NFL Player Props: Najee Harris Yards and Touchdowns Bets Breakdown

Bets to place at SI Sportsbook on Steelers running back Najee Harris’s props for his rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and combined yards.

Shawn Childs | Aug 22, 2022

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Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers gave running back Najee Harris an incredible 381 touches during his rookie season last year and he logged 81.4% of their plays. His opportunity paints a high ceiling, but his yards per rush (3.9) and yards per catch (6.3) ranked well below the league average. Pittsburgh needs his offensive line to play much better, and its change at quarterback may lead to a step back in early down runs.

Here’s a look at the Steelers’ rushing running back stats over the past five seasons:

2017 – 401/1,630/11 – 4.06 yards per rush
2018 – 373/1,864/13 – 5.00 yards per rush
2019 – 353/1,330/7 – 3.77 yards per rush
2020 – 339/1,325/12 – 3.91 yards per rush
2021 – 386/1,525/9 – 3.95 yards per rush

Pittsburgh gained less than 4.00 yards per carry from its backs over the past three seasons and the Steelers didn’t improve their offensive line in the offseason.

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Betting props for Najee Harris

Rushing Yards: 1,150.5

Based on last season, Harris would need a minimum of 295 rushes to beat his over/under total in rushing yards. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has a history of riding one back on most plays. Harris is a power runner who falls in line with the profile of Derrick Henry. His missing link in 2021 was big plays (six runs over 20 yards). He’s too good of a player to rank poorly in yards per carry. I expect growth in this area this season, leading to Harris landing on the over side of his rushing yards prop.

Bet: Over 1,150.5 rushing yards

Rushing Touchdowns: 9.5

Harris scored only seven times on the ground last year despite securing 79.5% of Pittsburgh’s running back rushing attempts (386).

Mitchell Trubisky brings a running profile, and he can be expected to snipe a few rushing scores. Pittsburgh wants to throw the ball, but the change at quarterback should lead to more rushing attempts at the goal line. His projected total for rushing touchdowns is a tight number and one I would not pursue in the prop market.

Bet: Pass

Rushing and Receiving Yards: 1,600.5

In Le’Veon Bell’s three best seasons for the Steelers, he averaged 23.3, 28.0, and 27.1 touches over 43 starts. He gained 2,215 yards, 1,884 yards (12 games) and 1,946 yards over this span (141 yards per start). In comparison, Harris finished with 22.4 chances per game in his rookie season while averaging 98 yards.

For Harris to make more significant plays, Pittsburgh must figure out how to get him in space at the second level of the defense. His ceiling projects much higher than his 3.9 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per catch during his rookie season.

I don’t consider Harris in the Bell’s class, and the Steelers’ offense and quarterback play aren’t where they where when Ben Roethlisberger was in his prime. However, I expect Harris to rank highly in touches, and his powerful running style should keep him on the field all season. He will undoubtedly improve in 2022, but Harris needs Pittsburgh’s starting quarterbacks to look for him on a high number of passing plays.

Bet: Over 1,600.5 combined yards

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Published Aug 22, 2022

SHAWN CHILDS