Top Defenses Georgia Tech Faces In 2023 Per SP+

Who are the top defenses that Georgia Tech will face in 2023?

Jackson Caudell | May 30, 2023

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When you face a schedule as tough as Georgia Tech's, naturally you will meet some of the best defenses in the country. Per SP+, Georgia Tech will be facing multiple top-25 defenses in the country.

Well, what is SP+? I'll let ESPN's Bill Connelly explain his own advanced analytics system in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

I will update these numbers in May and August, after further transfers and roster changes have come about (and after I've had a bit more time to tinker with handling transfers and other factors). But for now, let's look at what SP+ has to say about the college football landscape.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date."

Connelly released his latest SP+ projections for 2023 last week and it showed the team's projected overall projection and where they are projected on offense and defense.

So who are the top defenses the Georgia Tech offense will face in 2023?

Georgia Tech vs Georgia — Georgia is the top projected defense that Georgia Tech will face in 2023 :: Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

To no surprise, the top projected defense on Georgia Tech's schedule is their rival, the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia is losing guys like Jalen Carter, Kelee Ringo, and Nolan Smith, but guys like Mykel Williams are ready to step in and Georgia is going to have one of the best and one of the most talented defenses in the country. They are projected to have the No. 3 defense in the country according to SP+.

The No. 2 defense on the schedule is Clemson (Projected to be No. 11 in the country on defense). The Tigers are losing some talented players and I am interested to see if they can remain an elite unit going forward. The linebackers will be very good, but there are questions elsewhere.

The No. 3 projected defense on the schedule is Louisville (No. 20). The Cardinal's defense will be the first that Yellow Jackets offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner faces in 2023.

Miami is projected for the No. 22 overall defense in 2023 and Hurricanes defensive coordinator Lance Guidry has talent to work with. Safeties Kam Kinchens and James Williams and defensive tackle Leonard Taylor are All-ACC type players.

The No. 5 projected defense on the schedule might surprise some, but it is Virginia. The Cavaliers had a good defense last season and should still be solid in 2023. Their offense is the question mark.

Georgia Tech quarterback Zach Gibson vs Virginia — Virginia is one of the most underrated defenses that Georgia Tech will face in 2023 / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

After UVA, there is a bit of a drop-off in the projections. Syracuse is the No. 43 projected defense, but they are losing some key talent in the secondary and I am interested to see if they reload in the back of the defense.

North Carolina is projected for the No. 55 defense and that seems high given their struggles in recent seasons. If the Tar Heels figure it out on defense, they could return to the ACC Championship.

Boston College is projected for the No. 63 defense and Wake is at No. 73. Bowling Green is projected to be one of the worst in the country at No. 128.

There are questions for this Georgia Tech offense, but if they can solve them, there aren't a lot of defenses that I am certain will be elite on the schedule outside of Georgia and Clemson and they can take advantage of that.

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