2022 NFL Regular-Season Passing Touchdown Leader Betting Breakdown

Tom Brady is the favorite at SI Sportsbook to repeat as the passing touchdown leader, but the next generation of quarterbacks pose a threat to the veteran.

Tom Brady led the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2021 for the fifth time in his Hall of Fame career.

The Buccaneers' quarterback continues to build on his standing as the all-time leader in touchdowns tossed as he enters his age 45 season. But for all of Brady’s accomplishments, he’s never led the league in passing touchdowns in back-to-back years. In fact, the last passer to do so was Drew Brees (2011, 2012).

Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Tom Brady | Justin Herbert | Josh Allen

That could change this season with Brady heading into 2022 with an even better, deeper receiving corps around him in Tampa Bay. Brady (+500) is the clear favorite at SI Sportsbook to lead the league for the sixth time in passing touchdowns thrown, but the next generation of signal-callers could threaten his title defense.

Justin Herbert (+600) and Josh Allen (+650) have the second- and third-best odds, respectively, to unseat Brady. Patrick Mahomes (+700), who did so in 2018, and reigning Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford (+700), who was two touchdowns short of tying Brady a season ago, round out the top five contenders.

Even beyond the first tier, there’s a deep list of capable quarterbacks who could potentially lead the league.

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2022 Regular-Season Passing Touchdown Leader

Tom Brady +500
Justin Herbert +600
Josh Allen +650
Patrick Mahomes +700
Matthew Stafford +700
Joe Burrow +1000
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Dak Prescott +1200
Russell Wilson +1400
Derek Carr +1600
Kirk Cousins +1800
Deshaun Watson +2500
Matt Ryan +2800
Lamar Jackson +3300
Kyler Murray +3300
Tua Tagovailoa +4000
Jameis Winston +4000
Ryan Tannehill +4000
Jared Goff +5000
Trevor Lawrence +5000
Baker Mayfield +5000
Mac Jones +5000
Jalen Hurts +5000
Carson Wentz +5000
Mitch Trubisky +6600

Contenders: Brady Favored to Repeat as Touchdown Leader

Tom Brady (+500)

The case for Brady repeating is simple: His 719 attempts were the most in the NFL (and his career) by a wide margin, and he might flirt with that mark again while throwing to one of the best groups of pass-catchers in the league.

Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown were replaced with Russell Gage, Julio Jones and Kyle Rudolph, welcome additions to a skill position group that already included Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette. Brady posted two of his three highest passing touchdown totals with that group since he arrived in Tampa Bay (40 in 2020, 43 in 2021), largely thanks to the Bucs’ pass-happy approach.

The biggest threats to Brady repeating are injuries to his receivers and instability along the offensive line. Still, he should be able to eclipse the 40-touchdown mark once again, a number that would be tops in the league five of the last eight seasons.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Herbert (+600)

Herbert is in good company already in his second season in the NFL. He finished second in attempts (672) and third in touchdowns (38) last season, and has the added advantage of coaching stability in Year 3.

The former Oregon star benefits from a diverse group of playmakers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, all of whom dominate different parts of the field. Los Angeles also replaced Jared Cook with the younger Gerald Everett at tight end and its depth at receiver extends to Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton.

Herbert is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks and if it weren’t for a slow start to the season (two touchdowns, three interceptions in his first two games) he might have pulled a Mahomes and led the league in touchdowns as a sophomore.

Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports

Josh Allen (+700)

If Allen can keep up the torrid pace he was on in the postseason, he’s a lock to lead the league in touchdowns. Okay, his playoff numbers were unsustainable, but he’ll be right in the thick of the race once again even if he slows down.

The SI Sportsbook MVP favorite tossed nine scores across two playoff games after throwing 36 in the regular season to finish seventh. Two games without passing touchdowns helped keep Allen out of the top-five finishers, but it wasn’t for lack of trying—the Bills’ quarterback threw the fourth-most passes in the league.

The emergence of Gabriel Davis, continued excellence from Stefon Diggs and the additions of O.J. Howard and Jamison Crowder and rookies Khalil Shakir and James Cook give the Bills a fearsome group of skill-position players, but Allen is the true engine in Buffalo. The Bills were the third-highest scoring offense in football a season ago—making the jump to No. 1 will require another leap from Allen in his fifth season.

Colin E. Braley/AP

Patrick Mahomes (+700)

Mahomes’ “down” year saw him tie for the fourth-most touchdowns (37) and attempt the third-most passes (658) in the NFL. His mid-season slump, career-high interception total and precipitous drop in downfield passing have made Mahomes something of a value across betting markets heading into his sixth season.

The new names in Kansas City brought in to replace Tyreek Hill don’t add up to his All-Pro talent and world-beating speed, though they could make for a more complete receiving corps. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore join a group of pass-catchers that includes the ever-reliable Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman, who’s coming off his best season as a pro.

Despite the many dart throws in the backfield, this is a pass-first team led by perhaps the best passer in the sport.

Mahomes has yet to return to his 2018 levels of production, but he’s still finished among the top five in touchdowns in each of his three full seasons as a starter. This is his chance to reassert himself not only in the AFC West, where Herbert is making a name for himself and Russell Wilson just arrived, but also the NFL at large.

Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports

Sleepers: Wilson Could See a Bump in Production in Denver

Russell Wilson (+1400)

Wilson played through injury behind one of the worst offensive lines in football in his final season with the Seahawks. His 25-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio was respectable given the circumstances, but it fell short of his usual output. Wilson tossed a career-best 40 scores in 2020 and threw a league-high 34 in 2017.

The situation he’s walking into in Denver is markedly better than what he had in Seattle. His new coach Nathaniel Hackett helped guide Aaron Rodgers to back-to-back MVP seasons, the offensive line will keep him off his back and the pass-catching group is on par—if not better—than he had with the Seahaws.

Wilson has Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Albert Okwuegbunam and a pair of capable running backs in Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to throw the ball to. Finally, we will get to see what Wilson’s cooking is about after all these years.

Rodgers was not a high-volume passer with Hackett in Green Bay, but his touchdown percentage was off the charts. If Wilson’s touchdown frequency rises and he airs the ball out for, say, 600 times for the first time in his career, he’s fully capable of being tops in the league in passing touchdowns.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN

Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports

Kirk Cousins (+1800)

The Vikings are no longer a run-first offense. That’s good news for Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, Irv Smith Jr. and yes, Kirk Cousins too. With former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell coming from Los Angeles to coach Minnesota, Cousins could take a leap similar to what Stafford did in 2021.

Cousins tossed a career-best 35 touchdown passes in 2020 and followed with 33 last season. After matching his career-high with 606 pass attempts in 2018, his first season in Minnesota, Cousins’ attempts fell dramatically to 444 attempts in 2019.

His attempts have since risen each of the last two seasons, and with O’Connell calling the shots Cousins should be back in the range of 600 attempts with many of those targets being funneled to one the league’s premier receivers in Jefferson.

Minnesota was middle-of-the-road in terms of rushing and passing frequency in 2021. Once that scale tips further toward the pass, more scores through the air will follow.

Top Bet: Justin Herbert (+600)
Value Bet: Russell Wilson (+1400)

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