Men's College Basketball Betting Preview: LSU-Auburn, Seton Hall-Providence

Betting insight and analysis for a pair of top-25 conference matchups in the Big East and SEC.

One of the few remaining undefeated teams, No. 16 LSU, puts its sterling record on the line in its first SEC game of the season against No. 11 Auburn. 

No. 15 Seton Hall opens Big East play against No. 21 Providence, following a few weeks off due to postponements and cancellations.

My colleague Kevin Sweeney rejoins me this week as a guest picker in our quest to eclipse .500 on the season.

Season record: 14-14
Guest pickers: 6-6

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Butch Dill/AP

No. 16 LSU (12-0) vs. No. 11 Auburn (11-1)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Spread: LSU +4.5 (-110) | Auburn -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Under 143.5 (-110) | Over 143.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LSU (+165) | Auburn (-200)

LSU is one of five remaining undefeated Division I teams. There’s a big caveat to that perfect record, though: The Tigers’ strength of schedule is 279th out of 358, according to ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index. Auburn will be by far the most difficult challenge of the season for LSU to date. The game also marks the second true road game of the season for the Tigers, only adding to the challenge.

For the valid knocks against the Tigers’ schedule, they have mowed down every team in their path. LSU is tied for the second-best scoring margin in the nation (+25) and allows the second-fewest points (54.1). It leads the nation with 12.8 steals per game.

The offense is led by sophomore Tari Eason, a transfer from Cincinnati, who averages 16.3 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game. LSU’s scoring offense (79.6 PPG) is tied for 40th-best, and the team surpassed triple digits in the season opener.

Auburn lost in double overtime on Nov. 24 against UConn and hasn’t lost since. Only two games during that eight-game winning streak have been within single digits—a nine-point win over Loyola Chicago and a four-point victory on the road against St. Louis. Auburn is much more battle-tested than its SEC opponent. The Tigers have the No. 8 strength of record, per ESPN’s CBPI, and the No. 69 strength of schedule.

Sophomore Walker Kessler swats 3.7 shots per game to contribute to the Tigers leading the country in blocks per game (7.7). Auburn doesn’t have the same overall defensive prowess that LSU does, but it sure can score. The Tigers average 81.1 PPG, the 29th-best mark in DI. Freshman forward Jabari Smith leads the team in scoring (16.2 PPG) and rebounding (7.2 RPG) while shooting 45.2% from deep.

Kyle Wood’s Bets:

Spread/Moneyline Pick: Auburn Moneyline

What LSU has done to this point in the season should be commended, but it’s about to find out what it’s made of when it faces five top-20 teams in its next seven games. I think Auburn gives LSU its first wake-up call. I think home court will play a factor in LSU’s toughest test yet. Auburn overcomes LSU’s seemingly suffocating defense and hands the Tigers from Baton Rouge their first loss of the season.

Over/Under Pick: Under 143.5

I’m not anticipating any sort of blowout, just an Auburn win. Auburn has a great offense, but LSU can keep the Tigers from creeping into the 80s. For context, the most points LSU has allowed this season was 63—in overtime. Auburn isn’t a defensive stalwart but Kessler can control the paint and keep LSU to outside shots, where it shoots just 32.2% from deep.

Guest Picker Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:

Spread/Moneyline Pick: LSU +4.5

I’m on the record saying LSU will take its first loss of the season in this game, but I do think the value at this current line is on Will Wade’s team. Four points is a big number for a team with a defense that has been as remarkable as LSU’s has this season. LSU makes life difficult at the rim and turns teams over at an impressive rate, and both those attributes make them a tricky matchup to cover four points against for pretty much anyone. Auburn Arena will be rocking, and I think the crowd plus potential No. 1 pick Jabari Smith will drag Auburn across the finish line … but not without a fight from LSU.

Over/Under Pick: Under 143.5

This is a tricky number because it feels low given how fast both teams are willing to play, but high considering how good these defenses are on a per-possession basis. I lean towards the under though given the struggles LSU has had offensively against high-major competition. We know their defense will keep them in it, but I’m not sure their offense can get up into the 70s in this game.

Jessica Hill/AP

No. 15 Seton Hall (9-1) vs. No. 21 Providence (11-1)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | FS1
Spread: Seton Hall -1 (-110) | Providence +1 (-110)
Over/Under: Under 138.5 (-110) | Over 138.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Seton Hall (-118) | Providence (+100)

Seton Hall was last seen beating Rutgers on its home court by 14. That was all the way back on Dec. 12, two postponements and one cancellation ago. As the Pirates resume play on the road to begin their conference schedule. It’s worth remembering what Seton Hall accomplished early in the season, even after a near-three-week hiatus. The Pirates took down then-No. 4 Michigan on the road and then-No. 7 Texas at home, scoring two huge wins for their resume come Selection Sunday.

The Pirates rely on their strong offense, which averages the 37th-most points in the nation (80.1). They showed their full capabilities against Nyack College when they poured in a season-high 113 points. Senior guard Jared Rhoden is the primary scoring threat on a deep team. He leads Seton Hall in scoring with 17.4 PPG and is first in rebounding with 7.3 rebounds per game. Five other Pirates players average eight points or better and the team has had five different leading scorers in its 10 games.

Providence enters Tuesday on a six-game winning streak, including a 57-53 road win in its Big East opener over then-No. 20 UConn on Dec. 18. That was the last time the Friars played as they too were impacted by a postponed game against Georgetown. Providence is undefeated at home, with its sole loss coming at a neutral site at the hands of Virginia.

The Friars are not especially impressive on offense. They average 69.8 PPG and run their offense through fifth-year senior center Nate Watson, who averages 14.8 PPG. Defense isn’t Providence’s calling card, either, though it has held its last four opponents under 60 points.

Kyle Wood’s Bets:

Spread/Moneyline Pick: Seton Hall -1

I think Seton Hall returns to the court from its time off and does something it’s already done this season: Score a quality road win. Providence isn’t going to stifle the Pirates’ stellar offense, which can beat teams in a variety of ways with a multitude of scorers, and the Friars simply won’t be able to keep up in the scoring department.

Over/Under Pick: Over 138.5

This number is too low for me to go under, even with the availability or conditioning concerns. Eclipsing 70 points is not a big ask for either team, especially with Providence, the lesser offense, playing at home. Both teams' poor three-point shooting is cause for concern in picking the over, but Seton Hall has a top-40 scoring offense in spite of those inefficiencies outside so it’s clearly not a crippling weakness.

Guest Picker Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:

Spread/Moneyline Pick: Providence -1

Seton Hall is coming off a COVID-19 pause and Providence has “a couple players'' in health and safety protocols. That makes picking this game quite a challenge. I’d wait as long as I can to pick a side in this one to see if information becomes available about the unavailable Friars, but if Providence’s core rotation is intact I’m inclined to lean towards them in this one. PC has one of the best bigs in the country in Nate Watson, and he should be able to control the paint if Seton Hall center Ike Obiagu is out or limited due to an ankle injury suffered earlier this month.

Over/Under Pick: Under 138.5

One team is playing its first game in 17 days and spent some of that time quarantined. One team will be short-handed and could be without key pieces. That’s the time to play an under if I’ve ever seen one. Add in the fact that both these squads are pretty stingy on the defensive end and Providence has been great this season at slowing the game down, and I love the under play here.

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