'The Barkley Bet': Sources Go Inside Eagles' Saquon 'Super Steal'; Will It Work?

NFL sources described the Philadelphia Eagles' thinking when it comes to Saquon Barkley.

PHILADELPHIA - The spin that Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman didn't act out of character by agreeing to terms with free agent running back Saquon Barkley on a big-money, three-year contract depends on how deeply you want to dive into the weeds of a career that has had two acts.

In the first, less-successful version of Roseman, he did re-up LeSean McCoy for big money and technically still had a role in luring a virtually-washed DeMarco Murray from Dallas in 2015.

In the fast-moving world of the modern NFL, however, that has little relevance to current thinking because the allocation of assets to the position over that short distance was not viewed with rolled eyes. In fact, the 2.0 more successful version of Roseman, brought back from exile after Chip Kelly imploded, helped shape the devaluing of the RB position by building two Super Bowl rosters with a more-tempered financial approach at the position.

The context to that is that Roseman would have made an exception in 2017 had he gotten the chance to use a valuable asset (the No. 14 pick in the draft) on Christian McCaffrey. Last spring, had Bijan Robinson fallen a bit down the draft board, Roseman might have considered moving up from No. 30 as well with the belief that the evaluation matched the valuation for that particular player.

In Roseman's eyes, it's always about the player and certain talents press the pause button on conventional thinking. 

To boil that down even further at RB specifically, the Eagles are willing to invest heavily but only if the player is a true three-down difference-maker who can run the football, catch it coming out of the backfield, and hold up in pass protection.

That's what the Eagles and Roseman signaled Barkley is in their eyes when they decided to take the 2018 No. 2 overall pick south on the I-95 corridor.

With the deal done the only thing that matters moving forward is the evaluation of Barkely by Philadelphia.

Here's what SI.com's Eagles Today learned from various NFL sources outside the NovaCare Complex about the Eagles chase of Barkey.

BARKLEY OR BUST?

It wasn't Barkley or Bust for the Eagles.

The organization tried to re-sign 2023 Pro Bowl RB DeAndre Swift before the legal negotiating window opened but the Philadelphia native bet on himself and got a better deal from the Chicago Bears.

Swift also wasn't enamored with his role in last season's offense, particularly when it came to the passing game, according to a source close to the RB.

Ironically, the Bears were also interested in Barkley, and the Swift move, the first reported when the fireworks began, took one significant competitor for Barkley off the board narrowing things down to the Eagles and Houston Texans.

At that point, Philadelphia went to a higher number than most in the NFL expected to beat out Houston, which pivoted to a trade for former Cincinnati Pro Bowl back Joe Mixon as the replacement for Devin Singletary, who took Barkely's old spot with the New York Giants as 38 percent of the league shuffled the deck chairs at RB before the new league year even hit.

"Howie loves the player," a former NFL GM who knows Roseman well told SI.com's Eagles Today. "When he wants a player he generally does what it takes to get him."

The Eagles were not averse to bringing D'Andre Swift back :: John McMullen/Eagles Today

CMAC AND CIRCUMSTANCE

New Pittsburgh quarterback Russell Wilson was the Eagles' modern white whale for several years after Philadelphia missed out on the former Super Bowl-winning quarterback in the 2012 NFL Draft.

As Wilson's career waned, that mythical title was handed by some in the building to Christian McCaffrey, who has turned into the league's most dynamic RB and an MVP candidate for the 49ers who super-charged the San Francisco offense after being acquired in a trade with the Panthers.

McCaffrey is the NFL's highest-paid RB and no one is complaining about allocating significant assets to him, nor should they be. What is noted by one personnel executive, however, is that McCaffrey at that price range was not the right fit for a rebuilding Carolina team. 

The Eagles view Barkley in a similar vein, essentially a poor allocation of assets for a rebuilding football team like the Giants but a sensible one for a contender ready to win.

“The comp falls flat to me,” an NFL scout countered. “ Look at the revolving door [at the position]. No one played better than Aaron Jones down the stretch [last season] and he got cut. Barkley’s closer to everyone else than he is to McCaffrey."

CONTEXT

Barkley turned 27 last month so he's still far enough from the demarcation line of 30 to assume two seasons as the Eagles lead back.

From a traits standpoint few doubt he's got the skill to be a three-down back but 1,500 touches, many on the league's worst turf for a bad football team, along with a torn ACL in 2020, have taken their toll to the point many question whether Barkley has the same explosion he had when he entered the league as a prodigy.

Saquon Barkley Slams Tiki Barber: 'You Been a Hater!'

Over the past two seasons, the Eagles' lead backs -- Miles Sanders and Swift -- have averaged 4.9 yards and 4.6 yards respectively, numbers that Barkley has beaten only once in his career as a rookie in 2018 before the ACL and the MetLife turf. That's an eternity in the NFL.

His sub-4.0 rushing number from last season will surely improve while running behind one of the league's best offensive lines instead of the worst but it's hard to project much more efficacy in the running game than what the Eagles have been getting from “lesser players.” 

That means any improvements will come in the passing game, which might be more about Kellen Moore’s offense than Barkley because Swift and Kenny Gainwell are both plus receivers, and protection.

Those are more esoteric and limited avenues to shine for a player coming in with massive expectations.

Eagles Hit Home Run with Saquon Barkley Deal

WORTH THE SWING?

Big money for a RB under the exploding NFL salary cap isn't all that problematic. 

Before even seeing the guts of the Barkley contract which are always more team-friendly than the agent-driven numbers to start, a three-year, $37.75 million deal with $26 million guaranteed isn't crippling any team doing anything moving forward even if the Barkley move proves to be an abject disaster on the field.

From last July. People are shocked Eagles spent money on a RB. The rest of the league took a good idea (started in Philly), about investing in RB. Eagles signed a starting guard for $21M/yr the day before. At this size cap $12 for a quality starter at any position is a steal. https://t.co/HR2NEFhogc

— Joe Banner (@JoeBanner13) March 12, 2024

Perhaps it affected the budget in luring a potential answer at a more important position or one with a bigger need in the moment but the only real substantive gamble is a potential unsatisfactory grade on the Roseman reputation especially after comparable backs could have been had at a lesser price.

The GM has plenty of rope to survive that, though.

PRESUMPTION

The Eagles seem to believe they are getting a McCaffrey-like presence for their offense with Barkley. The more likely end game is a McCaffrey-lite, Wish.com version of the game's most impactful backfield player.