Los Angeles Chargers Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Chargers are tied with the Chiefs and Broncos for the highest AFC West over/under wins total at SI Sportsbook with 10.5 wins.

The offseason wouldn’t be complete without the annual, unadulterated Chargers hype train.

Expectations for Los Angeles in Justin Herbert’s third season under center and Brandon Staley’s second year with the headset are reaching a breaking point. The Chargers are tied for the sixth-best Super Bowl odds at SI Sportsbook and have the second-best odds—behind the Chiefs—to win the cutthroat AFC West.

Oh, and Herbert is getting serious MVP buzz—he’s among the top five contenders with the likes of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | DEN | Division Odds

It seems almost preordained that the Chargers will be playing in the Super Bowl in Arizona in February after they pillaged defenses to improve their own and again bolstered their offensive line via the draft. But first they have to return to the playoffs, something the franchise has done just twice in the last decade and not since 2018.

Seems easy enough for a franchise that has historically great luck, right? Well…

As long as the season doesn’t come down to a Week 18 win or tie but just-don’t-lose situation again, the playoff drought should come to a merciful end.

But just how good can this team be?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

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Los Angeles Chargers Over/Under: 10.5 - O (+100) | U (-143)

2021-22 record: 9-8; Third AFC West; Missed playoffs
AFC West future odds: +240 (Second)
AFC future odds: +800 (Tied-third)
Super Bowl future odds: +1400 (Tied-sixth)

Key additions: LB Khalil Mack, CB J.C. Jackson, TE Gerald Everett, OL Zion Johnson
Key losses: DL Justin Jones, TE Jared Cook, OT Bryan Bulaga

Charger Report offseason grade: A

“The Chargers acquired Khalil Mack in early March, and they kept their foot on the throttle throughout free agency, landing the top defender on the market in Jackson. The Chargers added a multitude of defenders that enter the Chargers’ building with previous experience of playing in coach Brandon Staley’s scheme, which should offer a rather smooth transition. They also filled a hole at right guard by selecting Zion Johnson, arguably the best interior offensive lineman in the draft, with their first-round pick. It’s been about as good of an offseason on paper as the Chargers could have envisioned when things got rolling four months ago.” — Nick Cothrel

SCHEDULE

Week 1: Raiders
Week 2: At Chiefs
Week 3: Jaguars
Week 4: At Texans
Week 5: At Browns
Week 6: Broncos
Week 7: Seahawks
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: At Falcons
Week 10: At 49ers
Week 11: Chiefs
Week 12: At Cardinals
Week 13: At Raiders
Week 14: Dolphins
Week 15: Titans
Week 16: At Colts
Week 17: Rams
Week 18: At Broncos

Herbert authored a top-five offense in 2021. Los Angeles ranked fifth in scoring and fourth in yards with Herbert slinging the ball around to receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. The front office kept that group together in the offseason by retaining Williams and it added insurance behind Ekeler in the form of rookie fourth-round draft pick Isaiah Spiller.

The Chargers should repeat as a top-five offense, which will always keep them in games. Deficiencies on the other side of the ball held them back last year.

L.A.’s defense tied for 29th in scoring and ranked 23rd in yards allowed. The only two teams that gave up more points than the Chargers were the Lions and Jets. This unit infamously gave up 41 points to the Texans in a crucial Week 16 loss and allowed Rex Burkhead to romp for 149 yards and two scores. That’s why the additions at all three levels of the defense are so crucial to this team’s hopes for 2022.

Adding cornerback J.C. Jackson, linebacker Khalil Mack and defensive end Sebastian Joseph-Day to a defense that already had top-end talent with Joey Bosa and Derwin James should vault this unit up a few tiers. Even league-average play would go a long way, and the front office did not assemble this defense with average expectations.

Stringing together enough wins to make playoffs from the AFC West will be even more difficult than usual given all the talent flocked to the division in the offseason. The Chargers’ win total has gone up each of the past two seasons from five to seven to nine. Can sustained improvement vault them to 11 victories this year?

Let’s start with the toughest division in the NFL. The Chargers open the season at home against the Raiders, who ended their season in overtime in Week 18. Call that a revenge win for the Bolts. A split seems reasonable against Las Vegas with Josh McDaniels’ squad getting the win when these teams play again in Week 13.

A primetime date with the Chiefs awaits in Week 2. Kansas City is favored by a field goal at Arrowhead Stadium and L.A. is a slight favorite at home in Week 11.

The Chargers were the only team in the division to defeat the Chiefs a season ago, and they’ve split the series since Herbert was drafted in 2020. I expect that to continue, which brings Los Angeles to 2-2.

Los Angeles hosts the new-look Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and then travel to Colorado for the season finale, a game that could have massive playoff implications. Mark that down as one more win and one additional loss for L.A., which has gone 3-3 against the AFC West each of the past two seasons.

The rest of the Chargers’ AFC schedule is rather forgiving, which is only fair considering they play both the AFC and NFC West. They get the Jaguars, Titans and Dolphins at home and visit the Texans, Browns and Colts. The toughest draw is the trip to Indianapolis, but all six games are winnable.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Conservatively, this is a 4-2 stretch for the Bolts with easy wins against Jacksonville and Houston. Tennessee and Miami present tougher challenges and the Chargers will likely drop one of the two. Then there’s the Colts game, which we’ll call a loss, and a trip to Cleveland, which quarterback Deshaun Watson would not be available for according to the current terms of his six-game suspension.

That brings Los Angeles to 7-5 with its NFC slate remaining.

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The first two games against the Seahawks at home and Falcons on the road are clear victories. A Week 10 road trip to San Francisco in primetime is a tough call and the line is currently a pick ’em. We’ll call that a win for the 49ers, though.

A trip to face the Cardinals is another tally in the win column (L.A. is favored). And then there’s a Week 17 date with the crosstown rival Rams. It’s a home game, but the crowd at SoFi will favor the Super Bowl champs, who I’ll give the edge to in this one.

A 3-2 mark against the NFC brings the Chargers’ record to 10-7. It’s a one-win improvement, but not enough victories to cash the over on their projected total. If one more game breaks right for them then they’ll hit their mark, but Los Angeles could just as easily drop both games to any of its division foes.

Ten wins feels right for this team. I’m in on the Chargers hype and postseason hopes, but this schedule is a gauntlet.

BET: Under 10.5 wins (-143)

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