Braves Today Mailbag: The Los Angeles Dodgers, postseason rotations, and a possible 40/40 season
Writing a mailbag is always an ego-centric exercise, but I'm grateful for the questions. Let's get right into it.
What chance do the Braves have of holding off the Dodgers for best record in the National League and home-field advantage in the postseason? -Mary, Newnan GA
Thanks, Mary, for the question.
The Dodgers have absolutely overcome that uncharacteristic slow start to become The Dodgers and are now running away with the NL West - their 12-game divisional lead is only a game and a half behind Atlanta's for largest in baseball, and their actual record (78-48) is third in all of MLB and just four games behind Atlanta for best in the National League. The big determinant on who wins home field advantage, to me, is going to be that series in LA next weekend - Atlanta plays four against the Dodgers from August 30th-September 3rd. Whoever wins the series probably wins the #1 seed, and gets the home-field advantage if this teams meet in the playoffs.
How do the Braves match up with the Dodgers in a best of five series? -Josh, Valdosta GA
Thanks Josh! Glad to see my hometown represented in the mailbag.
Hate to keep deferring to that next series, but the previous matchup between these two teams didn't really go Atlanta's way. Back in late May, the Braves dropped two out of three at home to the Dodgers, with Strider and Morton both taking losses before Atlanta walked it off in the 9th to take three game and avoid a sweep. Freddie Freeman and JD Martinez absolutely wore out Charlie Morton and the relievers in game one, combining for 7 hits (3 homers and a double), 5 runs, and 5 RBIs in their 10 plate appearances of an 8-6 win. Game two saw Spencer Strider get into an early 4-0 hole, while Atlanta's offense muster only five total hits and one run off of rookie Bobby Miller and a parade of relievers.
Zooming out, I think both offenses are very potent, with Atlanta having a slight edge in the depth of the lineup, the power department, and having a bigger base-stealing threat in Ronald Acuña Jr. Los Angeles has the better ability to engineer a matchup against a specific pitcher, with the ability to stack six lefties in the lineup and/or bring in a pinch-hitter of the opposite handedness for a particular reliever.
Ultimately, in a postseason series, I think it'd come down to which individual pitchers (both starters and relievers) could shut down the opposing offenses and who had home field advantage. I definitely don't think it'd be a sweep either way, but if a time traveler told me that the NLCS was a 4-3 victory by whichever team that had home field advantage, I wouldn't be shocked.
What will the Braves starting rotation look like in the postseason? -Devin, Marietta GA
Thanks for the question, Devin, and for being part of the East Cobb Mob.
From where things sit right now, it's Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and then a giant question mark. If last night's Kyle Wright rehab start is a sign that he's fully healthy and he has time to return to form, then he might be the 4th starter in a longer series. Michael Soroka (who isn't pitching in the bigs now because of service time) or Jared Shuster are another option to take the ball. But remember, Atlanta could just skip a starter and use a bullpen game.
Atlanta used bullpen games in game four of the 2021 NLCS and one in the World Series, so there's options. The NLCS victory was with Jesse Chavez opening, and then giving way to bulk man Drew Smyly, who threw 3.1 innings and got the victory.
So, I'll say 40% odds it is Kyle Wright, 30% odds it is Michael Soroka, 20% odds it is a pitcher we've not listed, and 10% odds it's a bullpen game.
Is Ronald Acuña Jr going to get 40/40 this year? -Kyle, Lilburn, GA
I don't think so. At this pace, he'd finish the regular season with 36 home runs ands 75 stolen bases. In his most prolific home-run season, the 2019 year where he finished with 41 HRs, he averaged one bomb every 17.5 plate appearances. This season, he's down to 20.8 plate appearances per home run. To get back on pace, assuming he finishes this season with the exact same number of plate appearances he had in 2019 (715), he'd need to lower that pace down to a homer every 11.08 PAs, which feels...unlikely.
Not saying Ronald can't pop off for four in a three game set or anything, and that would definitely go a long way towards making up some ground, but he'll have to settle for the first 30-70 season, probably, or maybe 35-70 season.
This was fun. Let us know in the comments what questions you have, and we'll do a Part Two!
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