Indianapolis Colts Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Colts hope new quarterback Matt Ryan can guide them back to the playoffs, and their over/under at SI Sportsbook is 9.5 wins.

The Colts said goodbye to Carson Wentz and hello to Matt Ryan in the offseason. Meanwhile, sophomore Jonathan Taylor was the league’s leading rusher in 2021.

Could this be the season Frank Reich has been waiting for in Indianapolis?

Let’s break it down.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Michelle Pemberton/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Indianapolis Colts Over/Under: 9.5 - O (-152) | U (+110)

2021-2022 record: 9-8; Second AFC South; Missed playoffs
AFC South future odds: -110 (First)
AFC future odds: +1000 (Tied-fifth)
Super Bowl future odds: +2000 (Tied-10th)

Key additions: QB Matt Ryan, DE Yannick Ngakoue, CB Stephon Gilmore
Key losses: QB Carson Wentz; WR Zach Pascal, CB Xavier Rhodes

Horseshoe Huddle offseason grade: A-

The Colts made significant upgrades at arguably the two most important positions; quarterback and edge rusher, while keeping much of their nucleus intact. Last year’s team looked like it could’ve beaten anyone in the NFL but one of its biggest issues was erratic quarterback play. Ryan should bring the stability, accountability and leadership the Colts are looking for. As for edge rusher, Ngakoue has been one of the NFL’s most consistent pass rushers throughout his career, never recording fewer than 44 total pressures (per PFF). The addition of Gilmore also represents an upgrade to the secondary. The Colts wisely moved on from Wentz and Fisher. However, not signing proven players at left tackle or wide receiver keeps them from receiving an even higher grade.—Chad Jenson

Schedule:

Week 1: at Texans
Week 2: at Jaguars
Week 3: Chiefs
Week 4: Titans
Week 5: at Broncos
Week 6: Jaguars
Week 7: at Titans
Week 8: Commanders
Week 9: at Patriots
Week 10: at Raiders
Week 11: Eagles 
Week 12: Steelers
Week 13: at Cowboys
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at Vikings
Week 16: Chargers
Week 17: at Giants
Week 18: Texans

Ryan threw for 3,968 yards and 20 touchdowns with a 67% completion rate for the Falcons last season while working with a weakened passing attack that featured only five games from Calvin Ridley. Now, Ryan gets a better offensive line, better weapons, and a Reich system that uses plenty of play-action screen passes.

I can’t say enough about how much I like the upgrade at quarterback for the Colts.

Ranking the Best Quarterback Moves of the Offseason

We’ve never seen Ryan outside of Atlanta, but we have seen him throw for 4,000-plus yards in 10 of his 14 seasons. Sure, he’s getting older (37), but try telling that to back-to-back reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. 

Meanwhile, Taylor is a threat by himself. He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns and tallied 40 catches for another 360 yards and two scores last season.  

If defenses focus on Taylor, that could open things up for Ryan and vice versa.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | HOU | JAX | Division Odds

Michael Pittman Jr. should also take another step forward after seeing a 24% target share in 2021. He caught 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns.

The Colts’ toughest division competition appears to be the Titans but they traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles, and may be starting the season without Robert Woods and a rookie WR1 in first-round draft pick Treylon Burks.     

Indianapolis finished last season with nine wins. Can the Colts make it to 10?

Beginning with their own division, the AFC South, it appears the Colts have a pretty good pathway to wins. They will face the Jaguars, Titans and Texans each twice. I see the Colts likely taking both from the Texans and Jaguars, while splitting with the Titans. That brings my total to five and I am halfway to 10 already.

Moving along to the rest of their AFC matchups, the Colts will host the Chiefs, Steelers and Chargers. The Chargers and Chiefs should give the Colts good competition, but they should win a matchup with the Steelers. Let’s call this six. 

The Colts have away games versus the Broncos, Raiders and Patriots. I will give them two of these three. I’m now at eight wins.

Michelle Pemberton/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

That leaves the Colts needing two wins versus NFC teams to hit the over for their wins total. I’ll say they easily win at home versus the Commanders and their former quarterback in Wentz and also win their away game versus the Giants, who have a win total of only 7.5 wins. I’m at 10 wins before counting matchups with the Cowboys, Eagles, and Vikings. The Colts face the Eagles at home, and the Cowboys and Vikings on the road. I could see the Colts winning any or all of these games. 

So, yeah. I’m buying in. As long as Ryan stays healthy—and he’s been one of the most dependable QBs in the NFL—the Colts easily hit the over.    

BET: Over 9.5 wins (-152)

Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter

Check the Latest Odds from SI Sportsbook

More Betting, Fantasy and NFL:
• Super Bowl Odds
• Mattress Mack’s Big Astros Bet
• NFL Week 1 Line Movement
• AL Awards Odds
• Heisman Trophy Odds
• 2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds
• Big 12 Betting Preview
• Bold NFL Betting Predictions
• SI Fantasy Draft Kit
• MMQB: Analyzing Kyler’s Deal