SP+ predicts Miami vs Georgia Tech score

Will Georgia Tech be able to hang with Miami on Saturday?

Jackson Caudell | Oct 3, 2023

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech is hoping to bounce back from their loss to Bowling Green on Saturday, but they will have to do so against arguably the best team that they have faced all season.

Miami comes into this game ranked No. 17 in the country and fresh off of their bye week. This is going to be the first conference game of the season for the Hurricanes and perhaps their toughest test since defeating Texas A&M back in week two of the season. Miami has been dominant in nearly every game they have played and will present a huge challenge for the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech is coming into this game as a three-touchdown underdog and has a lot of problems going on at the moment, especially on the defensive side of the ball. After the game on Saturday, head coach Brent Key said that he was confident in his defensive staff, but opted to make changes the next day. Linebackers coach Kevin Sherrer will take over as the defensive coordinator while Andrew Thacker, defensive coordinator since 2019, will be the safeties coach.

The point spread indicates that Miami will win big and they are not the only ones.

WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS

Bama 25.2, A&M 24.7!
Texas 29, OU 27!
Mizzou 30, LSU 29! 🐯
ND 29, Louisville 22
UCLA 29, Wazzu 25
Bucks 34, Terps 18
FSU 35, Hokies 16
UGA 30, UK 18
Rebs 35, Hogs 25
Michigan 33, Minnesota 15

I mean, I'm all for all the biggest games being 1- or 2-pointers... pic.twitter.com/hoXqr1CPtR
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 1, 2023

ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ does not think this game will be close and has Miami winning by a score of 39-15 and a margin of 24 points. Coming into this game, Miami is ranked 12th in SP+, with the 17th-ranked offense and the 13th-ranked defense. Georgia Tech is ranked 77th, with the 65th overall offense and 86th-ranked defense.

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."