Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Raiders added Davante Adams but they have the lowest AFC West wins total projection at SI Sportsbook with just 8.5 wins.

The Raiders, led by quarterback Derek Carr, willed their way to 10 wins and a playoff berth in 2021 despite losing head coach Jon Gruden and No. 1 receiver Henry Ruggs III during the season and star tight end Darren Waller missing six games.

Yet, SI Sportsbook has set their win total at a modest 8.5 wins for 2022.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LAC | DEN | Division Odds

With new head coach Josh McDaniels at the helm and trade acquisition Davante Adams, arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver, joining talented receiving weapons in Waller and Hunter Renfrow, the Raiders look ready to compete in the AFC West.

But is a pathway to wins through the AFC too big of a challenge for the new-look Raiders? Let’s break it down.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under: 8.5 - O (-125) | U (-110)

2021-2022 record: 10-7; Second AFC West; 5-seed; Lost wild card round at Bengals
AFC West future odds: +650 (Fourth)
AFC future odds: +2000 (Tied-11th)
Super Bowl future odds: +3300 (Tied-17th)

Key additions: WR Davante Adams, DE Chandler Jones, RB Zamir White
Key losses: WR Bryan Edwards, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DL Carl Nassib

Raider Maven Offseason Grade: A

The Raiders added the best offensive and defensive free agents to a 10-win team that was the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. The Raiders upgraded their coaching staff with Josh McDaniels and the addition of GM Dave Ziegler has the Raiders working in the same direction. With the key additions of several free agents, the Raiders are poised to make a legitimate run at the AFC West title.—Hondo Carpenter

SCHEDULE

Week 1: At Chargers
Week 2: Cardinals
Week 3: At Titans
Week 4: Broncos
Week 5: At Chiefs
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: Texans
Week 8: At Saints
Week 9: At Jaguars
Week 10: Colts
Week 11: At Broncos
Week 12: At Seahawks
Week 13: Chargers
Week 14: At Rams
Week 15: Patriots
Week 16: At Steelers
Week 17: 49ers
Week 18: Chiefs

Carr threw for the fifth-most yards (4,804) in the league last year despite posting a 3.7% passing touchdown rate and tossing 23 passing touchdowns. That production was good enough for a second-place finish in the AFC West and a postseason berth.

Well, there’s now a new red zone target in town in Adams. Adams tallied 29 touchdowns in 30 games across the last two seasons in Green Bay. His 69 receiving touchdowns across the last six seasons are the most in the league and are nine more scores than next in line, Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans.

Add to that the potential of a full season of Waller and another strong season from last year’s late-season star in Renfroe, and it looks like the only way to go is up.

A good running back committee including Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake and Zamir White should help round out the offensive threat.

After 18 years with the Patriots, McDaniels is used to winning. My instinct is to take the over, but let’s take a closer look and go matchup by matchup.

Beginning with the AFC West, the Raiders will face the Chargers, Chiefs and Broncos each twice. Even though the Raiders have the worst odds to win the division at +650, I’m taking them to split each series.

Last year, they lost both to the Chiefs but without Tyreek Hill the Chiefs look less threatening. They split with the Chargers, including a dramatic Week 18 win that secured a playoff spot, and they can split again. They took both from Denver last year, but I think new quarterback Russell Wilson wins at least one this year.

My total is now at three wins.

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Moving on to the rest of the AFC, the Raiders will host the Texans, Colts and Patriots. They should beat the Texans easily. The Patriots game is McDaniels vs. Bill Belichick and will be must-see TV, though I won’t count it in the win total. The Raiders did defeat the Colts last year, so I will be generous and give them that one. I’m now at five.

The Repository / Scott Heckel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rounding out the AFC, the Raiders travel to face the Titans, Steelers and Jaguars. They should beat the Steelers, who haven’t yet named a starting quarterback, and also triumph over the Jaguars. I am now at seven wins.

Moving over to the NFC, the Raiders host the Cardinals and the 49ers. I’m not a big believer in Trey Lance, though I do believe in Kyle Shanahan. Kyler Murray will be playing too well early in the season in an attempt to prove he doesn’t spend too much time with Call of Duty. My total is still at seven wins.

Finally, the Raiders travel to play the Saints, Seahawks and Rams. I will give them the Seahawks and Saints games and my total is nine wins.

You pay a bit of a premium for the over here, and many of these wins could easily go the other way. There is certainly a wide range of possible outcomes in the AFC West.

When I look at this bet, I do think the Raiders hit the over but the even more tempting odds are their +650 odds to win the division.

Adams + Carr + McDaniels. Let’s pull this ticket!

BET: Over 8.5 wins (-125)
BONUS BET: AFC West winner (+650 )

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