Key Matchups: Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Cincinnati is hoping to snap a two-game losing streak.

The Bengals are looking to avoid a three-game losing streak by winning in Denver on Sunday to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Joe Burrow said this week every game is a must-win moving forward if they want to make the playoffs. They entered December as the fifth seed, just one game behind the Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Two weeks later, they are still one game behind Baltimore in the division, but they've dropped to the nine seed.

Cincinnati’s loss to the 49ers last week dropped their playoff chances to 35%. A win this week could boost their chances back up to 53%. A third consecutive loss would be crushing, as their postseason chances would fall to 18%.

The Bengals and Broncos are two of the five AFC teams entering Week 15 with a 7-6 record.

Denver hasn’t been a successful place for Cincinnati to visit. The Bengals are 3-13 all-time in the Mile High City.

If the Bengals want to change their luck in Denver and stay relevant in the playoff race, their greatest matchup this week is themselves. They need to overcome the mental hurdles of turnovers, play calling, and missed opportunities that have haunted them in their losses this season. Let’s take a look at the other key matchups that could decide Sunday's game. 

Joe Burrow vs. Broncos Defense

Burrow did not practice Wednesday, but was a full participant the rest of the week. His appearance on the injury report will likely be a recurring theme for the remainder of the season to limit the use of his injured pinky to have him ready for game days.

The quarterback faces a different challenge against the Broncos. Burrow has gone up against a number of the NFL’s best pass rushers over the course of this season (do not count out Bradley Chubb this week), but believes the Broncos’ secondary is one of the best the Bengals will face this season.

“A lot of weeks you point at this guy ‘hey we can attack this guy,'” Burrow said. “They [Broncos] don’t have any of those guys on defense. Top to bottom, they’re probably the deepest that we’ve played.”

Denver’s secondary is led by safety Justin Simmons. He has five interceptions and 12 passes defended. He is the highest graded (90.4) safety in the NFL since Week 8 according to Pro Football Focus.

Patrick Surtain II, Ronald Darby, and Kyle Fuller round out the secondary with slot corner Bryce Callahan set to return from injured reserve.

Defenses have shown different looks each week, but have favored zone in an attempt to limit Burrow and the offensive playmakers. This week will likely be different as Denver has the personnel to play man-to-man coverage.

Burrow hasn’t seen consistent man coverage in a game since their matchup against the Browns at Paul Brown Stadium. Prior to the ugly Week 9 loss, the 25-year old was graded as one of the top passers against man coverage leading defenses to change their game plans against this offense.

Burrow is confident in the team’s ability to adapt to man or zone heading into Sunday. He posted the second highest quarterback grade (90.0) this season according to Pro Football Focus. He's only second to Tom Brady (91.5). 

He has been poised and come through in clutch situations. Burrow leads the NFL with 21 big time throws over the last 10 weeks. 

Advantage: Bengals

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Bengals Offensive Line vs. Broncos Defense

Cincinnati’s offensive line took a big hit this week with Riley Reiff landing on injured reserve with an ankle injury. 

Isaiah Prince was in line to take Reiff’s place, but he's dealing with an illness and will serve as a backup if he does play. Fred Johnson will start at right tackle as the offensive line continues to shift personnel throughout the season. ​

Reiff’s injury couldn’t come at a worse time with the recent offensive line struggles. The Bengals surrendered 26 pressures and five sacks against the 49ers. Cincinnati is 2-11-1 when Burrow gets sacked three or more times. They're 1-7-1 when he gets sacked five or more times. 

Although Chubb has only played in four games this season due to an ankle injury, he's still a player to keep an eye on this week. In his 38 game career, the outside linebacker has 130 tackles, 20.5 sacks, 47 quarterback hits, and 29 tackles for loss.

Dre’Mont Jones isn't expected to play. Not having him would be a big loss for the Broncos. He's recorded 27 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and one forced fumble in 13 games this season.

Even if Jones is unable to go, the Bengals are even more shorthanded along the offensive line.

Advantage: Broncos

Bengals Skill Players vs. Broncos Defense

Joe Mixon against the Denver rush defense is the matchup to watch here. The Bengals are 7-1 when Mixon averages four or more yards per carry. They’re 0-5 when he averages less than four yards. An efficient ground game is the foundation to success for this offense.

The Broncos run defense has improved as the season has unfolded. They’re currently a top-10 unit, giving up 106.1 yards per game (tenth fewest) and just seven touchdowns on the ground (second fewest).

Kenny Young has been a key contributor in their run stopping efforts, but he's recovering from a concussion and isn't expected to play. 

Denver’s secondary vs. Cincinnati’s receiving corps is going to be a show. As Burrow said, this is the deepest group of defensive backs the Bengals have faced this season. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will all have their own challenges to create separation.

The particular matchup of the secondary will be Chase vs. Surtain. Surtain won’t shadow Chase the entire game, but it’s bound to be a battle when they line up against each other. Chase has been a man coverage killer, whereas Surtain has been a lockdown defender in man-to-man.

Advantage: Broncos

Teddy Bridgewater vs. Bengals Defense

Teddy Bridgewater is not the Broncos long term answer at quarterback, but he’s been serviceable at the position this season.

He's thrown for 2,954 yards, 18 touchdowns, seven interceptions and is completing 67.6% of his passes. A majority of Bridgewater’s passes have been under 20 yards. He has struggled to find the big play, even with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant at his disposal.

This bodes well for a defense that has allowed the third-most plays of 20+ passing yards (52). Cincinnati is giving up 256.8 passing yards per game.

The Bengals will be without Chidobe Awuzie after he was placed on the COVID-19 reserve list Thursday. Awuzie has allowed just 5.7 yards per target and 56.6% passes completed.

Trae Waynes is expected to play for the first time since injuring his hamstring in Week 5. The coaching staff has complete confidence in Waynes after taking an extra week of practice once he was designated to return.

"We feel better about him playing with just one more week of normal football activities," Taylor said on Friday. "He was wanting to play last week and felt like he could do it, we just had to make sure we were doing the right thing by him. So this week we feel better about it."

Bridgewater has been pressured on 29.5% of his dropbacks this season. Trey Hendrickson will play after leaving last week’s game with a back injury. He was able to record another sack before his exit to continue his sack streak to nine straight games.

D.J. Reader, Larry Ogunjobi, and BJ Hill kept the pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo throughout the course of the game, all recording one sack. However, Hendrickson was missed on the outside. 

Advantage: Bengals

Broncos Offensive Line vs. Bengals Defense

Denver’s offensive line is coming off an impressive showing against Detroit. They allowed just two total pressures all game. But the Lions rank near the bottom of the NFL in pass rush. 

Denver is winning in trenches 70% of the time in the run game and 60% is pass protection, which puts them near the middle of the league in both categories.

Just over half of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams’ 1,459 combined yards on the ground have come after contact. They have also allowed a league-worst 30.7% of pressures per quarterback drop-back. 

Drew Lock played in two games for the Broncos, which is why this number doesn’t match Bridgewater’s pressure rate above.

Reader hasn’t gotten the recognition like Hendrickson, but Lou Anarumo called him the “cornerstone” of the defense. His ability to bully offensive linemen and collapse a pocket allows opportunities for the other linemen like Hendrickson and Hubbard to get in the backfield to get to the quarterback or ball carrier.

Quietly, Reader is PFF’s seventh highest rated defensive linemen through Week 14 (80.7). With a healthy defensive line, this group should be productive against this offensive line.

Advantage: Bengals

Broncos Skill Players vs. Bengals Defense

Gordon and Williams against the Bengals run defense is the matchup to watch. Cincinnati’s run defense remains a top-five group, despite the back-to-back losses. Gordon and Williams are the drivers of the Broncos' offense.

They split carries between each other almost evenly. Gordon has seven rushing touchdowns and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, while Williams has three touchdowns on the ground with 4.8 yards a carry.

Gordon has been a constant for the Broncos, while Williams has provided a spark. Williams has forced 53 missed tackles in just 155 attempts. Jonathan Taylor is second with 52 missed tackles in 241 rushes. 

Missed tackles have been a problem in each of the Bengals losses. The defense will need to clean those errors up to keep Williams and the other offensive weapons in check.

Once the run game has been established, Denver has utilized a play-action to catch defenses off-guard. Tight end Noah Fant is the beneficiary of many of these play calls using his size against linebackers as a mismatch.

This is where Logan Wilson is missed. George Kittle had 13 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown last week. Denver could look to exploit this mismatch with Fant.

Production from the Broncos’ wide receivers has been lacking this season. Despite the receiver troubles, Jeudy and Sutton are dynamic and can open up a game at any moment if Bridgewater is able to get them the ball.

Advantage: Broncos (Wilson is too big of a loss in both the run and pass games)

Evan McPherson vs. Brandon McManus

Evan McPherson hit the decade mark last week, booting his 100th point of the season.

The rookie has made 84% of his field goal attempts. His struggles have come most in the 40-49 yard attempt range (5-for-8). However, McPherson has come up clutch beyond 50 yards (7-for-8). 

Cincinnati has their franchise kicker as he develops at the pro level.

McManus is fresh off being named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week. He hit a 52-yard field goal and was 5-for-5 on PAT attempts against the Lions.

The kicker has accounted for 87 points this season. McManus is 20-for-23 on field goal attempts and 27-for-28 extra points. He has the edge in this matchup since he's used to Denver’s altitude.

Advantage: Broncos

For more on this matchup, watch the video below. 

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