Diamondbacks Spring Competition: The Final Rotation Spot

Who are the main candidates for the final starting rotation spot on Opening Day?

Yesterday we took a look at the Diamondbacks Bullpen Spring Competition. Another big story line to follow this upcoming spring will be how the final rotation spot shakes out. The Diamondbacks have plenty of potential candidates to consider, including those with past big league experience, in this competition.

The team entered the off-season with three of their five Opening Day rotation spots accounted for with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Madison Bumgarner set to take them. While it initially appeared that the team was content to use their farm system to fill out those last two rotation spots, the team re-signed Zach Davies to a one-year deal.

General manager Mike Hazen justified the signing, citing how the starting rotation collapsed in 2021 due to an onslaught of injuries.

"Before if we didn’t have zach you are penciling in two of those young guys to fill out the 4th and 5th spot of the rotation and if they don’t pitch well we realistically have one or two other guys that are ready. I’m hoping a couple of those Amarillo pitchers are going to be pushing into AAA and be ready................Having Zach just ratchets up the competition amongst all the pitchers" 

This gives them cover in case a prospect isn't necessarily ready to take a rotation spot for the duration of the season or gets injured. 

The Main Candidates

Jack Sommers

The four prospects who will competing for this final rotation spot include Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, and Brandon Pfaadt. Jameson, Henry, and Nelson have previous big league experience, with a combined 16 starts for the trio. Pfaadt hasn't made his MLB debut, but is coming off a very strong season in which he pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA in 10 starts with Triple-A Reno and earned the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year. All four pitchers have a legitimate claim for the rotation spot, whether it's the stuff to develop into a frontline starter, command, or previous experience coming into play.

The candidate with the best combination of experience, future upside, and present-day value is Drey Jameson. Despite his generously listed 6'0" 165 stature, the 25-year-old prospect presents the best combination of present-day value, future upside, and the intangibles to be a big league starter in the long term. Improving his fastball command and location will be the key for him to reach his ceiling, as sometimes he left them in too many hittable locations and got away with it. His curveball is underutilized, but can serve as an effective fourth pitch. 

After Jameson, the prospect with the next highest chance of cracking the rotation is Nelson. Nelson looked very good in his three big league starts, showcasing a very unhittable fastball that sits 95-98 that plays up due to good extension and a vertical movement profile. He has the chance to develop a legitimate four-pitch mix, especially if he implements the changes that pitching coach Brent Strom suggested. The main issue may be his durability in starts, as his stuff tends to waver about 70 pitches into the start. That may limit  his value to that of  a "Five and Dive" starter, but we're talking about the #5 starter so it's not a disqualifier. 

Tommy Henry brings the most experience of the group and is the only left-hander in the competition. He doesn't feature the best stuff, with his fastball in the low 90s and average secondary pitches. The team may consider using Henry in long relief in order to get some value from his this year.  But the organization is trying to learn from the mistakes they made in 2019 with Jon Duplantier, when they yanked him back and forth between starting in Reno and relieving in MLB five different times during the season. So if Nelson doesn't make the rotation spot, it's more likely that he's stashed in Reno and one of the first arms called up.

The last candidate is Pfaadt, is ranked as the No. 2 Prospect on our top 10 Prospects list.  However his sample size in Reno is only 10 starts, compared to the other three prospects who got 26, 26, and 21 appearances with the D-backs top minor league affiliate. Pfaadt has a solid repertoire and the best command of all the pitching prospects in the organization, so he may force his way into the big leagues sooner rather than later. The Prospect Promotion Incentive, and the potential rewards, may factor into the decision in a close race.  

Checking in with the wisdom of the crowd nearly half the respondents felt that the D-backs are most likely to choose Jameson for the opening day roster

#Diamondbacks are having spring competition for 5th starter spot. Barring injury, who do you think WILL start season as 5th starter behind Z. Gallen, M. Kelly, M. Bumgarner and Z. Davies

(Note: I'm asking WILL not should)

Listed Alphabetically

— Jack Sommers (@shoewizard59) February 5, 2023

The Long Shots

Arizona also invited Blake Walston, Slade Cecconi, and Bryce Jarvis to camp this year. All three are candidates for September promotions, although none of them have pitched for Reno yet. These pitchers don't offer as much upside as the top group but could be candidates for the rotation next season.

Cecconi was very consistent in 2022 and was able to build his innings count to 130. Despite a rough 2021 in which the former supplemental first rounder struggled with injuries and inconsistent velocity, he was able to brave through Amarillo, (the worst pitching environment in all of MiLB) and make the adjustments necessary to continue as a starter. He cut down his walk rate by 3% without heavily impacting his strikeout rate and had some very encouraging road splits.

Walston also suffered from the tough environment, but pieced together a strong second half run. With the elevation neutralizing his best pitch, the 21-year-old starter was able to make significant improvements with the slider. The pitch turned into a key strikeout weapon that could be better than his curveball and changeup, especially when located to the back foot of right-handed hitters. He has the highest ceiling of this group, as a potential middle of the rotation arm and could be the first call-up.

Jarvis' 2023 placement will be interesting after a tough year in one of the worst pitching environments in the minor leagues. A strong spring could have him in Reno, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him back in Amarillo either. His invitation to camp could be very much a basis of seeing how he'd perform outside of those terrible pitching environments in the Texas League South. It's a make or break year for the former first rounder, although the hope is Jarvis made the necessary improvements even if it's not reflected on the scoreboard.