March Madness Sweet 16 Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Arkansas vs. Gonzaga

Against the spread bets for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup between No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 4 Arkansas in the West Region.

SI Editorial | Mar 23, 2022

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The West region of the men’s March Madness bracket is all chalk. The top four seeds remain alive heading into the Sweet 16, and No. 4 Arkansas and No. 1 Gonzaga get the second weekend of action going Thursday night.

Both teams had scares leading into this game but they’re still alive with an Elite Eight bid up for grabs and a shot at either No. 2 Duke or No. 3 Texas Tech standing in the way of a trip to New Orleans for the Final Four.

Matt Ehalt joins me once again to break down and bet this game.

Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 19-16-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 16-23-1

Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook

No. 4 Arkansas (27-8) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (28-3)

Time: 7:09 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Arkansas +9.5 (-119) | Gonzaga -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Arkansas (+325) | Gonzaga (-450)
Over/Under: Under 155 (-110) | Over 155 (-118)

Arkansas’ Path

The Razorbacks haven’t exactly dominated en route to the Sweet 16. Arkansas is the lone SEC team still standing and it squeaked by No. 13 Vermont and No. 12 New Mexico State to set up its date with No. 1 Gonzaga, which seemed like a collision course when the bracket was initially released.

Arkansas downed Vermont, 75-71, in the round of 64 behind 21 points from Stanley Umude. The round of 32 brought on New Mexico State and Teddy Allen, coming off an upset win over No. 5 UConn. The Hogs won a low-scoring affair, 53-48, thanks to 18 points from JD Notae, who has not shot well in the tournament (10-34).

Gonzaga’s Path

The Bulldogs avoided a pair of major upset bids in the first two rounds to avoid suffering Baylor’s fate as a No. 1 seed that suffered an early exit. Gonzaga dominated Georgia State down the stretch for a 93-72 win after leading by just two points at halftime. Memphis led the Zags by 10 at the break in the round of 32 before they stormed back and scored an 82-78 win thanks to a big game from Drew Timme. The junior has led the team in scoring in both tournament games so far.

Kyle Wood’s Bet: Arkansas +9.5

The Razorbacks have three losses by double-digit points all season. I’m betting that doesn’t happen for the fourth time in their biggest game. It’s a curious game considering neither team has covered the spread in either of its tournament games. Still, taking the points seems safe enough. Arkansas can win outright considering how close Gonzaga played its first two tournament games, and the Razorbacks play much better defense than either of the Bulldogs’ first two opponents. Jaylin Williams will have his hands full with Timme and Chet Holmgrem inside and Notae will have to shoot at a higher clip, especially against a stout defense like the Bulldogs’, but the way the first weekend unfolded, it’s hard to see Arkansas getting rolled.

Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Arkansas +9.5

This seems like a high spread considering how Gonzaga has played thus far. Gonzaga has not been the best team in the tournament, although the Bulldogs showed resolve in rallying from a 12-point deficit to defeat Memphis in the second round.

Gonzaga is just 15-14-2 (ATS) this year per teamrankings.com, while Arkansas enters with a 20-15 mark. Arkansas has only lost one game in 2022 by more than 9.5 points, though that happened in the SEC semifinals versus Texas A&M.

The Razorbacks have enough offense to keep this game competitive, but it’s their defense that should allow them to stay within 10 points. Arkansas ranks 14th in defensive efficiency at KenPom, and just held New Mexico State to 48 points on 34% shooting and 23% from three-point range.

Let’s not forget Arkansas also beat a hot team in Vermont to open the tournament.

The key will be for Jaylin Williams to have a strong game as Arkansas’ four-guard set could run into issues if Williams gets into foul trouble. Gonzaga is going to have the size advantage in this matchup, but that presents perimeter chances for Arkansas.

I’m just ultimately not comfortable laying 9.5 points here considering how shaky Gonzaga has been ATS this season, including the tournament.

Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook

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Published Mar 23, 2022

SI EDITORIAL