GameDay Prediction: Back Home in Indiana, Can I See Titans Snapping Out of Road Woes?

The Tennessee Titans haven't played well on the road so far this season, but they're actually favored on Sunday when they take on the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. It's a road game back at home for me, and I've got a lot of solid knowledge to use on making my game-day prediction. Your thoughts?

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — Nashville is home for me now, but I am an Indiana native. I was born here, raised here, went to college here and I've had two thoroughly enjoy stints of my work career here.

I was fully involved in the Colts-Titans rivalry from 2008 to 2011 as the assistant sports editor of the Indianapolis Star. I coordinated all of our Colts coverage on the weekends, which included a Super Bowl. The Colts-Titans rivalry was always intense.

One thing I learned then and still know now is that these two teams don't like each other very much. That's not so surprising considering that they've battled nose-to-nose for division titles often. And there's been several years where they were both very good.

One of those years was 2009, my first season back in Indianapolis. The Titans went 13-3 to beat the Colts by a game. The Titans won early in Nashville, then the two teams played the final game of the season and with playoff positions already clinched, neither starters played much in a 23-0 Colts win. Both were very good, and fun to watrch.

The Titans were the No. 1 seed that year, but lost to Baltimore in the divisional round, 13-10. It was a bitter defeat, as was the Colts' first-round loss to San Diego. 

They headed in different directions from there. 

In 2009, the Colts won their first 14 games and were shamed for tanking in their final two games, losing twice instead of going for a perfect season. They lost to the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl that season. The Titans went 8-8 after losing its first six games.

In 2010, the Titans went 6-10 and then 9-7 in 2011 but missed the playoffs both years. In Indianapolis, the Peyton Manning era came to an end, and I was out the door, too, a victim of a massive Gannett layoff.

It was a fun run though, because I thoroughly enjoyed those Colts teams, and loved the rivalry with the Titans. I knew Peyton Manning from his time in college at Tennessee and knew Tony Dungy well from my time working in Tampa Bay. I was happy they had so much success in Indianapolis, winning one Super Bowl and playing in another on my watch.

I've paid close attention since then, of course, and I worked here in Indiana again starting in 2019. I was doing college sports here — mostly Indiana, with a dash of Purdue and the rest of the Big Ten — and most of my Sports Illustrated/FanNation readers were Colts fans, too.

I moved to Franklin, Tenn,, this year to cover the Titans here at AllTitans.com, and now I'm on the other side of the rivalry. I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of old friends today at Lucas Oil Stadium, 

I'm also looking forward to seeing a good game, which starts at Noon CT. Here's all the info on how to watch. CLICK HERE 

Picking a winner in Titans games has been a little tough for me. They've been really good at home, playing two teams that made the playoffs last year, the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals, and I didn't really see that coming.

They've been really bad on the road, losing at New Orleans and Cleveland and they've still yet to score a touchdown on the road. That's bad, and that's fact, too.

The Colts, who weren't expected to be much this season, are 2-2 as well, but they've done it in reverse. They've lost both home games but won twice on the road. Weird, right?

That's what makes this game so strange to figure out because there are a lot of weird numbers and trends at play, and that's the worst for prognosticators.

Get this:

• This is the first time the Titans have been favored all season. They were underdogs in the first four games, but covered three times. The Colts have been underdogs in all five games.
• The roof is open today at Lucas Oil Stadium, but the end zone window will be closed on a cool mid-50s day. Why does that matter? Well, that combination has only happened nine time in stadium history — and the Colts are 9-0! Can that trend continue?
• The Colts have lost seven straight games at Lucas Oil Stadium, including the two this year. What about that trend? Something has to give there, too, right?

According to DraftKings, the Titans are 2.5-point favorites as of Sunday morning. I'm leaning toward the Titans in this game, because I think they found something last week in the blowout win over the Bengals, and they're sick of losing on the road.

There are three keys here for me:

1. I think the depleted Colts secondary will really struggle to contain DeAndre Hopkins. I think the veteran receiver goes over 100 yards for the first time as a Titan today. (Hint, I think the Hopkins (53.5 yards) and Ryan Tannehill (217.5 yards) over play is a nice parlay.)
2. I'm not going to get too caught up in the Jonathan Taylor return for the Colts. Owner Jim Irsay made it clear on Saturday night that he doesn't want to see Taylor rushed back into action after not practicing at all so far this year. If he gets more than 10 carries, I'll be stunned. And we know how good the Titans are against the run, so I think it's much ado about nothing.
3. The Titans' offensive line was better last week, and they should get some help from the return of rookie guard Peter Skoronski this week. I can see them opening some holes for Derrick Henry, and giving Tannehill enough time to throw. I think the Titans offense will look good.

With all that said, I do think the Titans will score some points today. They have only scored 18 points TOTAL in those two road losses, but they go way over that today. They will get their first road touchdowns today, probably a couple of them.

I'm taking the Titans, winning 27-17. That's asking a lot out of a Titans team that has not played well on the road, but they're also feeling more comfortable with each other, and they are playing with a lot of confidence, too. I can see them building off of last Sunday's win, and play well again today.

It'll be fun to be home. 

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