Winners Club: Projecting How the First Round of Next Week’s NFL Draft Will Unfold

Plus, Jalen Hurts’s MVP odds after new deal, NBA title odds, playoff schedule and more.

The first round of the NFL draft is now just eight days away.

Bryce Young has canceled his remaining pre-draft visits amid intense speculation (and rapidly shortening betting odds) that he will hear his name called first in Kansas City, but there’s still plenty we don’t know about how the following 30 picks will unfold next Thursday.

In today’s Winners Club you’ll find:

• SI’s latest NFL mock draft
• Where NFL No. 1 pick betting odds stand
• Why Jalen Hurts to win MVP is a value bet
• NBA championship updated odds
• Important MLB betting trends

QBs Only in Top Four of Latest NFL Mock Draft

Earlier this week, Michael Fabiano took a stab at projecting the first round of the NFL draft and some of his picks — plus one blockbuster trade — might come as a surprise.

One that won’t: Bryce Young going No. 1 to the Panthers. He’s now a prohibitive favorite to go first, just weeks after C.J. Stroud had the best odds to wind up in Carolina.

For all the guesswork and projection about the first-year quarterbacks and their destinations in the lead-up to the draft, fantasy managers should temper their expectations as far as production in Year 1.

Historically, rookie quarterbacks haven’t been great for fantasy football in their first season.

“Since 2000, first-round rookie quarterbacks have accounted for a mere five top-10 finishes and just eight top-20 finishes,” Fabiano writes. “Over the last three years, only Herbert and Kyler Murray have finished better than 18th and just three have finished higher than 23rd at the position. That’s not an attractive trend for the incoming class.”

Keep that in mind this draft season when it comes to young signal-callers. But as for first-year running backs, there’s a bit better track record of immediate success. That goes for this year’s top prospect, Bijan Robinson, and Jennnifer Piacenti believes if he ends up in the Motor City — the Lions own the sixth pick from the Rams and their own No. 18 selection — he’s bound to put up RB1 numbers.

Allow her to make the case.

And the big news of the week was quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles agreeing to a five-year contract extension worth $255 million, which includes $179.3 million guaranteed. The MVP runner-up also reportedly had surgery on his ankle this offseason but it was described as a minor procedure to remove “hardware” from his right ankle.

Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

If we look ahead to NFL futures odds, Hurts is available +1200 to win MVP behind Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

That’s good value, Piacenti argues. Coming off the best year of his career, there’s reason to believe he could capture the hardware this season.

Celtics Move Past Bucks as New NBA Finals Favorites

The NBA playoffs are only a few days in but plenty has happened already to shift the betting markets.

Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a back contusion in a Game 1 loss to the Heat and he is doubtful for Game 2. In that same series, Tyler Herro broke his hand, which will leave him sidelined for weeks. Ja Morant avoided a fracture in his hand and is a game-time decision for Game 2 against the Lakers. And perhaps the biggest NBA news of the week came down late Tuesday evening: Draymond Green was suspended for Game 3 against the Kings after he stomped on Domantas Sabonis.

Got all that? Good. Here’s where the championship betting markets stand ahead of Wednesday’s games:

Celtics +275
Bucks +320
Suns +500
76ers +600
Lakers +800
Nuggets +900
Warriors +1200
Kings +2200
Knicks +4000
Cavaliers +4000
Clippers +4000
Grizzlies +4000
Heat +6600
Timberwolves +20000
Hawks +25000
Nets +50000

Boston, Philadelphia, Sacramento and the Lakers all enjoyed noticeable improvements in their odds while the odds for Golden State and Memphis lengthened.

Charles Krupa/AP

Wednesday, April 19

7:30 p.m. ET (TNT): Lakers (-1) vs. Grizzlies | Total: 226.5 — Los Angeles leads series, 1-0

9 p.m. ET (NBA TV): Heat vs. Bucks (-7.5) | Total: 218.5 — Miami leads series, 1–0

10 p.m. ET (TNT): Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (-8.5) | Total: 222.5 — Denver leads series, 1–0

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Thursday, April 20

7:30 p.m. ET (TNT): 76ers (-4.5) vs. Nets | Total: 209.5 — Philadelphia leads series, 2–0

10 p.m. ET (TNT): Kings vs. Warriors (-5.5) | Total: 238.5 — Sacramento leads series, 2–0

10:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV): Suns (-2.5) vs. Clippers | Total: 227.5 — Series tied, 1–1

In Other News

Overs, Homers Highlight MLB Betting Trends: Scoring is up around the league so far this season and so are home runs. Piancenti touched on four trends that bettors can utilize to their advantage when betting on baseball.

Top College Basketball Offseason Storylines: Where does Alabama go from here? And what about Purdue after its loss to a No. 16 seed? And where will Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson end up after he entered the transfer portal? Pat Forde examines these topics and more.

Barring a Pay Cut, Bengals May Cut Joe Mixon: Cincinnati’s running back has two years left on his deal but the front office is reportedly negotiating a pay cut that could potentially end with his release. His primary backup, Samaje Perine, signed with the Broncos earlier this offseason.

49ers Fielding Trade Calls for QB Trey Lance: San Francisco traded up to the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL draft to select Lance, but he’s only appeared in eight games across two seasons. He suffered a season-ending ankle injury early in 2022 and Jimmy Garoppolo and then Brock Purdy, the likely future starter, took over under center.

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