March Madness Sweet 16 Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Saint Peter’s vs. Purdue

Against the spread bets for Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup between No. 3 Purdue and No. 15 Saint Peter’s in the East Region.

SI Editorial | Mar 24, 2022

In this story:

Friday’s meeting between No. 15 Saint Peter’s and No. 3 Purdue is historic.

Whether the Boilermakers wipe the floor with the Peacocks or if the small school from New Jersey keeps its run alive, it will mark only the third time in NCAA tournament history that a No. 15 seed participates in the Sweet 16.

The oddsmakers respect Purdue’s resume and star power, installing the Boilermakers as 12.5-point favorites—the largest spread of the round by a wide margin.

Matt Ehalt and I make our picks for the game in the wide open East region.

Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 22-17-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 17-26-1

Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (21-11) vs. No. 3 Purdue (29-7)

Time: 7:09 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Saint Peter’s +12.5 (-110) | Purdue -12.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Saint Peter’s (+600) | Purdue (-1000)
Over/Under: Under 134.5 (-110) | Over 134.5 (-118)

Saint Peter’s Path

You probably already know how the Peacocks got here. Against all odds, they knocked off No. 2 Kentucky in the round of 64 with an 85-79 overtime victory. That would’ve been a memorable enough March Madness story in its own right—then, the Peacocks took down No. 7 Murray State, 70-60, to keep the dance alive. Now, here they are, the third-ever No. 15 seed playing in the second weekend, joining 2021 Oral Roberts and 2013 Florida Gulf Coast. No 15-seed has ever reached the Elite Eight though.

Purdue’s Path

Purdue’s journey is nowhere near as exciting as Saint Peter’s. The Boilermakers got by No. 14 Yale easily in the round of 64. Future lottery pick Jaden Ivey scored a game-high 22 points in a 78-56 Boilermakers victory. Then, Purdue beat No. 6 Texas, 81-71, thanks to Trevion Williams’ contributions off the bench and a few daggers from Ivey. The Boilermakers are now the highest remaining seed in their region with No. 1 Baylor and No. 2 Kentucky both out of the tournament.

Kyle Wood’s Bet: Saint Peter’s +12.5

Too. Many. Points. There’s not a whole lot of precedent for 15 seeds in this spot, but they are 2-0 against the spread (and 0-2 straight up). Oral Roberts nearly upended No. 3 Arkansas last March, ultimately losing 72-70 as 11-point underdogs. And FGCU covered a 13-point spread against No. 3 Florida all those years ago—the Eagles lost 62-50. The Peacocks are here for a reason—they beat two good teams in two very different ways. Against Kentucky, Saint Peter’s outshot its opponent and rode a couple of hot hands to victory in a shootout. And versus Murray State, the Peacocks held the Racers nearly 20 points below their season average and lived at the free-throw line.

It should be noted Purdue is 2-0 ATS in the tourney and the size advantage it will have with Zach Edey and Williams inside is almost laughable. Still, I like a backdoor cover for the Peacocks.

Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Saint Peter’s +12.5

I’ve already made it known I’m backing Saint Peter’s in this game and even willing to do it on the moneyline. So, yes, I’ll take the 12.5 points.

As I mentioned when I chose Saint Peter’s to cover against Kentucky, the reason I trust the Peacock’s is their top-30 KenPom defense. They have an elite facet of their play, and defense tends to travel during the postseason.

Now, yes, Purdue has an elite offense, ranking second. This is going to be a tough test for Saint Peter’s. But Kentucky (5) also had an elite offense, and Murray State (35) also has a top-tier offense. Saint Peter’s managed to beat both teams.

Taking Saint Peter’s here is also an acknowledgement that Purdue is known for flopping in big spots and the Big Ten has been terrible in this tournament. Only Purdue and Michigan are left after the other contenders were exposed in the first two rounds.

The concern here is the few days off allowed Saint Peter’s players to read a few too many stories saying how great they are, but 12.5 points is such a huge spread. Add in that Purdue is 15-20-1 ATS according to teamrankings.com (albeit 2-0 in this tournament), and we have our bet. I’m a Peacock, you gotta let me fly!

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More Betting, Fantasy and College Basketball:
• Final Four, Championship Game and Champion Bets
• Betting Advice: Which Region Will Win it All?
• Betting Advice: Saint Peter’s Futures
• Betting Advice: Championship Game Matchup, Outcome
• Duke Bettors Suffer Stunning Bad Beat
• How to Bet March Madness
• Top-Four Seeds Against the Spread
• Fantasy Impact: Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins
• Sweet 16 Rankings
• Re-Picking the Bracket

Published Mar 24, 2022

SI EDITORIAL