Three Days to Kickoff: 3 Reasons to Worry vs. Falcons

In a battle of polar opposites, the Packers are seven-point favorites but might not have it easy on Monday against the Atlanta Falcons.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 3-0; the Atlanta Falcons are 0-3. The Packers lead the NFL in scoring; the Falcons are last in the NFL in scoring defense. Packers coach Matt LaFleur has the best winning percentage in NFL history for any coach with at least 19 games; Falcons coach Dan Quinn is on the hot seat.

In this battle of polar opposites, the Packers are seven-point favorites at just about every sportsbook as of Friday morning. Still, there are reasons why this might not be a slam-dunk victory on Monday night. Here are three reasons to worry.

1. Julio Jones

Led by Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, the Packers have allowed opposing receivers to catch only 29 passes – tied for fifth-fewest in the NFL. But they’ve not faced a duo anywhere near the caliber of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. In fact, having missed out on Detroit’s Kenny Golladay and New Orleans’ Michael Thomas, they haven’t faced one player of their caliber. Jones and Ridley are two players who can take over a football game.

Jones has torched the Packers in his career. In 2014 at Lambeau Field, he caught 11 passes for 259 yards and one touchdown. In the 2016 NFC Championship Game, he had nine receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns. In 2018, when he met Alexander for the first time, he caught eight passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

“No. 1, he competes at a high level,” secondary coach Jerry Gray said. “Big, strong, physical guy who can catch the ball out of the air. He can win the 50-50 ball consistently. He’s going up against top corners and he’s won. When he stays healthy, he’s a really good football player.

Ridley, last year’s first-round pick, has 21 catches and is second in the NFL with 349 yards and first with four touchdowns. He also leads the NFL with five receptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

2. Matt Ryan

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ranks ninth in NFL history in completions and yards and 11th in touchdowns. He’s third in the NFL this season with 961 passing yards, putting him well on his way to a 10th consecutive season of 4,000-plus passing yards.

While he’s only 24th with a completion percentage of 62.5, he is perfectly capable of getting on a roll and carrying the Falcons. While the Packers haven’t allowed a lot of completions, they’re 28th with 7.88 yards per pass attempt and 30th with an opponent passer rating of 113.4.

“I think, for me, it’s about capitalizing when we have the opportunities,” Ryan said this week. “For me, personally, it’s about giving our guys chances to make plays on balls. So, I think I’ve done it pretty good through the start, but it can always be better. That’s the thing. That’s the thing I’m always striving for is to go through a game with excellent decision making, making sure I’m going to the right spots with the ball and then ultimately giving our guys a chance, giving them the kind of ball that can allow them to make a play on it. I think I can do that better for us as we move forward.”

LaFleur was the quarterbacks coach in Atlanta in 2015 and 2016. In 2016, Ryan won MVP and the Falcons reached the Super Bowl.

“They’re going to put up points and a lot of yards,” LaFleur said. “And so, couple that with the fact you have a lot of great players on that offensive side of the ball, Matt Ryan, got a lot of respect for him, and on the perimeter with Julio and Ridley, and you know, the tight end (Hayden) Hurst, there’s a lot of playmakers on that offense. Our defense definitely has its work cut out this week.”

3. Lack of Firepower?

With Ryan, Jones, Ridley and running back Todd Gurley, the Falcons are going to score. They’re sixth in the NFL with 30.0 points per game. Can Green Bay keep pace without Allen Lazard and, perhaps, Davante Adams?

The Falcons have allowed a league-worst 36.0 points per game but their weakness has been against the pass. They are 28th in opponent passer rating, 31st against the pass overall and 26th in yards per passing play. Two of their top three corners will be out, with Darqueze Dennard on injured reserve and A.J. Terrell on the COVID-19 list.

If Green Bay chooses to run the ball to compensate for the lack of perimeter weapons, it won’t be easy. Chicago’s David Montgomery managed only 45 yards on 14 attempts last week. In Week 2, Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott was limited to 89 yards on 22 tries. In Week 1, the Seattle tandem of Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde gained 44 yards on 13 carries.

More Countdown to Kickoff

Five Days: Five Keys to the Game

Four Days: Four Items from Inside the Falcons

Three Days: Three Reasons to Worry

Also: Taking Deeper Look at Missed Tackles

Also: Sportsbooks ‘Shocked’ by Packers