Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series: Wisconsin Leads Conference in Returning Production

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season. Next up, we'll discuss the Wisconsin Badgers, a team that returns its entire starting lineup and key bench players.

Wisconsin missed the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time since coach Greg Gard's inaugural season in 2017-18, aside from 2019-20, when the tournament was canceled. The Badgers were ranked as high as No. 14 last season, but failed to win back-to-back Big Ten games after the calendar turned to 2023. 

The roster is nearly identical to last season's, returning a Big Ten-high 92.1 percent of its scoring.

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Next up, let's take a look at the Badgers.

(rankings per On3 Industry Average)

What they lost

• Pro/no eligibility: None
• Transfer portal: G Jordan Davis (Illinois State)
• By the numbers: Wisconsin loses just one player, Davis, who started 18 of 35 games last year. In 20.5 minutes per game, he averaged 5.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and shot 30.8 percent from three.  

What they gained

• Transfer portal: G AJ Storr (St. John's)
• Freshmen: F Gus Yalden (No. 114), F Nolan Winter (No. 116), G John Blackwell (No. 249)
• By the numbers: Storr seems likely to play the most minutes of any newcomer due to Davis' departure. As a freshman at St. John's he started 17 of 33 games, averaged 8.8 points and shot 40.4 percent from 3-point range. Yalden gives the Badgers front court depth after playing at prep powerhouse La Lumiere in Indiana.

Roster

• Tyler Wahl, 6-foot-9 senior forward
• Steven Crowl, 7-foot senior forward
• Max Klesmit, 6-foot-3 senior guard
• Carter Gilmore, 6-foot-7 senior forward
• Chucky Hepburn, 6-foot-2 junior guard
• Kamari McGee, 6-foot junior guard
• Markus Ilver, 6-foot-8 junior forward
• Isaac Lindsey, 6-foot-4 junior guard
• AJ Storr, 6-foot-6 sophomore guard
• Connor Essegian, 6-foot-4 sophomore guard
• Chris Hodges, 6-foot-9 sophomore forward
• Gus Yalden, 6-foot-8 freshman forward
• Nolan Winter, 6-foot-10 freshman forward
• John Blackwell, 6-foot-3 freshman guard
• Scholarships available: Wisconsin is currently over the scholarship limit by one. Carter Gilmore and Isaac Lindsey began their Wisconsin careers as walk-ons before earning scholarships, so it's possible one or both returns to walk-on status to make room. 

Wisconsin guard Chucky Hepburn (23) and forward Tyler Wahl celebrate their lead during the first half of their game against Marquette on Saturday December 3, 2022 at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis :: Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Biggest concerns

Wisconsin didn't make many changes to a roster that went 20-15 overall and 9-11 in the Big Ten, which wasn't good enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. St. John's transfer AJ Storr and incoming freshman Gus Yalden provide an influx of talent, but Wisconsin is mostly banking on internal development and season-long health in order to get back to the Big Dance. The Badgers ranked 13th in the Big Ten in scoring and 140th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, which is mostly a product of their 337th-ranked tempo. Those numbers likely won't change too drastically next season, as Gard has always coached defensive-minded teams that control the pace, so it's fair to question how far they can go with a lack of significant offensive firepower.

Reasons for optimism

The entire starting five is back, including Chucky Hepburn, Connor Essegian, Max Klesmit, Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl. That lineup features four double-digit scorers and three players who shot at least 36 percent from 3-point range. Essegian was a member of the Big Ten All-Freshman team last year, and he joins Hepburn, Wahl and Crowl as potential All-Big Ten players in 2023-24. Wisconsin won't have to worry about building team chemistry with a new roster, which could make for an early-season advantage. AJ Storr was their only addition through the transfer portal. He averaged 8.8 points on 40.4 percent 3-point shooting as a freshman at St. John's, and is an upgrade from Jordan Davis, who transferred to Illinois State. Wisconsin ranked second in the Big Ten in 3-pointers made (276) and sixth in 3-point percentage (34.2), and those numbers are more likely to improve than decline. The Badgers also lost eight games last season by five points or fewer, so they really weren't far from an NCAA Tournament bid. A mid-season injury to Wahl didn't help either. And with a veteran group that turned the ball over less than any other Big Ten team, Wisconsin won't often beat itself. 

The bottom line

Wisconsin is a high-floor, low-ceiling team in 2023-24. They didn't make the tournament last year with mostly the same roster, but the Badgers should make the tournament somewhat safely this year, due to natural development throughout the roster and adding Storr to the rotation. I see Wisconsin finishing in the top half of the Big Ten, but well below the conference's elite, and earning between a seven and 10-seed in the tournament. 

That wraps up our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series this summer. For analysis on roster changes and 2023-24 season outlooks for all 14 Big Ten teams, check out the links below.

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