NFL Player Props: Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards and Touchdowns, Total Yards Bets Breakdown

Breaking down Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey’s prop bets. McCaffrey has suffered through back-to-back injury-plagued seasons.

We haven’t seen a full season from Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey since 2019 when he rushed for 1,387 yards and also added another 1,005 yards through the air. The subsequent seasons have been mired with injury, but when he’s been healthy, CMC has remained one of the best producers in fantasy football.

Running Back Props Series: Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Taylor | Ekeler | Harris
Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

On a per-game basis, McCaffrey finished as the RB4 or better in the four healthy games he played with at least a 50% snap share in 2021. None of the star running back’s injuries have required major surgery, making betting on CMC even trickier. If fully healthy, CMC will blow past his props in Las Vegas. If not, he could fall far short.

I’m willing to bet on a healthier season from McCaffrey, but how much risk should we tolerate? Certainly betting the under is the safer bet but that’s not much fun.

Let’s break it down.

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Nell Redmond/AP

Rushing Yards : 875.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

McCaffrey rushed for only 667 yards combined in 2020 and 2021. However, those rushing yards were accumulated in only ten games and in three games he had less than a 50% snap share. But let’s assume he averages just 67 yards per game on the ground in 2022. CMC would need to play in thirteen games to eclipse this mark.

NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds

While I do believe McCaffrey will be highly productive this upcoming season, the safer play is probably betting on the under here. The fact that D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard are McCaffrey’s backups says to me that the Panthers still intend to run the offense through McCaffrey as long as he can manage his health. I want to emphasize that managing his health is a very, very important part of this bet.

BET: Under 875.5 rushing yards (-115)

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Rushing Touchdowns : 8.5
Over (+110) |Under (-140)

In McCaffrey’s breakout 2019 season, he rushed for 15 touchdowns.

We certainly can’t expect that after only ten healthy games across the past two seasons, but maybe we can look back to 2018 for some guidance.

McCaffrey rushed for 1,098 yards and seven rushing touchdowns across a full 16-game season in 2018. He also scored six times as a receiver, but this prop is only counting goal line carries. As a fantasy manager I am counting on McCaffrey to have a big season, but am I betting on nine or more rushing touchdowns? Nope.

Bet: Under 8.5 rushing touchdowns  (-140)

Nell Redmond/AP

Rushing + Receiving Yards : 1595.5
Over (-115)| Under (-115)

We took the under on the rushing yards prop, but on this prop I am going to swing the other way. Even while playing only seven games last season, McCaffrey’s combined receiving and rushing yards total was 112 yards per game. Again, in only four of those did he see more than a 50% snap share, so I am using 112 yards as a floor.

CMC would need to play in 14 games for the over at this rate, but with Baker Mayfield likely under center I think this is the best over bet of the bunch. CMC caught 37 of his 41 targets in 2021 (90.2%) and he averaged 9.3 yards per catch.

Bet: Over 1595.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

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