San Francisco 49ers Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The 49ers are starting a new era with Trey Lance and their over/under at SI Sportsbook is 9.5 wins.

Trey Lance inherits a team with high expectations.

The 49ers paid a premium to move up in the 2021 draft to select him third overall last spring. He then sat for the majority of his rookie year.

Jimmy Garoppolo remained the starter for San Francisco, which made its second NFC Championship Game appearance in three seasons and came just shy of returning to the Super Bowl. Lance played sparingly across six games, starting two, though he apparently showed enough for coach Kyle Shanahan to move on to the dynamic dual-threat from a more traditional pocket passer in Garoppolo.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SEA | Division Odds

Lance walks into an offense that has worked wonders for quarterbacks before him and has a slew of talented skill position players around him, like receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle and running back Elijah Mitchell. A shakeup along the offensive line could make things more difficult on Lance and the run game early on but the unit is still anchored by left tackle Trent Williams.

The defense ranks among the top units in football with a terrifying front line headlined by Nick Bosa. Behind that front four is one of the best linebacker groups in football and the secondary is an improved unit thanks to the addition of Charvarius Ward

Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

Trotting out essentially a red-shirt FCS quarterback has not dampened expectations in the Bay at all. The 49ers are projected to not only make the playoffs in the top-heavy NFC but they also have some of the best Super Bowl odds at SI Sportsbook. That seems fair given how close this team was to accomplishing that goal two years ago and it almost had another chance last season before losing to the Rams.

With a talented defense, one of the best offensive schemes and a quarterback brought in to raise the ceiling, why wouldn’t they be expected to contend again?

That starts with taking care of opponents in the regular season. The 49ers’ schedule isn’t especially challenging, though they will be tested against the AFC West and a few fellow NFC heavyweights.

Can they get to 10 wins? Or will Year 1 of the Lance era get off to an inauspicious start?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers Over/Under: 9.5 - O (-152) | U (+110)

2021-22 record: 10-7; Third NFC West; 6-seed; Lost NFC Championship Game
NFC West future odds: +175 (Second)
NFC future odds: +750 (Fourth)
Super Bowl future Odds: +1400 (Tied-sixth)

Key additions: CB Charvarius Ward, DE Drake Jackson, RB Tyrion Davis-Price
Key losses: OL Alex Mack, OL Laken Tomlinson, CB K’Waun Williams, DE Arden Key

All 49ers offseason grade: C+

The 49ers had a modest offseason. In free agency, they addressed their two biggest needs—cornerback and special teams—but also lost three starters on their offensive line, two key contributors to their defensive line, two starters in the secondary and the fastest running back in the NFL when healthy. Most people expected the 49ers would be more aggressive considering they went to the NFC Championship Game last season and were one or two players away from a Super Bowl title.—Grant Cohn

SCHEDULE

Week 1: At Bears
Week 2: Seahawks
Week 3: At Broncos
Week 4: Rams
Week 5: At Panthers
Week 6: At Falcons
Week 7: Chiefs
Week 8: At Rams
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Chargers
Week 11: At Cardinals (Mexico)
Week 12: Saints
Week 13: Dolphins
Week 14: Buccaneers
Week 15: At Seahawks
Week 16: Commanders
Week 17: At Raiders
Week 18: Cardinals

San Francisco went just 2-4 against the NFC West last season, a record that could easily flip this year. The Seahawks got appreciably worse over the offseason after the Russell Wilson trade. For all the headlines they made, the Cardinals largely stayed the same, though they will be without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season. And then there’s the Rams, who reloaded for another run.

Running Back Props Series: Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler

The 49ers are favored by more than a touchdown at home against Seattle in Week 2, which should be an easy win. A trip to Lumen Field in mid-December will prove to be more challenging, but I’m confident calling that a victory as well.

San Francisco hosts the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 4, a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game. L.A. is a road favorite and will be favored again at home when the teams play again four weeks later. That said, the 49ers have taken the last six regular-season games against the Rams, though Los Angeles got the best of them in the postseason. Let's call that a split.

That’s a 3-1 start with two games against the Cardinals remaining. San Francisco is favored in both, which will be played Week 11 on a neutral field in Mexico and Week 18 in the Bay. This setup benefits the 49ers, who don’t have to travel to Arizona a year after they were swept by Kliff Kingsbury’s squad. The Cardinals have fared well against San Francisco in recent years, though, so let's make that a split as well to bring the record to 4-2 record against the NFC West.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The rest of the NFC schedule is a mixed bag. It begins with a road trip to Chicago in Week 1 and consecutive cross-country trips to play the Panthers and Falcons in Weeks 5 and 6. As one would expect, the 49ers are favored in all three.

The other three NFC opponents present more of a challenge, though they’re all at home. New Orleans visits in late November and the Buccaneers visit two weeks later. The conference slate ends with a Week 16 contest against the Commanders.

San Francisco is favored in five of its six games against NFC opponents—the Tampa Bay game is a pick’em. It’s fair to call this a 5-1 stretch (losing to Tampa Bay) although the 49ers could also slip up against the Saints. That brings their record to 9-3.

All that’s left now is five games against the AFC—all versus playoff hopefuls. The 49ers are underdogs on the road against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, the Chiefs are road favorites Week 7 and the Raiders have a slight edge Week 17 in Las Vegas. The Week 10 bout with the Chargers is another pick ’em.

Even given how difficult this stretch is, the 49ers are not getting swept by the entire AFC West. One, maybe two wins against the Raiders and the Chargers is within reason. 

Add in a visit from the Dolphins, another projected victory, and San Francisco is firmly north of 9.5 wins for the second season in a row.

An 11-6/12-5 mark could even challenge the Rams for the best record in the division and one of the better NFC marks. But for our purposes, it puts the 49ers comfortably above their projected win total, which explains the juiced odds on that side.

Having some breathing room for an unexpected loss (or two) makes me even more confident in this pick. And San Francisco is fully capable of taking a game off some of the tougher teams on it schedule.

BET: Over 9.5 wins (-152)

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