Florida vs. Kentucky game preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to expect as Florida and Kentucky meet in this Week 5 college football game with our updated prediction

College football's Week 5 action brings us an SEC East matchup that will decide, for a week at least, the No. 2 position in the division, as undefeated but unranked Kentucky hosts one-loss, No. 22 ranked Florida on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Florida and Kentucky face off, along with our Week 5 game prediction.

Florida vs. Kentucky preview, prediction

Florida vs. Kentucky picks, predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Florida vs. Kentucky game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Kentucky -1
Total: 43.5 points
Moneyline: UK -120 | UF -105
FPI pick: Kentucky 52% to win (More)

What to watch for

1. Turnover battle. Not handing over the football is always crucial, but especially in this series. UK kept the margin even or slightly in its favor in recent wins over Florida and given how up and down the Wildcats have played offense, it will be key to maintain control against a Gator defense that ranks 5th nationally in total production and is 1st in the SEC against the pass.

2. Get physical. Kentucky ranks 11th in college football by running the ball for 5.5 yards per carry on average. Key to that production is senior transfer tailback Ray Davis. He's averaging 6.3 yards per touch and has scored five times, plus he's fourth in the SEC with 314 total yards. Florida is 20th in FBS allowing 94 rushing yards per game, but that total swells to 108 in road games.

3. Gators' balanced attack. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz doesn't make a ton of highlight plays, but he's been a serviceable and efficient addition, hitting 78 percent of his throws, moving the chains when he needs to, and staying ahead of schedule. 

He's aided by a strong backfield of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, a duo that averages 8.4 ypc combined, hits the point of attack with burst and strength, and have the patience to wait for their blocks. UK's front line, led by Deone Walker at tackle, is in for a fight.

Florida vs. Kentucky prediction

Predicting the Florida vs. Kentucky game / USA Today Images

We don't really know Kentucky yet, given the teams it's played against, but so far the early returns on quarterback Devin Leary — under 60% passing, under 9 ypa, and 5 INTs — are enough to give pause. But in the meantime, UK has played admirably well against the rush, runs the ball well, and the defense has forced takeaways.

Kentucky has the bodies to clamp down on Florida's ground game early on, but the Gators are good at closing down throwing lanes in the middle third of the field, Mertz is finding enough medium gainers in the air, and Florida has the versatility to control the game down the stretch with its two-headed backfield.

College Football HQ predicts...

• Florida wins 29-24
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More: Florida vs. Kentucky score prediction by college football computers

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