Could J.D. Martinez Be Wrong Choice for the Diamondbacks?

A dive into the projections of the top free agent DH options turns up some surprising and concerning numbers

Throughout the 2023-2024 offseason the Diamondbacks have been linked to J.D. Martinez as a potential free agent target. The team has made clear their desire to add an impact bat to the middle of the order and the former D-back has been among the most frequently mentioned names.  Recently, local radio host John Gambadoro reported that the D-backs had in fact reached out to Martinez' representation expressing interest. 

An objective analysis of the projection data available suggests Martinez may not be the best choice for the team however. Each year Fangraphs publishes composite projections created from  ZiPS and Steamer projections.  The table below is the composite projection of those two systems.  The home run and WAR totals shown are pro rated to 500 plate appearances for each batter.  Below the table are the pros and cons for each player listed, in order of their OPS ranking. (Accordingly, Martinez is therefore reviewed last)

Jack Sommers

Jorge Soler, RHB,  DH-RF

Pros: Jorge Soler is coming off a 36 homer season and projects to have the highest slugging and OPS in the group. He's reduced his strikeout rate and takes his walks. The D-backs were rumored earlier in the offseason to have been interested in Soler

Cons: While Soler theoretically provides position flexibility in right field, he is rated as a very poor, break glass in case of emergency only outfielder.  He is seeking a three year deal and has a projected average annual salary of 16 million. That's  a difficult ask for a player with a bit of an injury history and recent down performances in both 2021 and 2022. It's also likely beyond the D-backs current payroll capability. 

Rhys Hoskins, RHB, 1B

Pros:  Rhys Hoskins is an established power hitter with two 30 homer seasons under his belt, and has averaged 25 homers  and a .846 OPS per year since entering the league. 

Cons: Hoskins is coming off a torn ACL that caused him to miss the entire 2023 season. He also is a first baseman, and Christian Walker is under contract for one more season.  If Hoskins were willing to sign as a DH with a team option for 2025 should they want to bring him back to play first base if Walker leaves it could work, but Hoskins is likely looking for more of a commitment than that. 

Joc Pederson, LHB, DH-Corner OF

Pros:  Joc Pederson is tied with Hoskins for the second best OPS and WAR projection on this list. He would be an upgrade over Pavin Smith as a left handed DH getting two thirds of the starts with occasional outfield play.  He projects to make the lowest salary on this list, and could provide the most bang for the buck. Originally it was thought the D-backs were strictly looking for a right-hand batter, but Mike Hazen said that handedness would not preclude him from signing the best player available.

Cons: Pederson cannot hit left-handed pitching, and therefore is unlikely to actually bat 500 times and achieve 20+ homers. His career year of 2022,  with an .874 OPS, 146 OPS+ in the pitcher friendly park in San Francisco  may be inflating his projection somewhat. His career OPS is .800 with a 116 OPS+ and in 2023 he had a .764 OPS, 111 OPS+.  His defense has declined a great deal and can only be used sparingly in the outfield. 

Justin Turner RHB, DH, 1B-3B-2B

Pros: Justin Turner is projected to have the highest batting average and OBP and the lowest strikeout rate in  this group. He would provide balance to a lineup that may be more strikeout prone with the addition of Eugenio Suárez.  While he is no longer considered a plus defender, Turner can play first and third base adequately when called upon, and even post up at second base in a pinch.  Gambadoro also confirmed that the D-backs had reached out to Turner this off season. 

Cons: Tuner is 39 years old and players this age are usually teetering right on the cliff's edge.  While he hit .276 with 23 homers and an .800 OPS playing home games in hitter friendly Fenway Park last year, that was good for just a 114 park-adjusted OPS+.  His career average is 125, and he had a 124 OPS+ from 2019-2022.  Another 10 point drop in OPS+ as he ages would put him barely above league average. 

J.D. Martinez RHB, DH

Pros: Martinez is coming off a 33 homer season for the Dodgers with an .894 OPS, 133 OPS+, and posted very strong batted ball metrics.  When he made contact his Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Rate and Barrel rate were all in the 98th percentile. 

Cons: The oft-injured Martinez missed time with back and groin injuries, playing in just 113 games in 2023. He had been showing signs of decline prior to his bounce back year in 2023, posting just a 116 OPS+ from 2020-2022. Most concerning of all, his strikeout rate ballooned all the way to 31.1% last year, as he sold out for power. His projected strikeout rate is the worst on this list above and that, coupled with the aging curves used in these projections, is the primary driver of his projected decrease in OPS and overall output in  2024.  Finally, he offers no position flexibility at all, and is relegated to 100% DH duties.  Despite all this, Martinez is projected to receive $16 million in average salary and is reportedly seeking a multi-year deal. 

Summary:

With spring training less than four weeks away, The D-backs are obviously patiently waiting for prices to come down. The current projected payroll is at least $137 million, and perhaps as high as $143 million. How much higher they can go is unknown, but the desire to upgrade at the DH spot comes with reasonably well-estimated costs. Barring a creative deferral of some sort, filling this position is going to drive the payroll up to or even above $150 million.

The two players on the list that can likely be gotten on a one year contract at a reasonable cost are Turner and Pederson. Each has their question marks, but at least would not tie up funds beyond 2024 and seemingly would provide the best value for the dollars spent.  Meanwhile if these projections turn out to be anywhere near accurate, Martinez may be the biggest bust risk on this list.

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