With Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray off the board, Atlanta should pivot this offseason and focus on quantity

Rather than giving up two draft picks and a $25M-30M salary for Blake Snell, focus on finding multiple quality options in free agency and trades

The Atlanta Braves went into free agency reportedly "determined" to come out of it with a frontline starter to add into the 2024 rotation of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton. 

Well, it might be more costly and difficult than initially expected. 

Aaron Nola, seen as the safest of the top starting pitching options due to his durability and consistency, turned down more money from Atlanta to return to Philadelphia on a seven-year deal. 

The Braves have reportedly turned their attention to Sonny Gray in response, but they shouldn't. 

UPDATE: The Cardinals are reportedly signing Gray to a multi-year deal.

Here's the thing: As we discussed a few weeks ago, any pitchers with a qualifying offer (Nola, Snell, and Gray) will cost Atlanta their 2nd and 5th-highest picks in the 2024 MLB Draft if they sign here as a free agent. 

(Yoshinobu Yamamoto will have a different expense outside of his contract - the posting fee, estimated to be around $30M. Even with that, he's still a perfect fit for Atlanta.)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Makes Most Sense for Atlanta Braves

If Atlanta doesn't sign Yamamoto, they should pass on Gray and Snell and focus on adding multiple starters pitchers in free agency.

The Case Against Blake Snell

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Snell, coming off of his 2nd career Cy Young victory (and an unanimous one at that) is seen by many as exactly the type of no-doubt frontline starter that should be coveted by most of the league in free agency. 

Despite that pedigree, there's reasons to be concerned about signing him to a long-term deal.

The first is what that deal will cost - as a client of noted super-agent Scott Boras, Snell's likely to demand a large outlay in both dollars and years. As our own Jake Mastroianni noted earlier today, the risk on a long contract is how the starter ages over the life of it. 

And while Snell's going to get paid off of his performance this season, he's unlikely to repeat it. Yes, he led all of baseball in ERA (2.25) and ERA+ (182), but Snell also led baseball in walks (99) and walk rate (5.8). His expected ERA (3.77) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.44) both significantly outpaced his actual ERA, a sure sign that regression is coming. 

Signing Snell to a $30M/year contract (and giving up two draft picks) is a risk when it's unlikely he'll live up to the cost as soon as next year, nevermind four or five years from now. 

The Case Against Sonny Gray

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And if the case for Blake Snell comes down to how he'll age over the life of the deal, Sonny Gray's got that same concern, but magnified. Turning 34 earlier this month, Gray's already on the back-side of that aging curve that comes for every single player, no matter how talented. It'll probably necessitate a shorter-term deal, three or four seasons instead of Snell's probable six or seven.

Additionally, it's not clear if Gray can replicate this season's performance. Going 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings (32 starts), it's the first time since 2015 that Gray pitched 180 innings in a season. He led baseball in lowest homer rate allowed, at only 0.4 HR/9, half of his career average. 

Add these factors together and now it's both unlikely Gray lives up to his platform year AND you're giving up multiple draft picks for a player that might be leaving in free agency (or retiring) right around the time you'd be expecting those draft picks to be making the majors and being ready to replace him in the rotation. 

Even if he comes in cheaper than Snell - and not significantly cheaper, but closer to $25M AAV than Snell's expected $30M AAV - it's not a great investment in the long-term health of your organization. 

UPDATE: The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly signing Gray to a multi-year deal.

So what should Atlanta do instead?

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Sign a pitcher that's not on a qualifying deal, and then supplement with a "buy low" rehabilitation project. 

If you can't get the highest quality option, go for quantity. 

There's quality starting pitchers available, in both left and right-handed varieties. Lefty Jordan Montgomery or righty Eduardo Rodriguez could immediately slot into the #3 spot in the rotation for 2024 and move up to #2 if Max Fried leaves in free agency. 

Behind them, a reclamation project in Lucas Giolito or Luis Severino could have an opportunity on a shorter two-year deal (or a one-year deal with a hefty club option) to return to their former glory and give Atlanta insurance were Fried to walk in 2025. 

There's also injured pitchers that you now have the 40-man roster space to carry while they rehabilitate various injuries and plan to return in 2025. Brandon Woodruff might be an expensive sign, but Tyler Mahle is exactly the type of pitcher to execute this strategy with, owing to Atlanta's familiarity with his surgeon and their comfort with rehabbing his Tommy John patients. 

The non-payroll costs are too high for Snell and Gray

Reminder, since the Braves paid the competitive balance tax last season, signing an qualifying offer recipient results in losing two picks. In the most recent draft, those two picks (2nd and 5th highest) would have been RHP Drue Hackenberg (#59 overall) and RHP Garrett Bauman (#126 overall). In 2022, the players that went at those picks for Atlanta were RHP JR Ritchie and C Drake Baldwin. For a team that's excelled in finding mid-round picks that can produce - Spencer Strider was a 4th round pick (2020), while Michael Harris II was a 3rd rounder (2019) and AJ Smith-Shawver was a 7th rounder (2021) - that's a high price to pay. 

Additionally, losing $1M in international bonus pool space would just further weaken a farm system that, owing to both trades and international signing restrictions for multiple years, is one of the worst-rated farm systems in MLB. 

Save the draft picks, sign multiple players, and use these open roster spots to your advantage. There's opportunities to find value while preserving all-important draft capital and international bonus pool space. 

(And also, by not committing $30M to Blake Snell or $25M to Sonny Gray, you've got more money available to extend Max Fried.)

Important Braves Today Offseason Stories
2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
Current Atlanta Braves 40-man roster
Key offseason dates for the Atlanta Braves
Projecting the 2024 Atlanta Braves' arbitration salaries

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