UC's AAC Title Path Following 25-21 Loss to UCF

Hope is not lost following the Bearcats first regular-season conference loss this decade.

© Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

CINCINNATI — Flashback a year, and a conference loss would've felt like the end of the world for UC football. That team held the weight of the world on its shoulders and came through in every expected moment.

The 2022 squad isn't as battle-hardened or buttoned-up at 6-2 (3-1 in AAC), but they still have a top goal on the table. The Group of Five is weaker in 2022 than most years, as is the AAC, which has just Tulane standing undefeated in conference play. 

Cincinnati controls its path to playing in the 2022 AAC Championship Game. The tiebreakers are clear.

"If there's a two-team tie for first place, both teams will play in the Championship Game. If two teams are tied for second place, the head-to-head result would break the tie. If the two teams did not play, the team with higher CFP Rankings will be in the Championship game. If a team or teams lose in the final weekend of the Conference play to create a tie, and there are subsequent CFP rankings, those subsequent rankings break ties."

The Green Wave and UCF have full control of the conference right now. 

Tulane will host the AAC title game if they win out, or UCF will host by winning out (play Tulane on Nov. 12). That may seem like a two-team race, but UC has that final contest against Tulane looming.

The Nov. 25 matchup will be a pseudo-AAC semifinal matchup if both squads don't lose again. Cincinnati needs one more loss by both UCF and Tulane to have a chance at hosting the Championship, but the path to playing in it still sits in the Bearcats' hands.

They cannot lose in the final week and still get in unless UCF/Tulane drop two-plus games in the last month. That leaves the H2H tiebreaker over Tulane as the most likely option.

UC has three of its final four games at home, where they own the nation's second-longest winning streak and a road date against Temple that ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Cincinnati winning 94% of the time.

One major win streak just ended, and the other can't fall if UC wants to exit the AAC as three-time reigning champs.

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