UPDATED: Atlanta's pursuit of starter Sonny Gray likely to end since he got a Qualifying Offer

How might the qualifying offer impact Atlanta's free agency pursuits?

There seems to be a consensus amongst Atlanta Braves fans and media members - general manager Alex Anthopoulos needs to go out and get another starter for the rotation. 

We've dug into this a bit in the past few weeks here at Braves Today, talking about the possibilities of Atlanta trading for Tyler Glasnow or signing Sonny Gray to be #3 starters behind Spencer Strider and Max Fried. 

But there's one complicating factor that hasn't really been addressed: the qualifying offer. 

What is the qualifying offer?

An anti-free agency mechanism in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that needs to be abolished, the Qualifying Offer is where certain free agents can be extended a one year contract for a set price - this season it's $20.5M - and if they don't accept it and reach free agency, their new team forfeits a draft pick (or multiple) for the signing and their old team receives draft pick compensation. 

It's been around since 2012, and only 13 qualifying offers have been accepted out of the 124 that have been extended. 

Atlanta's used it in the past - Dansby Swanson received and declined a qualifying offer, netting Atlanta a pick after the 2nd round, which they used to select Cade Kuehler out of Campbell University at #70 overall.  Freddie Freeman received a qualifying offer as well, getting Atlanta pick #76 in 2022, which they converted into RHP Blake Burkhalter out of Auburn University. 

(We have Kuehler at #10 and Burkhalter at #11 in our Braves Today organizational prospect rankings)

Signing a player with a qualifying offer

There's different levels of "punishment" that come along with signing a player that has rejected a qualifying offer. A team's highest first round pick is always exempt for forfeiture, but you could lose multiple other picks depending on your financial status:

* Did you pay the Competitive Balance Tax last year? 

If you did, you lose your 2nd and 5th-highest picks, as well as $1M from your international bonus pool for the next international signing period. If you sign another player that rejected a qualifying offer, you would then additionally lose your third and sixth-highest pick. 

* Did you receive revenue sharing monies this season?

If you did, you'll only lose your third-highest pick in the upcoming draft. If you sign a 2nd Qualifying Offer player, you'd also lose your fourth-highest pick. 

* None of the above

You lose your 2nd-highest draft selection as well as $500,000 from your international bonus pool. If you sign a 2nd player who rejected a qualifying offer, you'd then lose your third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000 in international bonus pool space. 

Atlanta paid the tax last season, so losing two draft picks would be costly. In the most recent draft, those two picks (2nd and 4th highest) would have been RHP Drue Hackenberg (#59 overall) and RHP Garrett Bauman (#126 overall). In 2022, the players that went at those picks for Atlanta were RHP JR Ritchie and C Drake Baldwin.

Which free agents are qualifying offer eligible?

The eligibility rules for a qualifying offer are that it can be used on a player one time in their career, and the player receiving it must have been part of your organization continuously from Opening Day through the end of the regular season. 

Looking at the free agent class, there's quite a few prominent names that are slam dunks to receive a qualifying offer: Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, and Blake Snell all are expected to receive (and reject) the offer as they sign multi-year deals for big bucks in free agency. 

But there's someone who has been talked about as a potential target for the Braves that might not end up in Atlanta if he gets a qualifying offer: Sonny Gray. 

Gray's played for four different teams over his eleven years in Major League Baseball, but he's never actually reached free agency: His one long-term contract was a three-year, $30.5M extension he signed with the Cincinnati Reds after being traded there in January of 2019. The Twins, who acquired him for prospect Chase Petty in March of 2022, exercised a $12.7M club option to retain him for 2023. 

It's not a guarantee that Minnesota will extend a Qualifying Offer to Gray - $20.5M is a lot of money for the Twins to pay if Gray accepts the offer, but if they think he'll walk in free agency, they'd be foolish not to extend him the offer. 

(Again, only 13 qualifying offers out of 124 have ever been accepted.)

And his stats say that someone will sign him - Gray pitched to a 2.79 ERA last year in 32 starts, his most since starting 33 games in 2014. It's the 2nd best full-season ERA of his career, and Gray led all of baseball in homer rate (0.4 HR/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (2.83). 

But will Atlanta want to give up two draft picks to sign him, even at a discount? I'm not so sure. The Braves haven't willingly given up a pick by signing a free agent with a qualifying offer, and that's a steep price for Atlanta to pay for what would, to them, be their #3 pitcher for 2024. 

If Sonny Gray receives a qualifying offer as the offseason kicks off, expect Atlanta to look elsewhere. 

UPDATE: Gray has officially received the qualifying offer from the Minnesota Twins

Here is the full list of players to receive a qualifying offer, per ESPN sources:

Shohei Ohtani
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
Cody Bellinger
Josh Hader
Matt Chapman
Sonny Gray

Players who didn't receive it: Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins, Mitch Garver

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 6, 2023

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