Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Falcons are tied for the lowest projected win total in the NFL with 4.5 wins. Can Drake London and Kyle Pitts carry Atlanta to five wins?

The Falcons plodded to seven wins a season ago while hanging on to the last vestiges of the team that infamously blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl.

Given the Falcons’ -146 point differential in 2021, it was a wonder that they even managed to eke out that many victories.

Now that franchise legend Matt Ryan is playing in Indianapolis (a trade that returned a third-round pick and incurred $40 million in dead money) and top receiver Calvin Ridley is suspended for the season for gambling, the rebuild is in full swing and Atlanta projects to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | CAR | Division Odds

The franchise took some swings in the draft at receiver Drake London and quarterback Desmond Ridder and brought in capable veterans on both sides of the ball to put a band-aid on a roster that’s hamstrung by $60 million in dead money, in large part thanks to Ryan and Julio Jones, who was traded the previous offseason. 

Those moves, such as signing quarterback Marcus Mariota (who has experience with coach Arthur Smith in Tennessee) and bringing in Casey Hayward to pair with blossoming star A.J. Terrell in the secondary, did not move the needle, though.

The Falcons’ projected win total at SI Sportsbook is set at 4.5 wins. They are not favored in any game this season, which tracks given that Atlanta is going up against one of the 10 hardest schedules in the league. Will this team outperform expectations once again or does a top-three pick in the quarterback-rich 2023 draft await?

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Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Falcons Over/Under: 4.5 - O (-125) | U (-111)

2021-22 record: 7-10; Third NFC South; Missed playoffs
NFC South future odds: +2000 (Fourth)
NFC future odds: +8000 (16th)
Super Bowl future odds: +20000 (T-31st)

Key additions: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Drake London, CB Casey Hayward
Key losses: QB Matt Ryan, WR Calvin Ridley (suspension), WR Russell Gage

Falcon Report offseason grade: B-

“The Falcons swung and missed on Deshaun Watson, leading to a chain reaction of moves that eventually forced Atlanta to fully begin its rebuild a year early. Their Watson pursuit led to trading Ryan after 14 seasons under center. The team also transformed its front seven after releasing Fowler and letting Oluokun, last year’s tackle leader, walk in free agency. As a team, the Falcons got worse, but sometimes you need to take a step back to move forward.” — Jeremy Brener

SCHEDULE

Week 1: Saints
Week 2: At Rams
Week 3: At Seahawks
Week 4: Browns
Week 5: At Buccaneers
Week 6: 49ers
Week 7: At Bengals
Week 8: Panthers
Week 9: Chargers
Week 10: At Panthers
Week 11: Bears
Week 12: At Commanders
Week 13: Steelers
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: At Saints
Week 16: At Ravens
Week 17: Cardinals
Week 18: Buccaneers

Cordarrelle Patterson’s emergence as a dual-threat weapon in the rushing and receiving game made the Falcons fun (especially for fantasy football players) and Kyle Pitts lived up to his draft stock by turning in a 1,000-yard season in Year 1.

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Those weapons will be back in the fold this season along with London (the first receiver selected in April’s draft), Bryan Edwards and running backs Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier (a fifth-round rookie).

It seems Mariota, not Ridder, will begin the season as the starter after a two-year stint in Las Vegas as a backup, even though he threw just 30 passes across 11 games. No matter who’s behind center, the crop of young, talented skill position players will make life easier. Playing behind the No. 27 offensive line, per PFF, is another story.

Atlanta’s offense ranked seventh-worst in the NFL in scoring last year and its defense was even more dreadful. Playing in a division with Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, Jameis Winston’s Saints and the Panthers, who improved at quarterback with the addition of Baker Mayfield, makes life on the defensive side of the ball that much more difficult.

Let’s start with the NFC South, which the Falcons went 2-4 against a season ago.

The season begins at home against the Saints and Atlanta is a 4.5-point underdog. There is no line for the Week 15 bout in the Super Dome, but it’s certainly safe to say New Orleans will be an even heavier favorite. Call that 0-2 against the Saints.

The Falcons were swept by the Buccaneers last season and are double-digit underdogs for their first meeting of 2022, which is in Tampa. The Bucs figure to be road favorites in Atlanta when they meet again, so that’s an 0-4 start in division play.

Both games against the Panthers are winnable.

The Falcons are narrow underdogs at home in the first meeting but let’s call that a win for the Birds. They play again two weeks later in Charlotte and Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite. Again, it’s a winnable game but a split seems most likely. That’s a 1-5 mark against an NFC South that projects to produce two playoff teams.

Four games against the NFC West, including two early cross-country trips to Los Angeles and Seattle, could add four more losses to the tally. The Rams are nearly two-touchdown home favorites in Week 2 and the Seahawks are favored by a little more than field goal. That’s likely a brutal loss in L.A. and maybe a win in the Pacific Northwest. Atlanta also hosts the 49ers later in the season as a touchdown underdog and there’s no line available for a Week 17 visit from the Cardinals.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Even accounting for Arizona’s late-season regression, that’s still a loss for Atlanta. Throw in a 1-3 mark against the NFC West and the Falcons’ projected record so far is 2-8. The final two NFC games come on the road against the Commanders and at home against the Bears. Washington is a five-point favorite and the Chicago game is a pick ‘em, so we’ll call that a split to bring the record to 3-9.

The remaining five games against AFC opponents are brutal.

The Falcons face the AFC North and are home 4.5-point underdogs in Week 4 against the Browns, double-digit dogs in Cincinnati and are getting nearly a field goal at home against the Steelers. There’s no line for the Week 16 date in Baltimore, but it will likely be similar to the Bengals line.

Despite the close spread against Pittsburgh, I think the AFC North sweeps Atlanta and the Chargers, who are 7.5-point road favorites, score a win over the Falcons as well.

Projecting three wins gives Atlanta leeway to steal another game and still stay under its projected total. Maybe that’s a win over the Commanders or an early-season upset of the Browns or even a surprise victory against the Steelers. Regardless, the path to five wins for this roster as currently constructed simply isn’t there against this schedule.

Atlanta could very well be headed to its worst season this century.

BET: Under 4.5 wins (-111)

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