The Astros Beast vs. the NL East

Have we finally found Houston’s kryptonite? Plus, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and more.

Astros third baseman Alex Bregman celebrates with first baseman Yuli Gurriel after beating the Yankees last night to clinch their fourth AL pennant in six years :: John Minchillo/AP

An interesting pattern is developing, though I’m not sure we can attribute it to anything more than coincidence. At the end of the last three full-length seasons, the Astros have gone to the World Series to face an NL East team that wasn’t expected to make it that far.

There’s an easy explanation for the first part: Houston is just better than the other American League clubs, by what feels like a wide margin. Just ask the Yankees, who have lost to the Astros in three of the last six AL Championship Series, including the one that ended last night in a sweep.

“Right now, they’re better than us,” said righthander Luis Severino, who started Game 2 for New York, a 3–2 loss in Houston. “They do everything well. And the bottom line is we need to be better if we want to beat those guys.”

“It stings to say this, but congratulations to them,” said first baseman Anthony Rizzo. “What they’ve done for the last six, seven years of their run, and getting there after the whole controversy, continuing to get to the ALCS and push on the door for the World Series—is not easy. … What they’re doing has been incredible, and it just sucks for us.”

That the Yankees know the Astros are better than them says a heck of a lot about Houston over the last six years, because New York is really, really good, too. Since 2017, the year the Astros won the World Series and kicked off this run of four AL pennants in six seasons, only three teams have won at least 500 regular-season games: the Dodgers (562), the Astros (541) and the Yankees (518). Yes, the Astros illegally stole signs in ’17 and part of ’18, but they have remained the best team in the AL even after they were caught cheating. This doesn’t excuse their transgressions—if anything, it makes their sign stealing all the more inexcusable, because they were good enough to win without cheating—but it is indicative of their organization’s excellence.

Moreover, only five of the players from that 2017 team (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr.) are still with the Astros today. Center fielder George Springer left as a free agent after the ’20 season, and shortstop Carlos Correa signed with the Twins this March. As Stephanie Apstein wrote last week in her column after their ALCS Game 1 win, “The details change. The results stay the same.”

Somehow, over the last three full seasons, the only teams that could stop Houston were the 2019 Nationals, a 93-win wild-card team, and last year’s Braves, whose 88 regular-season wins were the fewest among the 10 playoff teams. Both Washington and Atlanta caught fire at the right time and were probably better than their regular-season records suggest. Yet even now, despite knowing they beat the Astros in the World Series, it’s hard to say that either of them was better than Houston.

This, of course, brings us to the current NL-champion Phillies, who finished third in their division with an 87–75 record and would not have qualified for the postseason had it not added two teams, one from each league, this year. Like Washington in 2019, Philadelphia has a strong top of the rotation that is silencing opposing lineups. Like Atlanta in ’21, Philly has the fewest wins of any NL playoff team. And like both of the eventual World Series winners, the Phillies have a Hall of Fame–level talent who is having a career-defining postseason anchoring their lineup.

The Astros should win this thing. They are the better team. Then again, maybe that doesn’t matter. Maybe there’s something more to winning the World Series than just being the better team. Maybe we’ve found Houston’s kryptonite. Maybe the only opponents that can stop the Astros during their remarkable stretch of dominance are flawed NL East teams that few people saw coming.

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1. THE OPENER

Harper’s pennant-winning two-run homer in the eighth inning of NLCS Game 5 will go down as one of the greatest home runs by the greatest of players :: Matt Rourke/AP

“Postseason baseball is about the spin of a roulette wheel. Unlike football and basketball, where you can give the big moment to your best player, baseball is about taking turns. It is the most democratic of our games. And so as the big wheel slows to a stop, the bouncing ball may stop in the crook of a Cookie Lavagetto or Bobby Thomson or Gene Larkin or Travis Ishikawa or any one of nine spots in a lineup. Those are moments of serendipity.

“And then there are legends.

“The intersection of the great player and the great moment is sport at its best. It is Henry Aaron hitting a walkoff homer to win the 1957 pennant. Just say the name and the year and you know. Carlton Fisk in ’75, Kirby Puckett in ’91, David Ortiz in 2013.

“And now this: Bryce Harper in 2022.”

Man, Tom Verducci is the best at capturing the big moment. This is how he begins his column after the Phillies clinched the NL pennant yesterday over the Padres, thanks to Harper’s two-strike, two-run home run in the eighth inning, which turned a 3–2 deficit into a 4–3 win.

Bryce Harper’s Legend Grows As He Sends the Phillies to the World Series by Tom Verducci
He has been in the spotlight since he was 16 years old, and he has lived up to the hype.

2. ICYMI

Aaron Judge may have played his final game with the Yankees :: Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

Let’s get you caught up on some of our other recent stories.

Yankees’ Elimination Turns Attention, Again, Toward Aaron Judge by Stephanie Apstein
New York’s face of the franchise is set to enter free agency after a historic season that lost momentum during the playoffs. What happens next?

Victory Belle: Inside the Phillies’ Post-Win Celebration by Emma Baccellieri
Sheree McMullen has a crucial job for the NL champions, beyond her official duties as the team’s massage therapist. She holds the liberty bell for the players.

SI:AM | Bryce Harper Might Be the Only Thing That Can Stop the Astros by Dan Gartland
Two unstoppable forces are set to meet in the World Series later this week.

Also, Nick Selbe put together a compilation of Sports Illustrated’s best Harper stories over the years. You should definitely check them out today and over the next few days ahead of us before the World Series.

3. WORTH NOTING from Stephanie Apstein

Perhaps no one is better equipped to speak to the gap between the Astros and the Yankees than Gerrit Cole, who pitched in Houston in 2018 and ’19 before signing a nine-year, $324 million deal in New York. He summed it up nicely after Game 4: “They beat us in every facet. My expertise is not in general managing or acquiring or building rosters, so it's hard for me to answer, but I watched the series and I didn’t really see an area where we played better than them.”

4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe

Finally, the stage is set. Bryce Harper’s heroics have the Phillies back in the World Series for the first time since 2009, while the Astros wrapped up their domination of the Yankees in Sunday’s 6–5 win to complete the sweep. As a result, though, there will be no baseball today, tomorrow or for the rest of the week until Friday’s Game 1 in Houston. The Astros will be playing in their fourth Fall Classic in six years and will be looking for the franchise’s second championship. Houston is a heavy favorite, but given the Phillies’ Team of Destiny vibe, don’t count on this being anything other than a white-knuckle thrill ride of anxiety.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Some 12-plus hours later, I’m still replaying Padres center fielder Trent Grisham’s decision to bunt with one out and two on. Manager Bob Melvin said they’d talked about it before he went up to the plate, but ultimately, it was Grisham’s call. “Grass is wet, tough lefty on the mound,” Melvin said. “First baseman’s back, drag it over there and we’ve got a chance, with a righty up behind him, to potentially knock in the go-ahead run, too.” Maybe. But throwing away that out—and then not pinch-hitting for the next hitter, catcher Austin Nola, in the No. 9 slot!—is a tough way to end the season.

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox Thursday. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.