Three Keys to Unlocking Jets' Week 1 Victory over Bills

Gang Green's pass rush and run game success to determine result on MNF

The New York Jets have some heavy lifting to do on Monday night with the three-time defending division champions in town for the season opener at MetLife Stadium.

Despite their last-place finish, the Jets matched up well with the Buffalo Bills in 2022.

Robert Saleh's team limited Buffalo's high-octane offense to 37 combined points over a two-game span. During a 20-17 win in Week 9, Gang Green's defense held superstar quarterback Josh Allen in check to the tune of a 46.8 passer rating. It was Allen's lowest single-game rating of the season. In the second head-to-head battle, a 20-12 Bills' victory in Buffalo, the Jets held Allen to a season-low 147 pass yards.

This year, the Jets are expected to pack more punch on offense with the Aaron Rodgers Era kicking off on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Green & White defense welcomes back All-Pro talent at each level as it aims to improve last season's fourth overall ranking.

Here are three keys that, collectively, could unlock a Jets' win during what promises to be an emotionally-charged night on September 11 in East Rutherford.

Keep the Heat on Allen

The Bills' starting signal caller can beat a defense using his arm or legs. With Allen's ability to make good things happen on the run after the play breaks down, the Jets pass rush has to get home. 

"He has the ability to improvise and extend plays and make magic on those second plays, so it’s a great challenge. It’s a great barometer for this defense and where we’re at to play a high-level opponent like this," said Jets' defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

Gang Green's defensive line delivered numerous notable hits, highlighted by eight sacks, on Allen during the two 2022 meetings. 

The Jets' fifth, and final, sack in the November win resulted in an UCL injury for the Bills' field general. Bryce Huff blew past Buffalo left tackle Dion Dawkins and knocked the ball out of Allen's throwing hand in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter. 

"Our defensive line is one to be reckoned with in my opinion. Not only do we have very good players, we have a lot of depth," said Jeff Ulbrich.

The Jets' deep defensive line rotation should pose problems for a number of opponents this season and their performance will have a lot to say about Buffalo's Week 1 offensive output. 

"Their defensive line is outstanding. That’ll be a big challenge for us," said Bills' seventh-year head coach Sean McDermott.

Stick with the Run

The Jets already had Breece Hall but went out and added four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook. They have the horses needed for an effective rushing attack and they should heavily rely on the run against Buffalo in Week 1. 

Establishing a ground game will take heat off Rodgers and open up some appealing play-action looks in the pass game. It also gives the Jets a chance to control the clock, keeping Allen and his weapons on the sideline.

The Bills' defense could prove susceptible to a formidable rushing attack due to the fact that they have prioritized speed over size. Linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are both under 225 pounds. Buffalo employs only two backers in its base defensive formation which features slot cornerback Taron Johnson, whose role requires great responsibility against the run.

The Jets may also want to test a Bills' run defense in its first game since losing middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency. Bernard, a 2022 second-round draft pick, will start in place of Edmunds.

Running backs Dalvin Cook (33) and Breece Hall (20) :: X / @nyjets

Defending Buffalo's TE Duo

The Jets' defense appeared susceptible to the over-the-middle pass last season and the Bills will likely try to attack that area of the field by deploying tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. 

Knox, who made a touchdown catch against the Jets last December, will fill more of a traditional tight end role. 

Meanwhile, Kincaid, a first-round rookie, projects as more of a slot receiving option that an in-line tight end. Kincaid has already taken on a nickname of "Swole" Beasley in reference to Bills' former slot WR Cole Beasley.

"They added a tight end in the draft that is pretty darn good," said Jets' boss Robert Saleh.

With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis occupying Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed on the outside of the formation, Allen may opt for shorter gains in the middle.

The Jets feature two new, inexperienced starters at linebacker and free safety with Jamien Sherwood and Tony Adams combining for only 143 defensive snaps in 2022. They'll be key to stopping Knox and Kincaid on Monday night.

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