SP+ predicts Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina State score

Will Georgia Tech get their first win of the season on Saturday?

Jackson Caudell | Sep 6, 2023

SP+ predicts Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina State score /

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech is gearing up for their second game of the season on Saturday against South Carolina State and as you can imagine, the Yellow Jackets are going to be big favorites against their FCS foe this week.

While there is not an official line at any sports book this week, ESPN's Bill Connelly and his SP+ system have the Yellow Jackets winning 44-7 and having Georgia Tech favored by 37 points going into the game with a 98% chance of emerging victorious on Saturday.

This would be an optimal result for Georgia Tech. They should overwhelm an FCS opponent like South Carolina State and a 37-point win would be great for a team trying to bounce back and improve after a loss.

WEEK 2 SP+ PICKS

Bama 34, Texas 21
ND 31, NC St 17
Rebs 33, Angry Wave 26
A&M 24, Miami 22
Oregon 38, Tex Tech 26
Wisconsin 28, Wazzu 23

We're still very much in "ignore Colorado projections" mode. And maybe "ignore point totals" too. pic.twitter.com/A5osUWqkjw
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 5, 2023

Last week, SP+ had Georgia Tech losing by 16 to Louisville, but the Yellow Jackets nearly won the game and only lost by five.

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."

Connelly released his updated SP+ rankings yesterday and Georgia Tech fell from 75th to 80th. Connelly ranked the Yellow Jackets offense as the 75th best in the country and the defense as the 79th.

Here are the rankings for the rest of Georgia Tech's 2023 opponents, except for South Carolina State.

2. Georgia (7th offense, 1st defense)

14. Ole Miss (10th offense, 24th defense)

21. North Carolina (15th offense, 39th defense)

23. Clemson (37th offense, 16th defense)

24. Miami (40th offense, 13th defense)

37. Wake Forest (34th offense, 56th defense)

40. Syracuse (50th offense, 32nd defense)

95. Boston College (106th offense, 73rd defense)

99. Virginia (127th offense, 58th defense)

126. Bowling Green (104th offense and 129th defense)

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