With Packers Picking 13th, Here’s What We (Think We) Know

The 2023 NFL Draft begins tonight. How will the seven-round extravaganza unfold for the Green Bay Packers?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Could tonight really be the night when the Green Bay Packers use their first-round draft pick on a receiver?

Yes. In asking league sources over the last week or so, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the one player who came up repeatedly when asked who the Packers might select.

“It would be kind of funny,” one source said in reference to Green Bay’s 21-year streak of not picking a receiver in the first round, “but this is about a really good player helping your most important asset. Brian (Gutekunst) needs Jordan (Love) to be a success. Draft Jaxon if he’s there or go get one of the tight ends.”

Speaking of tight ends, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid could be in play at No. 13 or in a small trade-back. For the most part, teams aren’t worried about the back injury that sidelined him for the end of last season and throughout the predraft process. “For the most part” being the key words because that’s not a unanimous feeling.

Surprisingly, there are mixed feelings in the scouting world for Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer. He’s got his backers, to be sure, and he’d be a strong fit for the Packers because of his ability to impact a game as a receiver and a blocker, but two called him “overrated” and said he could still be on the board in the middle of the second round.

One source who mentioned Smith-Njigba in the first round also mentioned Georgia tight end Darnell Washington. In fact, that source thought Washington was the best tight end in the draft.

Let’s make a deal? Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported that the Packers are among teams looking to trade up or trade down in the first.

That’s not a surprise, with Gutekunst laying the groundwork in both directions should the draft board take a surprise turn in a good direction (making it worthwhile to move up) or if the board was so strong that he could accumulate additional assets by trading back.

“I’d rather have volume,” Gutekunst said on Monday. “I’d rather have more picks; moving back’s always an option.”

The three wild cards from Green Bay’s perspectives are the quarterbacks, running back Bijan Robinson and Iowa pass rusher Lukas Van Ness.

The quarterbacks are always the wild card. It’s simple and familiar math with Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. The more quarterbacks that go in the first dozen picks, the more players that will fall to Green Bay.

Robinson doesn’t have an obvious landing spot but he’s legitimately the best offensive player in the draft.

Then there’s Van Ness, who seems to have universal support in the scouting community. Every single source said Van Ness would be gone before Green Bay is on the clock, which is why he was not the pick in our first-round projection. However, within those dozen picks before Green Bay is up:

- At least two quarterbacks will be drafted.

- Edges Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson will be selected, as will (presumably) defensive tackle Jalen Carter.

- Cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez will be picked.

- Offensive linemen Paris Johnson and Peter Skoronski will be taken, as well.

So, that’s nine players. What about Robinson? And a third or even fourth quarterback? And another offensive tackle? And Smith-Njigba? And Georgia edge Nolan Smith?

You get the idea.

So, it is possible Van Ness could fall into Green Bay’s lap. With size and upside meeting need, he’d be hard to pass up if he falls through the top 12.

When the Packers moved from No. 15 to No. 13 in the Aaron Rodgers trade, that two-pick difference increased the chances that one of the four stud offensive linemen – Johnson, Skoronski, Tennessee’s Darnell Wright and Georgia’s Broderick Jones – would be on the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who are picking 17th, need an offensive tackle and they’re behind the New York Jets, who are picking 15th and also need a tackle. If Gutekunst likes the board and the Steelers call, don’t be surprised if the Packers move back and perhaps pick up a third- or fourth-rounder in the process.

Four on the floor: Or, Gutekunst could just stay put and draft David Bakhtiari’s replacement. Jones is so talented and so athletic. He’s also so young. With a year of grooming behind the All-Pro Bakhtiari, the Packers could have their next decade-long blind-side protector. He was the No. 2 tackle on one team’s board.

Added together, that source’s first-round watch list was Smith-Njigba, Van Ness, Jones and Kincaid.

Speaking of offensive tackles, Ohio State’s Johnson has been a somewhat-popular pick for Green Bay in mocks but, as one source said, “There’s a less than 0 (percent) chance he gets through the top 10.” Skoronski is expected to go in the Top 10, too, and Wright has his supporters for a top-10 pick, as well.

The big need by volume is receiver. They have only five under contract at a position where they’d typically take 10 into training camp. Look for the Packers to draft at least two and probably three receivers, then be active in college free agency on Saturday.

Safety and tight end also will be targets for a couple picks.

In a perfect world, Green Bay would address offensive tackle and outside linebacker with early picks. With 13 offensive linemen and six outside linebackers under contract, the numbers are fine at those spots. What the Packers need is the big splash, not just a couple “guys.”

If the Packers are going to replace Mason Crosby, which appears to be the trajectory, it’s a slim field of kickers. Michigan’s Jake Moody is the best of the bunch and could be gone before the end of the fourth round, a source said. Parker White is the only kicker under contract.

The Packers need to add a quarterback but, again, it’s a slim field. Including Hendon Hooker, the Big 5 figure to be long gone before Green Bay is on the clock with its second-round picks. Hooker had a predraft visit but a source didn’t think the Packers would be shopping for a quarterback until Saturday. That stands in contrast to 2008, when the late Ted Thompson drafted Brian Brohm in the second round as the team made the Brett Favre-to-Rodgers transition.

Who could be options? Fresno State’s Jake Haener, BYU’s Jaren Hall and Georgia’s Stetson Bennett are really small by quarterback standards. Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell and Stanford’s Tanner McKee have the size but don’t have the athleticism to thrive in today’s NFL.

So, unless Gutekunst feels like taking a chance on someone who might not check all the boxes, the Day 3 quarterback lineup could be limited to Houston’s Clayton Tune, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, TCU’s Max Duggan and Division II star Tyson Bagent.

“That position is something that we spend as much time on as any year because we understand how important that position is to a football team,” Gutekunst said. “This year, it’s very important [but] really no more important than it has been in the past.”

Follow the draft all night, including a best-available list, right here at Packer Central.

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The Green Bay #Packers haven't drafted a receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2002.

I think that streak is going to end tonight. Here's why.https://t.co/NnUyK3FAiT

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) April 27, 2023

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