SI Sportsbook Odds Suggest Aaron Rodgers More Likely to Win MVP than Lamar Jackson or Tua Tagovailoa

The Jets' new starting quarterback ranks sixth overall on the NFL futures list

The last time Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett were working together the quarterback won the National Football League Most Valuable Player award. 

With the future Hall-of-Fame signal caller reunited with his favorite offensive coordinator as New York Jets, Rodgers may be a decent bet to capture another MVP. He currently carries the sixth-lowest odds to win the award again this upcoming season according to SI Sportsbook.

The Jets' new starting quarterback stands at +1400 (14-to-1) to finish first in the 2023 NFL MVP voting. 

Only five players -- all quarterbacks -- are more heavily favored than Rodgers. 

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, the reigning MVP, is the No. 1 favorite at +650. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow (+700) and Buffalo's Josh Allen (+750) are next. 

Los Angeles Chargers' field general Justin Herbert sits at +1000 followed by Philadelphia Eagles' franchise QB Jalen Hurts (+1200). 

Rodgers is more likely to win the MVP race than four other high-profile passers. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence, Miami's Tua Tagovailoa and Dallas's Dak Prescott are all tied on the odds board at +1600.

In 2021, Rodgers won the second of back-to-back MVP awards while running Hackett's offensive scheme. Leading the Green Bay Packers to a third straight 13-win season, Rodgers passed for 4,115 yards and 37 touchdowns while being intercepted only four times in 16 games. 

During the 2020 season, Hackett watched his quarterback set career highs in completion percentage (70.7) and touchdown passes (48).

In three years with Hackett wearing the headset, Rodgers accounted for 111 TD passes and only 13 interceptions. He did have the benefit of throwing to All-Pro wideout Davante Adams during both of those MVP campaigns, but there is hope that the 39-year old quarterback can create some of that chemistry with second-year receiver Garrett Wilson in New York.

Should Rodgers become the first Jet since Joe Namath to throw for 4,000 yards in a season and connect on about 35 scoring strikes, a fifth MVP award could be in the cards. 

SI Fantasy football analyst Michael Fabiano examined Rodgers' projected season totals earlier this month. Fabiano, who has the Jets' starter ranked as QB14 on his fantasy draft board, suggested the 4,000-yard mark is well within reach this year, but he did not advise betting the OVER on TD passes. 

“The good news for Rodgers is that with 17 games on the schedule, he’ll have to average just 232.4 passing yards per game to go over the 3,950.5 mark (assuming he doesn’t miss time). While he averaged just 217.4 yards through the air last season, Rodgers averaged more than 232.4 passing yards in every other season of his NFL career as a starter.

However, I’d take the under on 29.5 touchdown passes. Remember, only Fitzpatrick has had more than 30 touchdown passes in a single season as a member of the Jets. Vinny Testaverde was close with 29 in 1998, and Namath threw for 26 touchdowns in just 14 games way back in 1967.”

- Michael Fabiano (Read full article)

Only two quarterbacks from the NFC made the Top 10 list for NFL MVP in 2023.

AFC is 🔥🔥🔥@jenpiacenti dives in to the Post-Draft NFL MVP odds.https://t.co/KExq3opHh0

— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) May 2, 2023

* All NFL MVP odds provided by SI Sportsbook as of May 19 *

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