Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Against Louisville

Indiana meets Louisville Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium for a Noon ET kickoff. The Hoosiers need a clean game from Tayven Jackson, consistent pressure from its defensive front and to avoid "stupid" penalties. Score prediction included at the end.

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. – We should learn a lot about Indiana on Saturday.

Ohio State was possibly Indiana's most difficult opponent of the year, and Indiana State was likely the easiest. Louisville is somewhere in the middle after a close win over Georgia Tech and a blowout of Murray State.

Indiana has shown a mix of positives and negatives in its 1-1 start, but it's fair to wonder how much of that was due to its opponents and not itself.

Is Tayven Jackson ready to be a starting quarterback in the Big Ten? How much has the offensive line really improved? Can the defense consistently play at a high level? How about offensive and defensive coordinators Walt Bell and Matt Guerrieri? 

The questions go on and on. Some will be answered Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium, and some will linger all season. Regardless, this game represents an opportunity for Indiana to open a path to bowl eligibility or extend the downfalls of the last two seasons, so buckle up.

Here are three keys to an Indiana victory, plus a score prediction at the bottom.

Clean game from Jackson

Limiting turnovers is especially important for a young quarterback trying to pull an upset. Redshirt freshman Tayven Jackson made his first career start last week, and Indiana officially named him the starter on Monday after completing 18-of-21 passes for 236 yards in Week 2. Jackson didn't turn the ball over against Ohio State or Indiana State, but Saturday will likely be his first full game, as Indiana has no plans to rotate snaps between Jackson and Brendan Sorsby anymore. 

Jackson obviously has to play well for Indiana to win, but the defense has looked sturdy enough through two weeks to take some of the pressure off its inexperienced quarterback. And with the explosive Jaylin Lucas, as well as a number of talented receiving options, Jackson doesn't have to make every big play on his own.

D-line makes everything work

A steady pass rush and clogged running lanes is the heart of any good defense, and Indiana lacked that in 2021 and 2022. With transfer portal additions like Andre Carter, Marcus Burris Jr., Lanell Carr Jr., Philip Blidi and others, early signs have revealed an improved defensive front.

And when those four bring pressure on their own, it frees up the linebackers to make tackles and allows the secondary to avoid frequent one-on-one matchups. This was evident in Week 1 when Indiana limited Ohio State receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka to a combined five catches for 34 yards. The following week, the Hoosiers held Indiana State to just 93 total yards of offense. 

Louisville has some offensive firepower with quarterback Jack Plummer, running back Jawhar Jordan and wide receiver Jamari Thrash. If Indiana is able to limit their big-play ability, it starts up front.

Avoid "stupid" penalties

Allen didn't mince words when asked about the seven penalties that cost Indiana 60 yards against Indiana State. These included two running-into-the-kicker penalties, kick-catch interference, ineligible man downfield and a kickoff out of bounds.

"It was more just silly, I think, lack of focus mistakes," Allen said. "The other ones to me are just stupid, okay. Running into a punter should never happen. So we'll get them cleaned up. Obviously gave an earful to coach [Kasey Teegardin]. I love him to death, but he knows. We're in this together."

Though the penalties didn't have much of an impact on Indiana's ability to dominate Indiana State, these kinds of mistakes can really hurt against a team like Louisville. 

Prediction

Louisville 27, Indiana 24.

Tayven Jackson has the arm and mobility to one day be a good Big Ten quarterback, but his inexperience will come with a fair share of ups and downs. The defense is good enough to keep Indiana in this game, and I'm confident it will. Indiana was in a position to win multiple close games last year, but consistently struggled in the fourth quarter. Don't be surprised if Saturday follows a similar script.

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• INJURY REPORT: Indiana will be without quarterback Dexter Williams II and wide receiver E.J. Williams Jr. Saturday against Louisville, and five Hoosiers were listed questionable. CLICK HERE
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• GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Hoosiers need a clean game from Tayven Jackson, consistent pressure from its defensive front and to avoid "stupid" penalties. Score prediction included at the end. CLICK HERE
• OPENING LINE: Heading into a Week 3 contest at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indiana is a 9.5-point underdog against the 2-0 Louisville Cardinals. CLICK HERE