Pitt Expected to Regress in 2023

247Sports expects the Pitt Panthers to take a step back this season.

PITTSBURGH -- The Pitt Panthers are in the middle of their most successful two-year run since the 1980s. Despite churning out NFL talent, Pat Narduzzi's program has won an ACC Championship, 20 games over the past two seasons and finished ranked inside the top 25 at the end of consecutive seasons. 

But these good times aren't expected to last for the Panthers, according to 247Sports' Chris Hummer, who picked Pitt as one of the 10 teams he expects to "tumble" in 2023. He believes the Panthers have lost too much over the past offseason and is counting on a regression.  

"No matter which measure you pick, the Panthers are on the low end of returning production,"  ESPN slots Pittsburgh 119th nationally, while Action Network’s numbers have the Panthers with the second-least returning production in the Power Five."

Hummer still has faith the defense, which has been a consistent strength for Pitt for most of Narduzzi's tenure, but is wary of an offense that, in 2022, looked completely detached from the record-setting 2021 unit. 

"While there should be continued optimism for a defense that’s recruited well and produced year over year, I have questions about the offense’s direction," he wrote. "Pittsburgh pivoted away from the pass-heavy strategy that led to an 11-win season in 2021, and the offense tumbled to 59th nationally in yards allowed per play as a result."

Hummer added that graduate transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec could help provide a spark for the sluggish passing game but injury concerns could throw some cold water on that theory and a brutal out-of-conference schedule could as well. Combine that with all the Panthers have to replace on offense, Hummer is not bullish on Pitt in 2023.  

There’s an argument to be made that BC transfer Phil Jurkovec could provide a spark, but he hasn’t been healthy since the 2020 season," Hummer said. "The Panthers also lost a 1,400-yard rusher (Israel Abanikanda) to the NFL Draft and saw a 1,000-yard receiver (Jared Wayne) depart as well. That’s a lot of new even with the benefit of four o-line starters returning. Plus, Pittsburgh no longer benefits from an annual ACC Coastal schedule. Florida State is on the docket as is a trip to Wake Forest. Throw in a brutal non-conference slate that includes Cincinnati, West Virginia and Notre Dame, and the Panthers are likely to regress in 2023."

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