Atlanta's outfield decisions make sense if you're expecting a trade
The Atlanta Braves have a left field problem.
Entering the offseason with obvious needs to address pitching in both the rotation and the bullpen, the Braves chose to create another hole in their roster by declining the $9M club option on starting outfielder Eddie Rosario after watching his platoon-mate Kevin Pillar file for free agency and losing backup Sam Hilliard on a waiver claim.
On a roster and farm system with no clear options to immediately fill the left field vacancy, signs point to either a free agent signing or a position change of Vaughn Grissom.
But both potential paths have flaws.
A position change for Vaughn Grissom has inherent risks - what if he's...not good? What if the learning curve of developing the proper reads, routes, and reactions in the outfield takes too long, and Grissom actively hurts the Braves in 2024? This is a roster with World Series aspirations, and having a player on the roster that's actively hurting your chances of winning isn't something that the team can tolerate for long.
(The counterpoint to this argument is obvious - if there's any one roster that's equipped to carry a young player that's learning on the job, it is Atlanta's.)
But relying on free agency is fraught, as well, owing to multiple factors.
GM Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that the expectation is for payroll to continue to increase, but every dollar committed to a free agent outfielder is one less dollar available to pursue that frontline starter Braves fans want to add to a rotation that's already without Kyle Wright for 2024 (and come 2025, could be without Max Fried...and Michael Soroka, and Yonny Chirinos).
But here's the bigger issue: This free agent position player class just...isn't very good.
We wrote up a list of the top 30+ free agents available, and only seven were outfielders...and that was before Max Kepler's club option was picked up by the Twins and Mark Canha's option was picked up (and then he was subsequently traded) by the Brewers.
The rest of the class is full of flawed players that are going to get more money than perhaps deserved, given the weakness of the class.
Cody Bellinger's one of the top free agent outfielders and, under agent Scott Boras, will be looking for a large commitment in both years and dollars. But despite the statistical resurgence in his platform year (batting .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers) and the legacy of his 2019 MVP award, he's dealing with both poor underlying batted ball data and being just two years removed from being one of the worst offensive hitters in all of baseball, with only a .165 average and 44 OPS+ for the Dodgers in 2021.
Both Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader are defensive-first options with questionable bats that are better suited for center field (where the Braves have the most excellent Michael Harris II, who is NOT getting traded) than left field, where you're more inclined to trade some defensive prowess for a lot more power than those players can provide.
But free agents (and former Braves) Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson might lean too far in the direction of sacrificing power for defense. The duo combined for only 441.2 innings on defense last season for the Marlins and Giants, respectively, and profile more as DH options than full-time outfielders at this point in their careers.
There are quality outfield options on the market - both Lourdes Gurriel and Tommy Pham performed well for the Arizona Diamondbacks down the stretch and, depending on the length of the contract Atlanta wants to give out, could be options for the team. But they'll also be options for every other team, too, and the competition is expected to be fierce for both players. Odds are that Gurriel requires more money per season than Rosario was making and Pham requires a longer commitment in years than Atlanta wants to give to a 36 year-old outfielder.
So that leaves the trade market. There's several outfielders that probably end up getting moved, with Max Kepler's name already being floated in trade talks by the Minnesota Twins and (reportedly) virtually every single member of the Milwaukee Brewers available for the right price. The Tampa Bay Rays need to either trade starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow or move multiple arbitration-eligible players, including outfielder Randy Arozarena.
The Braves farm system is full of young pitching talent, and either a high-level pitching prospect or Vaughn Grissom could be the centerpiece of a trade package. Grissom's trade value might never be higher, but making him the short-side of a platoon in left field with a veteran outfielder (giving him time to grow into the position) is entirely possible as well.
It's entirely possible Eddie Rosario returns, as well, a possibility that can't be discounted.
Either way, Alex Anthopoulos and the front office have their work cut out this offseason - there are no easy decisions here for the Braves to make this offseason.
But this offseason, in some ways, feels like a turning point for the Atlanta Braves: Six straight NL East titles have led to one World Series and one additional NLCS appearance, with the Braves being eliminated in the NLDS the other four postseason trips.
Do the Braves push in the chips in hopes of securing another deep postseason run? Or does Atlanta buy into the "randomness of the postseason" theory and focus on regular season success and getting into the playoffs?
We'll find out soon enough.
Important Braves Today Offseason Stories
2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
Current Atlanta Braves 40-man roster
Key offseason dates for the Atlanta Braves
Projecting the 2024 Atlanta Braves' arbitration salaries
Check out Braves Today on Socials!
Follow Braves Today on Twitter!
Like Braves Today on Facebook!
Check out the homepage for more Atlanta Braves News!
Subscribe to Braves Today on YouTube!
Get Exclusive Braves Merchandise from FOCO