Seattle Seahawks 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Rashaad Penny Rising in Value

New-look Seahawks could have a pair of dangerous running backs.

Shawn Childs | Jul 8, 2022

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Seattle Seahawks

The new era for the Seattle Seahawks started in the offseason after trading away QB Russell Wilson and having their first losing season (7-10) since 2011. The new beginning starts with QB Drew Lock and TE Noah Fant, blended with their two star wideouts (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett). The Seahawks’ defense struggled to get offenses off the field last year, leaving Seattle with many questions to answer before moving back up their division rankings. In addition, the running back position has a chance to be improved with the addition of Kenneth Walker and a late-season showing by Rashaad Penny.

Offense
Seattle ran the least amount of plays (908) in 2021. They ranked poorly in rushing and passing attempts. The Seahawks want to run the ball despite having impact talent in the passing game. The most significant difference this season will be the late-game wins by the quarterback position.

Quarterbacks

Drew Lock -- click here for fantasy projections

Geno Smith
When asked to start last year with Wilson injured, Smith passed 702 yards with five touchdowns and one interception over four games. His completion rate (68.4) was the best of his career while gaining 7.4 yards per pass attempt. He added nine rushes for 42 yards and one score.

Smith has a 13-21 record over his eight years in the NFL after getting drafted in the second round in 2013. He has more interceptions (37) than touchdowns (34). Over his first two seasons, Smith chipped in on the ground (72/366/6 and 59/238/1).

Fantasy outlook: I can’t see Smith winning the starting job for the Seahawks. His experience in their system is a plus, but he hasn’t done enough in the NFL to be trusted with the keys to their offense for 17 games. On the positive side, Drew Lock is far from an elite prospect.

Other Options: Jacob Eason

Running Backs
The Seahawks ran the ball well last year, leading to three-year highs in yards per carry (5.1) and touchdowns (15). However, their running backs failed to score in the passing game, with a low ranking in catches (59), receiving yards (462) and targets (68).

Rashaad Penny
Penny blew out his ACL in his left knee early in December of 2019, leading to a slow recovery and empty stats (11/34) the following season. Over his first 24 games in the league, Penny gained 947 combined yards with six touchdowns and 17 catches while gaining 5.3 yards per rush.

Last year, calf and hamstring issues led to minimal chances (17/43) and seven missed games over the first 12 weeks. Penny finished with four explosive showings (16/137/2, 17/135/1, 25/170/2 and 23/190/1) in the run game over the final five weeks. Seattle gave him only eight targets all year (six catches for 48 yards). He gained 20 yards or more on 11 of his 119 rushes, leading to 6.3 yards per carry.

Fantasy outlook: With 27 missed games over his first four seasons in the NFL, Penny has low mileage while bringing an explosive style in the run game of the Seahawks. A fantasy drafter must snub their nose at his career path and understand his potential with an entire season of touches. He has an ADP of 91 in the NFFC in early July. I expect him to win the starting job with a chance to touch the ball 275 times (1,400 combined yards with 10 scores and 25 catches.

Kenneth Walker III -- click here for fantasy projections

Chris Carson
After gaining over 1,300 combined yards in 2018 and 2019, Carson battled a foot injury the following year, leading to four missed games and no games with over 80 yards rushing. Seattle gave him 84 touches over the first five weeks. Over this span, he averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues (419 combined yards with six touchdowns and 21 catches).

Carson finished the year with 580 combined yards, three touchdowns, and 16 catches on 15.3 touches per game. He did gain 4.8 yards per rush with success also in yards per catch (9.1).

Last year, his season ended after four games (261 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches on 60 touches). In late November, Carson suffered a neck injury that required surgery (disc fusion).

Fantasy outlook: Carson is a wild card in this offense this year. Seattle won’t push him over the summer, and his injury may end his career. His ADP (232) in the NFFC puts him in the free-agent pool in most formats in the early draft season. For now, he is only a follow to see how his injury responds.

Other Options: Deejay Dallas, Travis Homer, Josh Johnson, Darwin Thompson

Wide Receivers
Over the past three seasons, the Seahawks’ wideouts accounted for about 69% of their receiving yards while scoring 71 touchdowns. The most significant difference from 2020 to 2021 was a regression in their catch rate (69.4 – 61.8).

DK Metcalf – click here for fantasy projections

FABIANO: The Fantasy Case Against DK Metcalf

Tyler Lockett
Despite dropping 25 targets from 2020 (137), Lockett gained over 1,000 yards for the third straight season. Seattle used him more in the deep passing game, with Metcalf battling a foot injury, leading to a spike in his yards per catch (16.1 – 10.9 in 2020). He finished with a career-high in yards (1,175), catches of 20-plus yards (22), and 40-plus yards (7). Lockett crossed the end zone 36 times over the past four years, covering 64 games. His catch rate (74.4) has been elite over this span.

Last year, he posted five impact games (4/100/2, 8/178/1, 12/142, 5/142/1 and 5/98/2) while adding help in two other contests (4/115) and 7/68/1). On his down days, Lockett scored fewer than 8.0 fantasy points in six games, giving him a boom or bust ride for fantasy teams.

Over the past three seasons, he ranked 13th (236.3), 8th (265.4) and 16th (241.4) in fantasy scoring in PPR formats

Fantasy outlook: The loss of Wilson invites regression in Lockett’s production. In July, he comes off the board as the 38th wide receiver in the NFFC. With 80 catches for 1,050 yards and five scores, Lockett projects to be a mid-tier WR2 in PPR formats. I expect him to outperform his ADP in 2022.

Freddie Swain
Swain owns an edge in speed (4.46 in the 40-yard dash) with enough strength to hold off defenders. His issues come with route running and movements when trying to create separation. He does protect well in the open field with reliable hands. For now, Swain needs to develop his plan and technique while showing he can handle top NFL cornerbacks in press coverage.

Seattle looked his way 21 times in his rookie season, leading to 13 catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Swain finished last year with almost double that output (25/343/4 on 40 targets). His best output came in Week 2 (5/95/1).

Over his final two seasons in Florida, he caught 52 of his 84 targets for 782 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Fantasy outlook: In 2022, Swain projects as the early leader to win the WR3 for the Seahawks. Seattle improved the tight end position in the offseason, pointing to a minimal role for their third wideout.

D’Wayne Eskridge
Over his final four seasons at Western Michigan, Eskridge caught 105 passes for 2,139 yards and 14 touchdowns on 195 targets. He gained 20.4 yards per catch while pushing his game forward in 2020 (34/784/8 over six games).

With defenses focusing on shutting down Metcalf, Seattle wanted to add another deep threat in the second round in 2021 to take advantage of single coverage on the outside. Eskridge brings speed to burn while creating an edge with his open-field ability. His route running needs plenty of work, pointing to a minimal role out of the gate. Seattle should get some early success out of him in the return game.

In his rookie season, Eskridge finished with 10 catches for 64 yards and one touchdown on 20 targets.

Fantasy outlook: His ceiling is high enough to win the WR3 job in his sophomore year. Eskridge is only a player to follow over the summer while being found in the free-agent pool in all formats. He missed time in June with a hamstring issue.

Other Options: Bo Melton, Marquise Goodwin, Penny Hart

Tight Ends
Despite having below-average talent at tight end, the Seahawks produced similar stats over the past three seasons. Their yards per catch ranked poorly each year while offering strength in their catch rate (73.2). This year, Seattle added an upgrade at tight end, but the change at quarterback does damper expectations.

Noah Fant
After delivering TE2 stats (40/562/3 on 65 targets), Fant improved to eighth and 12th in tight end scoring the following seasons with almost identical stats (62/673/3 and 68/670/4). He averaged 5.9 targets over his last 31 starts.

His only two impact games came in Week 6 (9/97/1) and Week 17 (6/92/1) in 2021, but Fant had eight games with 8.0 fantasy points or fewer. He gained over 100 yards twice in his rookie season (3/115/1 and 4/113/1).

Fantasy outlook: At the very least, Fant should have a baseline and chemistry with Lock. To deliver a top 10 fantasy tight end season, he needs the Seahawks to throw a few more balls to the position. Fant had an ADP of 149 in the early draft season in the NFFC while ranking 17th at the position. The early training camp reports out of Seattle suggest he is ready to take a step forward. His next step should be 75 catches for 850 yards and 5-7 scores. Fant should be a target as a TE2 while understanding he offers much higher value.

Other Options: Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Mabry

Kicker

Jason Myers
From 2018-20, Myers made 80 of his 88 field goals (90.9) with success from 50 yards or more (10-for-13). Unfortunately, he lost his way last season, leading to six missed field goals in his 23 attempts. His fade invites job loss risk. In his career, Myers was far from a lock when kicking extra points (239-for-265 – 90.2%).

Fantasy outlook: No one will fight for Myers in fantasy drafts over the summer. He also needs Seattle to create more scoring chances to draw more attention as a matchup play in 2022.

Coaching
Pete Carroll has a 152-104-1 record over 16 years as a head coach, with his best success coming with the Seahawks (119-73-1 and a Super Bowl title). He went 105-55-1 over the last 10 seasons.

Seattle snatched a piece of the Rams’ coaching staff by signing Shane Waldron to take over as their offensive coordinator in 2021. He has eight years of coaching experience in the NFL, with four seasons as the passing coordinator for the Rams and Seahawks. His pro coaching career started in 2008 with New England. Waldron starts the year at age 43.

Seattle slipped to 16th in points scored (395 – 64 fewer than 2020) and 20th in offensive yards. Their offense faded in back-to-back years.

Clint Hurtt takes over as the defensive coordinator after working as the Seahawks' assistant head coach and defensive line coach from 2017-20. His coaching career in the NFL started in 2014 for the Bears.

Seattle gave up 366 points (11th), an impressive finish considering they ranked 28th in offensive yards. Their defense struggled to get offenses off the field over the past three years.

Offensive Line
Seattle inched up to 11th in rushing yards (2,074) with 18 rushing touchdowns while gaining 5.0 yards per rush with 18 runs over 20 yards. Despite their success, they averaged only 24.3 rushing attempts per game.

The Seahawks regressed to 21st in passing yards (3,815) with 30 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Their offensive line allowed 46 sacks while only attempting 29.1 passes per game.

The first step in rebuilding their offensive line came in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft by adding LT Charles Cross. His style and strength project well in run blocking, but speed rusher may give him fits early in his career. Seattle may wheel out incoming rookie RT Abraham Lucas as a starter after selecting him in the third round this year. His ceiling looks higher in pass protection. The best chance for improvement comes from the combination of C Austin Blythe and G Gabe Jackson. Both players have plenty of experience in the NFL.

This offensive line is loaded with questions and risks. I expect growing pains with protecting the quarterback remaining an issue.

Free Agency
Seattle parted ways with two top players from their defense (LB Bobby Wagner and S D.J. Reed), who signed for a combined $69 million with the Rams and the Jets, respectively. The Seahawks offset their losses by bringing in LB Uchenna Nwosu and DT Quinton Jefferson. On offense, the only potential starting upgrade looks to be G Austin Blythe. TE Gerald Everett found a new home with the Chargers.

Draft
Besides their two additions on the offensive line and RB Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks invested four picks for the pass rush (DE Boye Mafe – 2.8 and DE Tyreke Smith – 5.15) and the cornerback position (Coby Bryant – 4.4 and Tariq Woolen – 5.10). Their final two darts came at the wide receiver (Bo Melton – 7.8 and Dareke Young – 7.12).

Defense
Seattle plummeted to 17th in rushing yards allowed (1,932 yards) with 16 touchdowns and eight runs over 20 yards. Rushers gained 3.8 yards per carry with 29.9 attempts per game. Their failure against the run was more of a volume issue due to their defense struggling to get offenses off the field.

The Seahawks repeated their 31st ranking in passing yards allowed (4,513) with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Their defenses finished with 34 sacks.

Their secondary has two above-average players at safety, but the cornerback position looks to be in full rebuild mode. LB Jordyn Brooks posted an incredible season in tackles (184), but receivers dusted him for many scores and yards with a high completion rate. Seattle must develop two other linebackers in 2022. No other player stands out on the defensive line.

Seattle has the coaching staff to put their defenders in good positions, but they can’t plug all those weaknesses in one offseason. As a result, I have no fantasy interest in the Seahawks’ defense in 2022.

Published Jul 8, 2022

SHAWN CHILDS