Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series: Purdue Returns Conference-Favorite Roster

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season. Next up, we'll discuss the reigning Big Ten champion Purdue Boilermakers, who return most of last year's roster.

Positioned atop the AP poll for seven weeks, Purdue cruised to Big Ten regular season and tournament titles.

But after earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers became the second team to lose to a No. 16 seed, as their impressive season came to an end against Fairleigh Dickinson. Coach Matt Painter returns largely the same roster from last year, highlighted by reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey, eager to avenge last season's first-round loss. 

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Next up, let's take a look at the Boilermakers.

(rankings per On3 Industry Average)

What they lost

• Pro/no eligibility: G David Jenkins Jr.
• Transfer portal: G Brandon Newman (Western Kentucky)
• By the numbers: Purdue returns its entire starting five and only lost a pair of backup guards. Jenkins averaged 3.9 points on 35 percent 3-point shooting and played 15.1 minutes per game. Newman averaged 6.0 points on 31 percent 3-point shooting and played 17.8 minutes per game.

What they gained

• Transfer portal: G Lance Jones (Southern Illinois)
• Freshmen: G Myles Colvin (No. 78)
• By the numbers: Purdue replaced two outgoing guards with Jones, a two-time All-Missouri Valley Conference player, and Colvin, who averaged 19.3 points at Heritage Christian School in Indianapolis. 

Roster

• Mason Gillis, 6-foot-6 senior forward
• Zach Edey, 7-foot-4 senior center
• Lance Jones, 6-foot-1 senior guard
• Ethan Morton, 6-foot-7 senior guard
• Caleb Furst, 6-foot-10 junior forward
• Braden Smith, 6-foot sophomore guard
• Fletcher Loyer, 6-foot-4 sophomore guard
• Brian Waddell, 6-foot-8 sophomore forward
• Trey Kaufman-Renn, 6-foot-9 sophomore forward
• Cam Heide, 6-foot-7 redshirt freshman forward
• William Berg, 7-foot-2 redshirt freshman center
• Myles Colvin, 6-foot-6 freshman guard
• Scholarships available: 1

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) celebrates as he is announced the player of the tournament after winning the Big Ten Men s Basketball Tournament Championship game against the Penn State Nittany Lions, Sunday, March 12, 2023, at United Center in Chicago. Purdue won 67-65 :: Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK

Biggest concerns

Purdue started the 2022-23 season with a 22-1 record through Feb. 1, but finished the year 7-5, with losses to Indiana (twice), Northwestern, Maryland and Fairleigh Dickinson. It's fair to ask if teams figured out the blueprint to beating the Boilermakers – pressure their freshman guards, force Edey to move away from the basket in pick-and-roll defense and make them win from beyond the arc. These themes were especially clear in a first-round loss to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, as Purdue shot 5-for-26 from 3-point range with 16 turnovers against the nation's smallest team by average height, and when Indiana freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino carved Purdue's defense with mid-range jumpers amounting to 35 points at Mackey Arena. So, can Painter find adjustments to combat these problems? He's proven that ability across 18 years and 400-plus wins at Purdue, but much of this will come down to players executing on the court. Last season, Purdue ranked 11th in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (32.2), ninth in threes made (239) and 13th in turnover margin, numbers that will have to improve in order to repeat as Big Ten champs. Edey's dominance will keep the Boilermakers near the top of the national rankings, but Smith and Loyer's development will determine the season's ultimate outcome. Both had good freshman seasons, averaging 9.7 and 11.0 points, respectively, but whether they can win in March is to be seen.

Reasons for optimism

Purdue returns 88.3 percent of scoring from a roster that won the Big Ten regular season title by three games, followed by a Big Ten tournament title. And most importantly, reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey withdrew from the NBA Draft and returned to West Lafayette for his senior season. There's no reason he can't go for 22 points and 13 rebounds per game and win the award again. Backup guards Brandon Newman and David Jenkins Jr. are Purdue's only roster departures this offseason, so Painter's squad knows what it takes to repeat as Big Ten champs. Freshman-like struggles from starting guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer plagued the Boilermakers in certain losses last season, but at least some of these issues should be minimized as the freshmen become sophomores. That'll have to happen if Purdue wishes to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Mason Gillis, Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman-Renn are also back, giving Purdue depth behind Edey and rounding out what could be the best overall front court in the Big Ten. Purdue brings in just one freshman, 6-foot-6 guard Myles Colvin, who could be an immediate-impact player. Colvin recently made the Team USA U19 roster for the FIBA Men's World Cup, a team that included current college athletes and 2024 recruits. He boasts a 6-foot-10 wingspan and provides high-level athleticism on the wing that Purdue lacked last season. 

The bottom line

Purdue enters the 2023-24 season as the Big Ten favorite because they return the entire starting lineup that won the conference regular season and tournament titles, while also adding two immediate-impact players. I'd argue Michigan State has a higher NCAA Tournament ceiling, but predict Painter wins his fifth Big Ten regular season title.

On Saturday, look forward to the next part of our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, featuring the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. 

The college basketball experts at Fanduel think that the Boilermakers are a legitimate Final Four team. They have the Spartans listed as plus-400 to reach the Big Dance, which is in Phoenix this year. Only Kansas (plus-350) has a lower odds. Purdue and Duke are also listed at plus-400. 

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