Game Preview: East Carolina Travels to Clifton For 'Nipp at Night'

Cincinnati has won four-straight games against ECU.

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, 4-1) play their first home night game of the season against East Carolina (6-3, 3-2) on Friday with their AAC Title lives on the line.

The Pirates have won four of their past five games—but enter this game as five-point road underdogs with 13 days rest. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Cincinnati a 67% chance to win. ECU ranks 38th in Brian Fremau's net yards per play metric, while UC sits at No. 20.

ECU got destroyed in the past two trips to Nippert, but it could be much closer this time around.

"I think that the thing that you are seeing now is they are winning those games at the end," UC head coach Luke Fickell said about ECU. "From the two overtime wins, momentum is a big deal, and they have done a really good job. They have played really well, especially at the end of the season for the last few years. We know what we know we are going to get a great shot and what we have seen on film and something even a little bit better. Regardless of if they are coming off a bye week or not, this has been a unique one for both sides for a few years now.”

Here's the preview as UC goes for its fifth-straight win over ECU.

*All EPA stats are via CFBGraphs.com, and line stats are via Football Outsiders.

Handling Holton

© James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

ECU's sixth-year QB, Holton Ahlers, is no stranger to UC fans, but this 2022 version certainly is. Ahlers has completed 223 of his 319 pass attempts (70%) for 2,632 yards (12th nationally), 18 touchdowns (t-27th), and five interceptions this season. All of it is good, for the 27th-best passing efficiency in the country (154.7) and the 35th-ranked passing offense by EPA.

Ahlers is on pace to shatter his career-highs in yards, passer rating, TDs, and completion rate. He's a completely different animal in Year 6.

“I don't know that makes it any different," Fickell said about facing Ahlers so much in past seasons. "I mean, for me and for some of the coaches you have maybe a decent grasp, but it's not what we know, it is what those guys in those seats can know and understand. We have a lot of guys that haven't played on both sides of the ball, but short weeks are always different and difficult for us because we get in such a routine that you got to change some things up, so it is what it is, but we got to move forward.” 

The balanced passing attack (six players with 16-plus catches) is headed up by the nation's ninth-leading receiver, Isaiah Winstead (64 catches, 871 yards, three scores). The 6-foot-4 dunker can make big plays all over the field and has been a great snap-to-snap option this season.

The team's top playmaker is opposite him in C.J. Johnson (44 catches, 702 yards, team-high eight TDs, and 16 yards per catch). Slowing those two down is imperative if UC wants to make ECU one-dimensional. The Pirates are 5-0 this season when Winstead and Johnson both log four-plus catches.

Containing Keaton

© James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

The East Carolina passing offense is great, but the rushing attack is even better. Sophomore running back Keaton Mitchell is leading the AAC with 863 rushing yards (20th nationally) on a whopping 7.1 yards per carry (second nationally).

At 5-foot-9, 184 pounds, Mitchell eats up yards and squeezes every bit of juice out of each carry. ECU has needed that determination. Their offensive line is surprisingly bad for how well Mitchell's produced (111th in avg. line yards, 128th in stuff rate). Yet, Mitchell ranks second nationally with 35 10-plus yard runs.

"Yeah, he's a difference maker," Fickell said about Mitchell. "That’s why he’s leading the league in rushing. And I think the uniqueness is, you can see the big, long runs where he can circle the defense because of his electric speed and quickness, to be honest with you. But there are plenty of shots where he hits it right up in the middle. He went a long one against BYU right to the A gap. They've got a really good one-two punch with him, meaning that he can take it outside and he can make things happen, but he's not afraid to stick it up in the middle."

Mitchell's burst in the open field is largely unmatched, having hit a top speed of 22.6 MPH this season. UC improved their EPA/rush allowed heavily following the Navy performance but still rank 71st nationally.

"I think they’ll get a little bit more onus on him," Fickell continued. "I think for them it might even be a better thing to get the hot hand going a little bit more and give him some more opportunities. So, everybody would say, hey, they're the team that swings the football—they’re also a team with the leading rusher in the league. That's what makes them who they are offensively and what makes them so good.” 

High-level man coverage on the outside is crucial in this game. Cincinnati can then commit more men to the shaky blocking unit and keep Mitchell from breaking tackles and bursting into the second level like he has all season.

Cincy's front was the skeleton key against Navy, and it'll take that same role against this ECU run game.

Nipp At Night Boost

© Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK

There's something about "Nipp at Night" games that brings out the best in UC and its fans. 

Cincinnati went 1-3 in home night games during Fickell's first season. Since then, UC is 8-0 in those spots, including a 55-17 win over ECU in 2020.

"All of a sudden, Sunday's now Monday, Monday is really the Tuesday, everything just becomes accelerated, and you don't want to shortchange anything," Fickell said about Friday games. "You don't want to not do things the way you've done them the entire year. So that just means that you got to have a really, really good plan. We have been fortunate enough at least to have a few of these Friday night games that we've had a plan in place that gives us a chance that we're not scrambling around, and we've been pretty consistent in how we’ve prepared. It just it takes a lot of maturity from the players, and I think even the coaches as well.”

Friday is a complete blackout, with the team donning a full black uniform that WR Tyler Scott is excited to show off to the home crowd.

"I've been in my share of Nipp at Nights since I've been here, and it's pretty electric," Scott said after the 20-10 win over Navy. "The biggest thing is when you get in situations like that, you kind of have aha moments, where you just kind of sit back and you're like, 'Wow, I'm really doing this.' You grow up seeing crowds and you envision playing in front of crowds and that type of energy. Now that you have those opportunities, you're just grateful to see those things and to be able to be a part of them."

All of UC's season-long opportunities are still out there—as long as they make another night-game statement as they have so often over the past four years.

Catch the game at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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