respective U.S. and European captains picks for the Ryder Cup.

It is likely a product of the way we like to overanalyze a fun aspect of the biennial competition. The debates and discussions are part of the buildup and the various choices, pros and cons, make for interesting fodder in the leadup to the picks.

The derision is something else. It’s disappointing to see some of the vitriol directed at Zach Johnson for picking Justin Thomas. Or toward Luke Donald for picking Ludvig Aberg or even Nicolai Hojgaard.

Thomas got into contention at the Fortinet, shooting 65 Saturday before finishing fifth, his best result since he finished fourth at the WM Phoenix Open in February.

Justin Thomas had his best finish in seven months this week at the Fortinet :: Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images

"I’m putting myself in a lot better positions to have good things happen, but more than anything, mentally I truly believe that good things are going to happen, so that’s at least a good start," Thomas said over the weekend in Napa.

Aberg, who won a DP World Tour event the day before Donald’s picks were announced two weeks ago, held the 54-hole lead at the BMW PGA but faded on Sunday to a tie for 10th after a 76. Hojgaard finished well back but was among all 12 European Ryder Cup players to make the cut; seven finished among the top 10.

No doubt, the picks were controversial. There were other choices, and you could make a strong argument for them.

And yet, that’s the entire point of having picks. To give the captains flexibility. To go beyond the basic stroke-play results that lead to the six automatic picks and think through the various analytics, team dynamics, pairings, etc.

The case of Thomas is particularly odd. No doubt, he had a poor year and it would not have been a surprise to see him bypassed. But there were always going to be nine or 10 players vying for those six spots that went to Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler and Sam Burns.

Other than Koepka—who finished seventh in the points despite playing in far fewer qualifying events due to playing in the LIV Golf League—you could poke holes in any of those players.

If you don’t pick Thomas you might as well not pick Spieth, either. They’ve proven to be good partners which is likely why they are both on the team. But Spieth didn’t win in 2023, either. Morikawa was was difficult to pass up due to his solid iron play but he hasn't won since the 2021 British Open. Fowler’s only victory in the last four years came in July but he cooled off afterward and has a losing Ryder Cup record. Burns didn’t do much after winning the Match Play in March.

So, sure, Cam Young could have easily been a pick. Same with Keegan Bradley, who won twice in the last season. Lucas Glover got hot at the end of the year. Tony Finau has had success in previous Ryder Cups. Same for both Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau of LIV Golf.

There were numerous choices with only so many spots, and Thomas took the brunt of the heat after missing the cut in three major championships this year and failing to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs.

But his 6-2-1 Ryder Cup record is difficult to overlook for a side that has always seemingly struggled with proper pairings. Thomas was 3-1 with Spieth in Paris, 1-1 at Whistling Straits. They also went 4-0 at last year’s Presidents Cup.

It should be noted that Johnson was an assistant captain on all of those teams and in the backroom to see what was going on.

You can probably pencil them in for at least one match together on the first day of the Ryder Cup, along with Scottie Scheffler and Burns and Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. If you send those same groups out again at any point on Saturday, that means you’ve got your pairings settled for six of the 16 team matches—and that’s not even including Koepka, U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, British Open winner Brian Harman, Morikawa, Fowler and Max Homa.

For Donald, the Aberg pick was controversial because just six months ago the Swede was playing college golf and has yet to compete in a major championship. He stumbled Sunday, but a win at the BMW PGA Championship would not have assured success in Rome, just as a tough finish doesn’t mean he won’t prosper in his first Ryder Cup.

Aberg is likely a smaller part anyway, with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood leading the way.

Both captains have made clear that the undulating nature of Marco Simone Golf Club coupled with warm temperatures will likely mean that few, if any, players will see action in all four team matches. So that ability to mix and match and find the right partnerships is even more crucial.

The picks will remain controversial. It’s fair to wonder if somebody else might be better. This weekend’s results might have alleviated some concerns, but were unlikely to change minds. We’ll have to wait to see how it all plays out—and that wait is nearly over.