COLUMN: If the Braves don't make a top-of-the-market free agent signing, that's fine

It's starting to feel like the Atlanta Braves are planning to "run it back" in 2024, with just minor changes, and that's not a bad thing

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Atlanta Braves have been quiet in free agency. 

It's not for lack of trying, mind you - Atlanta reportedly offered Aaron Nola $27M per year before he returned to the Philadelphia Phillies for less money annually on a seven-year deal. 

The Braves were then publicly linked to Sonny Gray before he signed with St. Louis on a three year, $75M deal that can hit four years and $100M if the attached club option is exercised. 

So, what now? 

I honestly don't know if Atlanta's going to make a splash in free agency at this point. I also don't know if they need to. 

Did Atlanta NEED to sign a frontline starter this offseason? 

A lot of the reporting coming out as the World Series wrapped and the offseason got started, including right here at Braves Today, was that Atlanta was "determined" to come out of the free agency frenzy with a "frontline starter" and were willing to spend real money to do it. 

But so far, it hasn't happened. 

The "frontline starter" options aren't completely spoken for, mind you - Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and two-way sensation (and two-time unanimous MVP) Shohei Ohtani are all still available - but that trio of options are less likely to sign with Atlanta than Nola or Gray were, owing both to market forces and the expected costs of their contracts. 

But why are we so focused on signing a starter? Do we really need one?

Admittedly, that's the wrong question to be asking. Atlanta used 16 different starting pitchers in 2023, a team record. You can never have enough starting pitching. 

But do we need a frontline starting pitcher? 

Not necessarily, no. 

The 2024 rotation isn't bad - Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton are your top three, with Bryce Elder as your fourth starter and several younger players - Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, Darius Vines and prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep - all available for the 5th spot in the rotation and spot starts. 

That'll get it done, theoretically. 

But here's the thing: 

Running it back doesn't feel good

Atlanta lost the NLDS to the Phillies because the offense - the same offense that set records in the regular season, that tied the single-season homer record and set the single highest team slugging in baseball HISTORY (.501) - scored their lowest run total of any five game stretch in 2023.   

And most of those players that set those records are coming back - Atlanta has eight of nine lineup spots already locked in for 2024, with only left field a question at the moment. 

But that doesn't make you feel good about not upgrading the pitching staff, not at all. 

2022's postseason elimination, conveniently ALSO at the hands of the Phillies and ALSO in the Divisional Round, saw Atlanta's pitchers come in rather vulnerable - Max Fried, suffering from a virus, lost ten pounds that he didn't really have to spare in the days leading up to the game. Spencer Strider was coming back after an oblique injury. Both got SHELLED by Philly. 

This season, Charlie Morton's finger injury meant that Bryce Elder was elevated to the Game Three start - the same Bryce Elder that pitched to a 5.11 ERA in the 2nd half as he dealt with the largest workload he'd ever faced - and it didn't go well: six runs on two homers and five hits in 2.2 innings. 

But most of Atlanta's pitching acquisitions - all of them, technically - have been relievers: Trading for Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar. Signing Reynaldo López, and re-signing Joe Jiménez and Pierce Johnson. 

Yeah, we're going to let López stretch out for starts, and Kowar was a starter for most of his time in the minors and majors. But they'll mostly be relievers for this Braves squad in 2024.

This is shaping up to be an awesome (and expensive) bullpen. 

But the rotation? You don't have to sign anyone to get through 2024.  

And maybe it's for the best. That trio of starters - Nola, Gray, and Snell - all received qualifying offers and would require forfeiting two draft picks, the 2nd and 5th-highest in 2024 - to sign them. 

On a six year contract for Aaron Nola, one of the most durable starters in baseball for the last few years, you could have lived with that. 

But three years (at $25M AAV) of Sonny Gray? Those players you would have drafted with those two draft picks would be about ready to debut when his contract was up. And instead, he'd be walking and you'd have less prospects available to potentially replace him. That's a large price to pay.

So I get it. From a long-term perspective, it's not a great decision. 

Think about the future - Alex Anthopoulos is

Don't get it wrong: Alex Anthopoulos is looking at the long term here. He's not just trying to win in 2024 - he's trying to win in 2024, and 2025, and 2026, and beyond. 

Giving up two valuable draft picks to have a 4th "stud" in the 2024 rotation isn't worth it (for most of the options out there - I honestly think it was probably worth it for Nola, honestly, and judging by the leaked $27M AAV contract offer, so did Alex Anthopoulos.)

And look: Atlanta could not add a single starting pitcher, let Vaughn Grissom learn on the job in left field, and still make the postseason next season. They're the betting favorites to win the 2024 World Series right now. Does that change, potentially, if one MLB club goes out and adds a lot of high-impact players? Maybe Atlanta drops to 2nd or 3rd. 

But barring catastrophe, the Braves are essentially a lock to make the postseason. 

And that's really what matters. 

Just get there. Give yourselves a chance.     

Sometimes you'll get knocked out because the offense didn't deliver (2023). Sometimes you'll get knocked out because the pitching wasn't there (2022). Sometimes you'll make a deep run, coming up just short of making the World Series (2020). 

And sometimes, just sometimes, you'll win the whole dang thing. 

And the more swings you get, the more likely you are to connect with one. 

The Braves are maximizing their at-bats. It's the smart thing to do.

It's not satisfying. But it's smart.

(Ed. note: This content previously appeared with the title "The Atlanta Braves aren't coming out of the offseason with a splash, are they?" The content of the story has not changed, just the title.)

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