Cincinnati Bearcats Keys To The Game: Bryant Bulldogs

Cincinnati destroyed Bryant 97-71 last season.

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati men's basketball has another home tune-up game in store after the disappointing loss to Xavier on Saturday. The 6-5 Bryant Bulldogs come to town after taking it on the chin from Cincinnati last season 97-71.

Wes Miller's crew is a 93.3% favorite on ESPN's Matchup Predictor as they try to bounce back from another big-game loss over the past three seasons. UC now sits 30th nationally on KenPom, while Bryant is 216th.

They have already pulled a big upset this season, taking out ranked Florida Atlantic on the road 61-52. Let's get to the key factors when either team has the ball.

When UC Has The Ball

Cincinnati's offensive weapons need to be disciplined in shot selection on Tuesday night against one of the better shooting defenses in the country (37.8% FG allowed, 16th nationally). The small, yet feisty Bryant rotation has played on time and in sync on the defensive end all season (102nd nationally in defensive efficiency).

Senior guard Earl Timberlake (12.2 points, 8.8 rebounds) is the lead factor for that start as he holds a whopping plus-23.7 net rating through 11 games this season. He and forward Daniel Rivera (11.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) have been roaming mavens as both average over one block and steal per game.

They don't stick out immediately at 6-foot-6 a piece but they can cover ground quickly and wipe out strong passing lanes for a defense giving up just 13 assists per game. Cincinnati has to act quickly and on time offensively to outpace a fast Bryant team on both ends. 

Expect some fastbreak shows in this one as Cincinnati enters 131st in pace to Bryant's 24th mark nationwide.

Still, this is a small lineup that's prone to fouling, which is how they've lost most of their games (20.5 free throws allowed, 243rd nationally). Cincinnati could have issues in this game if it doesn't assert physicality. Bryant is allowing opponents to shoot just 31.1% from outside (121st nationally).

When Bryant Has The Ball

The Bulldogs are ready to run, run, run to make up for that smaller lineup with no rotation player taller than 6-foot-7. It's worked out all right in the counting stats, but they sit 306th nationally in adjusted offense on 63.4 shots per game (48th nationally).

This team lives and dies by the three (27.7 shots per game, 32nd nationally) as perimeter defenders like John Newman III and others need to be on point to keep them from getting hot. Keep them under 10 makes from outside and it should be an easy UC win. Much more than that and things could get tight.

Lead scorer Sherif Gross-Bullock (16.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists) embodies that mentality as he sits 16th nationally with 8.5 outside attempts per game (36.2% from deep). If he gets hot then the entire offense flows more smoothly. Timberlake, Rivera, Gross-Bullock, and Rafael Pinzon (11.4 points, 2.7 rebounds) all average over 10 points per game in a pretty balanced offense.

After Gross-Bullock, Timberlake is a player Cincinnati will have to handle as he enters with that astounding net rating and a whopping 60.3% true shooting rate. He and Gross-Bullock are the only Bulldogs over 50% in that mark. Slow them down and Bryant just hasn't shown to be efficient enough elsewhere to scare defenses. The coaching staff is well aware of this as they're both averaging over 32.2 minutes per game this season.

Putting them in foul trouble early and often with that mentioned physicality is the bellwether to watch in this one.

Prediction: Cincinnati 89-75

Cincinnati is 8-of-42 from deep on the road this season, but 64-of-161 (39.7%) at home and there's no reason for me to think they won't bounce back shooting the ball on Tuesday.

They might have some trouble getting to the line as the nation's 242nd-ranked team in FT attempts, but expect Cincinnati to slow down those clear top two options and pull away late in a high-possession offensive showing.

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