Braves in line for major financial "reset" in 2025, if they want

Atlanta's got a lot of large contracts coming off the books and could reset their luxury tax obligations, should they choose to

The theme of this offseason for the Atlanta Braves has been flexing their financial resources, in a way. 

Not by signing top tier free agents, though. 

No, the Braves have added to their roster through "salary dump" trades, taking on bad contracts to secure long-term, controllable talent. 

In just the last few weeks, Atlanta has added reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox, outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Seattle Mariners, utility infielder David Fletcher from the Los Angeles Angels, and reliever Ray Kerr from the San Diego Padres. 

Those deals saw Atlanta take on Bummer's contract, as well as "bad deals" for pitcher Marco Gonzales & first baseman Evan White (Mariners), catcher Max Stassi (Angels), and designated hitter Matt Carpenter (Padres) to do it. 

The bright side of these moves is Atlanta secured fifteen years of contractual control of their trade targets, highlighted by five years of Jarred Kelenic and six of Ray Kerr. 

The downside is the 2024 cost for those bad contracts - and it's only partial costs, as Atlanta was able to move some of those salary obligations to other teams - still comes out to over $15M plus Fletcher's combined $14M in two year salary obligations plus 2026 buyout. 

These moves, combined with Atlanta's existing long-term contracts for every other position on the diamond, means that the Braves payroll is one of the highest in MLB, with (per Spotrac) their 2024 cash payroll being a Top 3 figure in all of baseball at $208M and their tax payroll being the highest in the sport, at $242M. It's the second year Atlanta will be in the luxury tax, meaning their tax on overages of the $237M threshold come out to 30% rather than last year's 20%. 

But in 2025, that could go down. 

How Atlanta can "reset" their finances in 2025

Despite the numerous long-term contracts on the books for Atlanta, there's several players that will all see their contracts expire after the 2024 season. 

And if none of them come back, the financial savings could be significant:

Player	2024 Salary	2025 status
SP Max Fried	$14.4M (arb projection)	UFA
SP Charlie Morton	$20M	UFA (probable retirement)
RP AJ Minter	$6.5M (arb projection)	UFA
DH Marcell Ozuna	$16M	Club option ($16M)
RP Aaron Bummer	$5.5M	Club option ($7.25M)
C Travis d'Arnaud	$8M	Club option ($8M)
RP Tyler Matzek	$1.9M	Club option ($5.5M)

After the 2024 season, those seven players come out to over $72M in contracts that will expire, allowing Atlanta to reduce their cash payroll to around $190M and their CBT payroll to just under $172M. Both those figures, if you're wondering, still project as of now to be tops in baseball.

UPDATE: Atlanta's tax figure would be third in baseball for 2025, per Spotrac, with the Los Angeles Dodgers ($172M) and Philadelphia Phillies ($186M) above them. We regret the error. 

The truth about Atlanta's willingness to spend this offseason

Those figures don't count Atlanta's arbitration estimates, but the Braves have also shed many of their arbitration eligible contracts, with only Jarred Kelenic (and maybe Ian Anderson?) potentially in line to receive substantial money as a first year arbitration eligible in 2025, pending 2024 season performance.

Now, obviously, re-signings of several of those expiring contracts (or exercising club options) is possible, but that's a question for next offseason. If Atlanta were to pick up all of those club options, it would be just over $36.7M in salary commitments for 2025. 

But will Atlanta reset their tax obligations next season?

It doesn't feel likely. 

Alex Anthopoulos told us at the Winter Meetings that the front office is concerned with the cash payroll versus the tax payroll - they track the tax payroll, obviously, to know how much they'll be paying in penalties, but the focus is the cash amount.

Here's the relevant quote:  

"I focus on the cash amount, so what the actual cash is out the door. What the tax is going to look like, so the CBT number for us - other than than being over, we don't pay attention to it. We do pay attention to what that dollar value in taxes is, because that'll have to be paid, and what the salaries are, because they'll need to be paid."  

I don't think it'll happen simply because Anthopoulos said he doesn't really care about it. And if anything, this front office has been remarkably transparent after the fact with explaining the moves they've made and why. 

Another reason is the state of the rotation in 2025 - with Max Fried reaching free agency and Charlie Morton potentially retiring after his age 40 season, two of your three projected postseason starters as of now could walk out the door, either to a new team (Fried) or home to Florida (Morton). 

Atlanta will have the first opportunity to re-sign Fried, obviously, but if prior history with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson holds, Anthopoulos will hold firm on a contract term and total value that he's comfortable with and Fried could walk if another team massively exceeds that figure. 

This is what happened with Swanson - the Cubs offered seven years and $177M, where Atlanta's rumored final offer was six years and $100M. Can't fault the guy for taking 77% more money and an extra year. (Let's not talk about Freeman.)

But if Atlanta does choose to drop below the tax for a single season, it's because of the significant escalation between years two and three of exceeding the tax. A first time payor pays a 20% overage, while a 2nd consecutive year sees that rate increase to 30%. But a third year? 50%. 

Dropping below the CBT threshold (which increases from three to four million dollars each season - almost enough to not matter, honestly) for just one season resets the penalties back to the initial 20% level the next time you exceed it. 

(And complicating issues is the uncertainty with the Bally Sports/RSN bankruptcy. Reports are that 2024 is the last season that Diamond Sports will carry MLB broadcasts, so that revenue source will be changing for 2025 and we don't, as of now, have any idea what that'll look like, in either format or amount. 

But that's a different article.)

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