What the addition of Chris Sale means for the 2024 Atlanta Braves

Adding another talented lefty to the rotation allows Atlanta to better match up with the Dodgers and Phillies

The Atlanta Braves have finally gone out and addressed their desire for a postseason-caliber starting pitcher, getting Chris Sale and cash from the Boston Red Sox for Vaughn Grissom. 

Sale, 34, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, finishing in the top ten of Cy Young voting seven different times in his career. He's one of two active pitchers, along with Clayton Kershaw, to have at least 2,000 career strikeouts and a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) under 3.00. 

But that health is the big caveat - Sale has pitched under 150 innings combined since 2019, as a 2020 Tommy John surgery, a rib injury, and a broken finger have all sidelined him. 102.2 of those were last season, however, as he made 20 starts for the Red Sox, with a 6-5 record and 4.30 ERA. 

In Atlanta, Sale joins a rotation that doesn't need him to carry it, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton all in front of him in the rotation. Getting Sale to the postseason healthy will be the biggest priority for Atlanta, who saw sixteen different pitchers make starts as they dealt with rotation injuries to Max Fried and Kyle Wright, amongst others. 

Welcome to Atlanta, Chris! pic.twitter.com/w72r66CuXe

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) December 30, 2023

Adding Sale lengthens the rotation

Sale's addition for 2024 obviously deepens the rotation, pushing Bryce Elder to the #5 spot. Elder, who was a 2023 All-Star on the strength of his 7-2 record and 2.97 ERA, struggled to the tune of a 5.11 ERA in the back half of the season as he recorded a career high 174.2 innings.  

As easy as it would be to say that the "losers" of this deal are some of the younger pitchers vying for the #5 rotation spot, like top prospects Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, they're incredibly likely to get meaningful major league run in 2024 as Atlanta attempts to keep their frontline starters healthy for the postseason. 

Adding Sale makes the rotation more formidable against the Dodgers

Sale, a left-hander, joins Max Fried as lefty rotation options to square off against the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA didn't perform markedly worse against lefties than righties last season, with an OPS difference of less than 20 points, but many of their short-side platoon players like Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas, and Manuel Margot are less dynamic than their lineup regulars of Gavin Lux, Jason Heyward, and Miguel Vargas. 

It's obvious that Atlanta's biggest takeaways from the lack of offense in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies was the need for both multiple left-handed swing-and-miss options and premium velocity, and Sale can provide both. Sale's 2023 saw him put up 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings, just 0.1 off of his career 11.1 K/9 mark. And his fastball, while coming in at "only" 93.9 mph, was still both a positive pitch on both run value (+4) and swing and miss, collecting whiffs 23.4% of the time. 

You didn't have to move pitching prospects

All of the proposed pitching trades this offseason - for Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox, Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays (now with the Los Angeles Dodgers), Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers - all involved trading from Atlanta's pitching depth. Specifically, they all were expected to take at least one, and sometimes both, of the duo of AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep.   

Instead, the Braves were able to get a potential playoff starter while retaining both of those pitchers, who are expected to get starts in Atlanta next season.   

Financially, it's a great deal

Sale's owed $27.5M in 2024, the final year of his deal, which would be the highest salary on the team next season. But there's two caveats here that make this deal much cheaper for Atlanta. 

The first is deferred money. $10M of Sale's salary for 2024 is deferred 15 years, being paid in 2039. As we learned from the Shohei Ohtani contract, that money isn't required to be funded by the Braves until July 1st of 2026. As we've discussed previously, Atlanta potentially has a lot of money coming off the books in 2025, meaning from a cash perspective, there's flexibility on when Sale's deferred money is paid. 

Braves in line for major financial "reset" in 2025, if they want

Adding to that flexibility is a significant paydown of Sale's contract by the Red Sox. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Braves are receiving $17M from Boston in the deal. Atlanta could have a total cash expenditure in 2024 for Sale of only $500k, if they chose, waiting to fund the deferred money until after multiple contracts come off the book after this season. 

Sale might help you in 2025, too

Owing to Sale's health issues in recent seasons, he has a vesting club option for 2025 that's based on two things: Cy Young finish and health. 

If Sale finishes the 2024 season inside the top ten in the NL Cy Young voting and is not on the injured list at the end of the season, his $20M club option vests. Depending on the finish, his yearly salary could increase anywhere from $500,000 (6th-10th place) all the way up to $2.5M (if he wins the Cy Young), but it's still easy for Atlanta to reallocate the $20M being paid to Charlie Morton over to one more year of Sale if they choose to, unless the option vests and the decision is made automatically for the Braves. 

(Also: $22.5M for one year of a Cy Young winner, if Sale wins it in 2024, is a STEAL.)

So what's the final verdict? 

Given Vaughn Grissom's inability to break into the starting lineup and Atlanta's stated need for a rotation option, it feels like a win. Atlanta took on yet another bad contract, exchanging a young player to do so, and it's one that (if healthy) can go a long way towards helping Atlanta hopefully make a deep postseason run. 

It's a win, as of now. If Sale misses significant time in 2024, it might not be, but from here, right now, it's a win. 

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