Does C.J. Stroud Need Texans Playoff Berth To Lock Up Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Will quarterback C.J. Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year even if the Houston Texans don't make the playoffs?

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will enter Week 18 as the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

But does he need the Texans -- currently the first team out in the AFC playoff picture -- to make the postseason to hold off Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua? The short answer is probably not.

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Even if the Texans finish at 9-8, that would be a remarkable turnaround for a franchise that won 11 total games between 2020-2022. Stroud did miss two whole games because of a concussion but has tossed 21 touchdowns to five interceptions in his first 14 professional games. 

He has a realistic chance to go over 4,000 passing yards in Week 18. This has been one of the most efficient rookie seasons a quarterback has ever turned in. 

That's not to say that Nacua doesn't deserve consideration, both for Offensive Rookie of the Year and for a First-Team All-Pro nod. The fifth-round pick out of BYU has been a revelation for the Rams, with 101 catches in his rookie season. 

He'll enter a Week 18 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers with 1,445 receiving yards, 29 yards away from breaking the rookie single-season receiving yardage record of 1,473 set by Bill Groman of the Houston Oilers in 1960. 

What Recent History Tells Us About C.J. Stroud-Puka Nacua Rookie of the Year Race

But recent history suggests that if there's anything close to a tie between a quarterback and a receiver for an award, the quarterback is going to win. 

That's why Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert won Offensive Rookie of the Year over Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson in 2020, and it's likely why Stroud will edge out Nacua in 2023. 

Of course, if Nacua goes for 200 yards in Week 18 -- unlikely given that the Rams are resting some key starters in preparation for the postseason and may pull him once he breaks the record -- and Stroud throws five interceptions, maybe things will change. 

But based on how the season has gone, there's no reason to think Stroud won't lead the Texans to a win-and-in victory Saturday evening agains the Indianapolis Colts. That would likely lock up the award for the No. 2 overall pick. 

And hey, if the Texans win Saturday and the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, that will allow Stroud and company to win the AFC South, along with the top award for rookies.