Top Prospects Ranking Services Love the Diamondbacks

There is consensus among evaluators that the D-backs have a strong crop of prospects. What does it mean?

It's prospect season!  As reported by Michael McDermott, last night MLB Pipeline released their top 100 prospects list, and it contained four Diamondbacks. A week earlier Baseball America  released their list and it had five D-backs on it. 

These are the two premier prospect ranking sites in the industry. Here is how the the two sites compare in their ranks of Diamondbacks prospects, for both Top 100 and within their respective positions.

CONSENSUS

Diamondbacks Rankings on Top 100 Lists

It's important to note not just the overall ranking, but also the rank within their respective positions, which are virtually identical.

MEANING AND HISTORY

This is not the first time that the Diamondbacks have had a slew of highly rated prospects. Back in 2006 the D-backs had six highly rated prospects arriving more or less at the same time. Here are those rankings at the time and a summary of their MLB careers

There are no guarantees with prospects, however the above players all became major leaguers and most of them had good careers.  They tallied 10 All Star selections among them, including seven from Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez combined. All but one recorded over 10 WAR and four of them had over 15 career WAR. Obviously not all of that production came with the D-backs and a couple of them were traded before they could achieve impact for the club. But when you have a portfolio of this many highly rated prospects concentrated in the top 30 the odds are good you will major league caliber players and maybe even a star or two. 

PLAYER REVIEWS

Corbin Carroll:  Ranked 2nd at both BA/MLB, 1st among OF

We've written quite a bit about Carroll here at Inside the Diamondbacks. For a comprehensive review of his season see this article.  Carroll is the consensus top rated outfield prospect in baseball. He played in the majors last year getting 105 at bats, posting a .830 OPS and the fastest average sprint speed in MLB, (30.7 ft. per/sec). His rookie eligibility is still intact and if he makes the opening day roster and finishes in the top three of the rookie of the year voting the Diamondbacks will receive a high compensation draft pick in the 2024 draft.  ETA: Opening Day 2023

Gabriel Moreno, Ranked 12th by BA, 4th among catchers

Acquired in a trade from the Toronto Blue Jays,  which we evaluated here, Moreno is technically not rookie eligible in 2023 due to having spent 61 days on the active roster last year.  Baseball America ranked him anyway, as he only had 79 at bats, but MLB  Pipeline followed the eligibility rules in determining their list. 

Regardless, Moreno is an excellent young prospect and fills a gaping hole in the organizations catching depth chart. Last year Pipeline ranked him 7th overall and 2nd best among catchers.  MLB prospect writer Jim Callis said of Moreno:

If Gabriel Moreno hadn't been ineligible for our Top 100 because he exceeded the rookie service-time limits, he would have ranked in the top 10-15 prospects overall. He stands out with some of the best hitting ability in the minors, though there's some question as to exactly how much power he'll have. He shows athleticism and arm strength behind the plate and the ability to play other positions as well. 

Speaking last September Jonathan Mayo, also from MLB Pipeline said Moreno has good bat control and very good catch and throw skills. The only long term question is whether the power will develop, as that has been down the last year perhaps due to an injury suffered in 2022.  ETA: Opening Day 2023

Jordan Lawlar, Ranked 13th by BA, 11th by MLB

Lawlar is the 4th highest rated shortstop by both websites. He had an excellent 2022 season after recovering from shoulder surgery. Advancing from Low-A to High-A to Double-AA, Lawlar's defense improved as the season went on as well. 

Unfortunately Lawlar suffered another shoulder injury, this time a broken scapula after getting hit by a pitch in the Arizona Fall League. He is expected to be fully recovered and ready to start the season on time however.  ETA: September 2023

Druw Jones, Ranked 24th by BA, 15th by MLB

Jones was the Diamondbacks first pick in the 2022 draft, and the second pick overall.  While there is a bit of a gap between BA and MLB, that is more a function of how they handled positions differently. He is ranked as the 5th best outfielder by BA and 4th best by MLB, so they both see the five tool prospect more or less equally.

Jones suffered a shoulder injury in batting practice very shortly after signing with the club and did not appear in any games. This probably kept his ranking down a couple of spots. He is ranked as the 4th best Dbacks prospect by Michael McDermott. Expected to make a full recovery, he should be able to move up these rankings with good health and performance in 2023.  ETA: September 2025

Brandon Pfaadt, Ranked 27th by BA, 59th by MLB

This is the only player on the list where there is somewhat of a divergence between the two websites. However it's notable that Pfaadt is ranked 8th among Right-hand pitchers by BA and 12th by MLB, who have a high concentration of RHP near the top of their list. 

The fact that he's ranked this high at all is an incredible achievement. Pfaadt was the D-backs minor league pitcher of the year in 2022 and not only led all minor leagues with 218 strikeouts but had the most of any minor league pitcher since 2001.  He will be a non roster invitee and there is a good chance he could earn a spot on the opening day roster. If not, a mid season call up at the latest should be in the cards barring any unforeseen mishaps or injury. 

THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT

The Diamondbacks already graduated a wave of prospects last year. Outfielders Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas both had varying degrees of success in 2022 (McCarthy on offense, Thomas on defense). Both are expected to play signifcant roles for the team in 2023.  Rookie starters Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson impressed after promotion, and Tommy Henry showed flashes.  

Thanks to an even stronger class coming in behind those players this year and over the next several years the team is well positioned with a core of young, controllable players. At some point ownership will need to augment that with higher spending on a couple of established impact players. But that's a story for another day.