Week 11 Loss Would Severely Sink Playoff Chances for Jets and Bills

PFF suggests astonishingly high stakes for AFC East matchup on Sunday in Orchard Park

The data strongly supports the notion that it's a serious must-win situation for both teams when the New York Jets visit the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.

The Pro Football Focus playoffs projection model says more than a 30 percent swing in NFL postseason probability is at stake on Sunday in Orchard Park. A win would push the likelihood of a playoff berth above 40 percent for the victorious team while the losing side's chances will wind up on life support.

Through nine games, the Jets (4-5) sit with a 23 percent probability of qualifying for the playoffs in an ultra-competitive AFC. That percentage jumps to 44 percent with a win over Buffalo on November 19. A loss, however, knocks the Jets' postseason chances down to 13 percent.

"People are acting like it's the end of the world; we're 4-5. Every team has to go on a run to make the playoffs at some point," said tight end Tyler Conklin one day after a 16-12 setback in Las Vegas.

The Jets will try to kick start a playoffs push when facing two AFC East opponents in a six-day span. After the short trip to Buffalo, the Green & White returns home to host the Miami Dolphins (6-3) in the NFL's first-ever Black Friday Game on November 24.

Meanwhile, the Bills (5-5) are facing a 32 percent swing in probability depending on their Week 11 result, according to PFF. A win moves the Bills up to 45 percent to make the playoffs while a loss drops the defending three-time AFC East champions to a 13 percent chance of returning to the postseason. 

The Bills, who entered the week with a 34 percent likelihood of qualifying for the NFL Playoffs, are 2-5 against AFC opponents and conference record is used for tie-breaking purposes. New York has won two of six conference games thus far.

Adding to the desperation theme, teams on both sides of Sunday's showdown are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Jets are coming off back-to-back AFC losses to the Chargers and the Raiders, who are both ahead of Gang Green in the playoff picture, while the Bills have lost to the Bengals and Broncos in consecutive weeks. After falling at home, 24-22, to Denver, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Joe Brady.

The Jets and the Bills kick off at 4:25 pm ET on November 19 at Highmark Stadium.

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A must-win week for these teams 😬 pic.twitter.com/lPtbM0vyLZ

— PFF (@PFF) November 16, 2023

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